Pakistan is trying hard to provoke India into a military confrontation
like the `Operation ParakramÂ’ type. The Mumbai terrorist attacks and
subsequent sabre-rattling by Pakistani political leaders and the media
including allegations of air intrusions and deliberate soft policy
towards UN Security Council banned Jamaat-ud-Dawaa (JUD) are all meant
to escalate tension with India and is part of an overall strategy
vis-a-vis the proposed US surge-strategy in Afghanistan, now under
preparation by the Chief of the Central Command, General Petraeus.
The Pakistani government and the Army are fully aware that the US and
UK governments have the wireless intercepts of the conversations
between the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and the terrorists while operating
in Mumbai about the full involvement of the LeT in the Mumbai strike
and therefore are fully convinced about terrorism having its origin in
Pakistani soil. In spite of this the demand from President Zardari,
Prime Minister Gilani and the Pakistani media that India should
produce proof to Pakistan highlights that Pakistani Army and its pawn
government have decided to brazen out the terrorism originated in
Pakistani soil. Their purpose appears to be to blackmail US and test
the incoming President ObamaÂ’s will to assert his surge strategy in
Afghanistan.

In a sense India, by not walking into the Pakistani trap of
provocation through terrorism, has upset the plans of the Pakistani
Army. India should now carefully assess the likely next moves of
Pakistan. In all probability Pakistan Army will try other terrorist
attacks on India to provoke India to retaliate through military
measures. It is hoping to use that as an alibi not to cooperate fully
with US in the war against Taliban and also to interrupt US supply
lines through Taliban terrorist attacks on convoys. The Pakistani
generals are hoping through this strategy they can continue to milk US
aid, tire US and NATO forces and compel them to withdraw, take over
Afghanistan under their control and bleed India through thousand cuts.

Pakistani generals have an exaggerated view of their strategic
planning ability. In 1947 General Akbar when tried to overrun Kashmir
The result was MaharajahÂ’s accession to India and Indian Army being
able to take over two thirds of Kashmir. In 1965 Pakistani Generals
tried out Operation Gibraltar – penetration into Kashmir – and attack
with a second armoured division into Punjab. They were beaten back.
In 1971 they pushed 10 million refugees into the Indian soil from
Bangladesh. That led to the secession of Bangladesh. In 1999
Musharraf thought that he could surprise India through stealthy
penetration into Kargil heights and suffered a humiliating defeat.

This time the Generals are out to provoke India into a war and bleed
it, and tire Americans out of Pakistan. The likely result will be if
the Afghan Taliban and Pakistani Taliban succeed in their resistance
to the Americans, then the Pathans on the two sides of the Durand
line may unite to form Pashtinistan, the long time time dream of
Pathan tribesmen and secede from Pakistan. The Pakistani Army faces a
greater threat from the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban than
it does from the Indian Army. The one person who clearly understands
this threat to Pakistan is the President-elect Obama. It is therefore
highly likely that if Pakistani Generals attempt to blackmail the new
US administration the US strategic community will counter them with
the argument that if the Pakistan Army withdraws its forces from the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) it may risk the integrity
of Pakistan. If the Taliban tastes victory in ousting the Americans
and the NATO from Afghanistan the secession of Pashtinistan is a
virtual certainty. The Iranians are likely to intervene and help in
the breakaway of Dari (Persian) speaking and Tagill and Uzbek areas
from Afghanistan.

The Russians and the Chinese have to take into account the
consequences of the dissolution of Afghanistan and the rise of a new
Wahabi Pashtinistan and its impact on various Central Asian Republics
and Islamic areas of Russia and China. Pakistan should also consider
the present economic situation. The world, except for a few countries
like China and India, is in a recession. Pakistan itself needs the
rescue of the International Monetary Fund package to be saved from
bankruptcy. In the present circumstances with oil price being very
low Saudi Arabia is unlikely to come to the rescue of Pakistan.
Therefore there are limits to what Pakistan can do to defy the US and
try to drive a hard bargain with it.

The Pakistani Generals therefore should not once again try to be over
clever and think they can out smart the entire world. In fact they
are playing with fire and with the territorial integrity of Pakistan.
Unfortunately the mistakes of the US Administration over the last
eight years appear to have encouraged the Pakistan generals to believe
that they can again cheat the US and get away with it. However
Democratic resident Obama cannot afford to fail in his surge strategy
even as the departing President Bush is successful in the surge
strategy in Iraq.

Therefore it is very essential for the strategic communities of India
and US to get together and devise a common strategy to deal with the
plans of the Pakistani generals to frustrate the proposed US strategy
in Afghanistan, continue their campaign of terror against India and in
the process to destabilise the entire region. Till now the US
strategic community formulated its strategy in Afghanistan entirely on
its own. A time has come for US to shed its unilateralism and consult
India in respect of its Afghan strategy. President-elect Obama has
indicated that he would no longer persist in the counter productive
unilateralist strategy. The Pakistani Generals are putting in Obama
to test.

Jamnagar (PTI):

Post the Mumbai terror attacks the Indian Air Force (IAF) have increased frequency of drills at its airbase here, sources in the Air Force said on Sunday.

“We have a few firing ranges in India and one of them is located in Jamnagar. The firing range here have been used by other air bases on a regular basis. Their aircrafts come here complete the drill and return to the respective bases,” they said.

“We have got information that our activities are being monitored by radars from across the borders. So we need to be prepared for all kind of situations. And hence that number of training tasks at the firing range in Jamnager have gone up, post Mumbai attacks,” sources said.

One such anti-hijacking mock drill was conducted here yesterday, with the involvement of the airport authorities, the local police and district administration, defence spokesperson Satish Menon told PTI.

“We hold anti-hijacking mock drill periodically in order to monitor the response time unders such situations. Here we also involve the local police and the district administration as they too need to be aware of how to tackle the terror situation,” he said.