Vadodara, 16 September 2012

Narendra Modi , it seems has mastered this art of turning the tables on his opponents after being cornered election after election . In the past too, there have been instances when media and the poll-pandits had predicted a downfall for him . Even the public sentiment seemed to be going against him for a brief period on a couple of occasions, but this bachelor of political science put his guile on display and won handsomely. 2012 is turning out to be the same , although its too early to comprehend the final outcome.

The Congress camp was considerably upbeat about the Gujarat elections about a fortnight back . Its poll strategies finally seemed to be working and the throne appeared within reach. Hope had been ignited in their mind that finally they would come to power after a long hiatus. The anti-incumbency seemed to be growing against Modi . Keshubhai factor would be helping the congress cut down BJP vote . Modis malnutrition comments to a foreign paper drew a lot of flak. Things seemed to be tailor-made for the congress to make a comeback. But the events in the last 15 days may prove to be a game-changer.

The first trouble for BJP was the scarcity of rains. Drought like situations coupled with farmer suicides was proving to be a major headache. But the rain gods finally blessed the state of Gujarat bringing a smile on the face of Modi as well! In the run-up to the elections the BJP camp was pretty complacent . It was Congress who surprised one and all with its planning . The ‘Ghar nu Ghar’ scheme , though spurious , turned out to be a master stroke . It generated massive support among the poor , unsuspecting and uneducated people. It was this support for the Congress which woke up the BJP from its slumber. This proved to be a much needed wake up call for the BJP. But the only mistake Congress made was that it acted too early. It has already promised cheap housing , cheap loans, cheap land , cheap education , free laptops for the students. It hardly has anything left to offer now, and the elections are atleast 2 months away. . Modi may have realised that the only way to tackle populism is through populism only. So, the govt has revived Gujarat housing board schemes for cheap housing for the poor . It has started the distribution of economic aid to around 20 lakh BPL families .The govt has also announced relaxations in farmers loans. In a way Modi is literally opening a Pandora’s box of freebies to surge ahead of the opposition.

The diesel price hike will prove to be another major turning point in the countdown to the elections. This hike has provided Modi & co, with readymade ammunition to fire . It has also dented the pro aam admi image that the Gujarat Congress had been trying to build for itself. The common man does not understand the intricacies of how much VAT the state govt is charging , he is only concerned about the rate he gets it. I also have a strong intuition that Modi would significantly reduce the state levied taxes on fuel at the fag end of the campaign mobilising popular support for him . The Vivekanand Yuva Vikas Yatra will turn out to be masterstroke. Traversing through the length and breadth of the state , Modi , just like Pied Piper would charm all the attention and support towards him. Being the orator that he is , and given the issues and time that he has at hand , he would be synonymous with a Sehwag plundering the opposition on a placid track for all 5 days of a test match .Importantly , Modi seems to have selected his target audience in the Youth . It is the youth who are his biggest admirers. With his development doing the talking , his facebook , twitter and Google Hangout appearances just add to the youth appeal . And it is not a co-incidence that people under the age of 35 make up around 60% of the populace in Gujarat!

So , the stage is set for the penultimate test for Modi. The next few days will be a testimony to his skill and character. Will the Congress bite the bullet yet again? Only time will tell!