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Gujarat’s Lok Sabha results: Scanning of Saurashtra verdict

Gujarat’s Lok Sabha results: Scanning of Saurashtra verdict
Contributed by our correspondents in Saurashtra region,17 May, 2009



Rajkot:Congress’s biggest success in Gujarat this election

BJP lost Rajkot seat for the first time after 1991. Main reason for this debacle is well-known now. The party leaders went against local workers wishes while selecting Rajkot candidate. The party’s Gandhinagar brigade didn’t follow procedure, didn’t consult Rajkot locals and selected Kiran Patel as a top-down candidate. Kiran Patel had not worked for the party for even a single day in his life. In fact he was inducted into the party just before two days before his candidature was announced. Kiran Patel is Kadva Patel. Even Kadva Patel leaders told Purushottam Rupala that they did’t want Kiran patel as candidate. Kadvas even gave Rupala options, but he didn’t listen. Party deserted sitting MP Vallabh kathiriya who is Leuva Patel due to his rebel activities during assembly elections. Kiran Patel’s communication was poor. He couldn’t connect with the voters or party workers. Voters couldn’t connect with him. Congress selected strong sitting MLA as a candidate. Bavalia, an accused in a multi-crore land scam and murder case, contesting the elections after his release on bail from a month-long period in jail in December, became a non-issue. Whole Congress worked unitedly and aggressively because the party had chance to fight Lok Sabha election after a long time. Modi’s public meetings could do just little because the candidate was weak and he was chosen by none other but Modi.

Rajkot is the biggest loss for the BJP in Gujarat this election. Dictatorial attitude of party leaders sitting in Gandhinagar proved dangerous. When cadres were not happy, candidate was weak and unpopular what you can expect is defeat and thats what happened.

Porbandar:Congress’s tasted leader vs BJP’s newer candidate

Vitthal Radadiya is one of the strongest Congress men in Saurashtra. He is a man of villages and villagers. He faces 16 police cases, some of them are very serious criminal cases. Radadiya, an MLA from Dhoraji-Jamkandorana lost Porbandar seat just by margin of 5000 votes last election. This election, due to delimitation, Rajkot district’s Dhoraji, Gondal and Jetpur were added to Porbandar seat. These are strong areas of Radadiya and therefore he was confident of winning this time from day one. Radadiya worked hard for his victory because he had past experience of loosing the seat just by 5000 votes margin. Wherever he went, Patel voters found a leader in him. Congress cadres stood rock solid with him. BJP selected comparatively a poor candidate. Congress’s up-hand on Rajkot seat also impacted positively on whole Rajkot district whose some areas are parts of Porbandar seat. Though Porbandar and Kutiyana voted heavily in favor of BJP candidate Mansukh Khachariya, Vitthalbhai earned significant gains in Rajkot district’s areas of Jetpur, Dhoraji and Gondal. And he won.

Surendranagar:BJP could win but Congress won this lowest turnout seat

BJP has lost some of it’s workers and leaders due to personal ego clashes with Modi. Somabhai Patel is one of them. Last year, Surendranagar’s MP Somabhai Gandalal Patel went to meet Narendra Modi in his office at Gandhinagar and Modi made him sit outside his office for hours. Somabhai was completely ignored by Modi though he was an MP. Somabhai came back to Surendranagar and openly revolted against Modi to become a rebel leader. He openly worked against the party in assembly elections in which his son was Congress candidate from Viramgam. Later Somabhai was suspended from the party. He voted for Manmohan Singh government in Lok Sabha during Vote of Trust. Somabhai contested Surendranagar election on Congress ticket this time and won by margin of 4837 votes.

Surendragnar is an area where government’s major development schemes have failed. This sleepy, less populated, heat-bed, salt and cotton area witnessed Somabhai Patel, a Koli candidate from Congress and ex-Congress man Laljibhai Mer, another Koli from BJP as candidates. As both candidates were from Koli community, voters of other communities were less interested in election this time. Many of BJP’s non-Koli supporters didn’t go for vote. In fact Surendranagar witnessed lowest voting turnout this election. Government’s failed execution of development schemes in this area added difficulties for BJP. Somabhai could be defeated with some extra efforts. It seems, BJP’s root level cadre organisation in the district was not much amused with the candidate that the party selected. Sombhai got huge amount of surplus votes in Viramgam and Dhandhuka areas while BJP candidate Lalji Mer received thin margin in Dasada, Limbdi, Chotila, Dhrangadhra and Vadhvan assembly areas. BSP candidate Mohanbhai Patel cut 31,971 votes which are believed to be BJP votes.

Jamnagar:Not just candidate, BJP needs a leader here

BJP occupied Jamnagar as a secure seat for two terms till 2004 but thenafter Jamnagar is Congress’s strong bastion. Development has not reached this district. The Reliance Refinery just imports crude oil and exports it. It has no larger linkages with locals. Congress got lead in Dwarka, Khambhalia, Jamnagar(North) while BJP got more votes than Congress in Kalavad, Jamnagar(rural), Jamnagar(South) and Jamjodhpur. Congress’s winning candidate and sitting MP Vikram Madam is Ahir by cast. Analysts say Ahir votes went with Congress. There is no need to say that BJP candidate was weak and newer compare to sitting MP Madam. In fact BJP needs a leader in Jamnagar and not just candidate.

Bhavnagar:Congress missed a chance given by Gordhanbhai

Bhavnagar is BJP bastion, but sitting MP Rajendrasinh Rana was worrying this election as MahaGujarat Janata Party’s Gordhan Zadafia could spoil his victory chances. However, though Zadafia secured over 1,56,000 votes, BJP could win this seat by a narrow margin of over 5,000 votes. Independent candidate Harin Makwana secured over 12,000 votes and cut Congress’s votes. Congress missed an opportunity given by Gordhanbhai’s MJP to win this seat. Bhavnagar has always backed BJP and support continued solidly, this election also. Modi’s popularity in this area also played a role.

Kutch:New candidate won due to excellent organisation

BJP has excellent organization in Kutch. Modi is popular in this district. Though Punamben was newer candidate, she could win thanks to unity and strength of Kutch BJP organization that backed her. Congress worked hard but it’s root level organization is not as rich as BJP’s in Kutch. It is because Congress has given fewer MLAs in last some years compare to BJP in this district. In 2007 assembly elections, BJP was victorious on all seats in Kutch leaving just one Rapar seat. It’s good news that BJP was plus on all assembly segments including Rapar in Lok Sabha result. If Punamben doesn’t perform this would be her first and last victory because people of Kutch are vigilant and Congress has learned lessons in this election, how to win Kutch in 2014.

Junagadh:BJP’s good choice of candidate reflected in result

BJP’s choice of candidate was excellent in Junagadh. Dinubhai Solanki is popular MLA from Kodinar. He has a strong and committed local team. He was full of confidence and effective communication. Congress’s sitting MP Barad faced some anti-incumbency in public and even in party’s local ranks during the election. Results say, Dinubhai was plus in Somnath, Kodinar, Visavdar and Mangrol assembly segments while Congress candidate was plus in Una and Junagadh assembly areas. Congress’s lead in Junagadh should be a shocking news for the BJP because Junagadh city has always been with the BJP in past. Even Junagadh Municipal Corporation is run by BJP. Some of the corporators in Junagadh had joined Congress before the election.

Amreli:It was about Congress’s poor choice of candidate

BJP’s victory on Amreli seat was certain. Sitting Congress MP Thumar’s name was involved in agricultural scam. Congress didn’t give him a ticket but selected his wife as a candidate. Shadow of scams didn’t leave her. People were not happy, so as local Congress cadres. Naranbhai Kachhadia was BJP’s good choice. Mahuva and Rajula voted overwhelmingly for BJP to give it a comfortable winning margin while Amreli town and Gariyadhar voted for the Congress but didn’t give enough margin to win. It should be noted that Mahuva was added to Amreli seat after new delimitation so as Gariyadhar.


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Comments

  1. Desai says:

    Thanks Mr Japan to share this information…Better luck next time to BJP…I wish modi will read this!!!!!!!!

    Jay Hind

  2. uttam says:

    DUE TO DIVIDED HINDU COMMUNITY THIS IS POSSIBLE,LOOKING TO HUGE DEVELOPMENT IT SHOULD NOT LOOK GOOD,SUBCASTISM PAYS HUGE LOSE IN FUTURE.MY PERSONAL REQUEST TO ALL HINDU LEADERS ,HINDU ORGANIZTION,HINDU SANT TRY SWARNA-DALIT UNITY FIRST.

  3. real Gujarati says:

    brother uttam, but yr thoughts are divisive. No place for communalism in this world. U hv to stay in Guj under modiji’s CHATRA CHHAYA. Other parts of India is hell for u while other parts of India are better place for secular minded ppl.

  4. db says:

    i don’t belive in any analysis for BJP loss or congress win.

    but this election prove following..

    we like bomb blast. and wish to have more like those.
    we like to print more money and like to raise inflation..
    we like to get india in more debt..
    we like the people who don’t work and inspire the corruption, misorganise
    we like reservation / quota system by religiouse by certain category so india always remain devided.
    and on top of this, in 1 billon people are crap and we want some one from some other country who don’t have collage degree and we like to select our as leader..

    and we will not change because we use to live like this since last 60 years..

  5. dear j.p.
    i,red the feelings ,imotions,heart fear, and reality with perfect details in “GUJARAT ANDER-BAHAR BLOG.”
    such an eye openning information.since the result came out,i am not able to sleep.i,screamed,cursed bad wards
    and many,many things i,did to calm down my anger.i,love my indians,i,love my people,i,love my country.
    since 26 years being out of the country,there is not a single day ,i,became happy with with happyness of my country and became unhappy and sad with something went wrong in my country.if monsoon starts late
    and everyday i,pray for rain in my country.
    i,think this example is enough to express my bondage with mother land.
    modiji is not personally related to me.i,never met him.he came in picture after my exit out the country.
    but when i,heared him,via you tube in so many occassion regardless political or non political i,am impressed.
    than i,show that as reality in gujarat.i,experinced those wonderful things and some how i,became the devotee
    of that ironwill,strong,dedicated,educated,learnred,visionist one of the best orator,and so,many other things.
    i,have never seen this kind a personality in gujarat-indian politics.
    recently i,heared every singal election speech,i,saw the stamina,dyanmic power,his dedication amazing.
    he delivered every singal topic related to national harmony,agricalture proble,dearness,recession.morality
    of p.m.office,family dynasty,slavery of one family,news manufacturing,news traders,news merchants,
    national security,national internal and external situation,how the responcible people became cheap for votes,
    and so ,many right things.i,think after hearing him even an impotent man gets the energy to active his
    reproductive system,but look what indian voters did?shame on them.
    i,wrote before but let me mention one more time that people must ready to pay heavy duty penalty
    for their misdeed.i,donot have wards or i,donot have ability to express but let me tell you that ,this
    country is but more and more will be the playing toy of catholic missionary.the pseudo moderate,psuedo
    secular,the high society people,the ,the hi-fi society,the convent and bolly wood calture,the english lover,
    the western manner lover will sell this country.it has been sold already.in history there was only one
    amichand but now india has millions and millions heritage of amichand.
    i,pray that india creat so many narendra modi,so,many varunji and so,many people like them.
    the verdict of election is the saddest verdict for india.

  6. In spite of being a fan of Narendra Modi, I also agree with the correspondents. It was the arrogance of top party officials sitting in Gandhi nagar, which turned the results down. They believed that they could get anyone elected based on the name of the party. But, It was really a very big mistake by projecting an unknown and crorepati candidate in Rajkot.
    BJP might have given home to the orphaned Nano and kept the industrialists happy but has forgot to resolve the issues at local level.

    Is Modi going on the way Chandrababu Naidu did? Lets see!

  7. Porbandar says:

    Porbandar’s BJP pramukh is a mine mafia himself. He is involved in a murder of a congress leader before last state elections. People in Porbandar have lost trust in BJP completely now. BJP Mafias are doing exactly what Congress Mafia GodMother used to do in Porbandar during chimanbhai patel govt.

    People really love Modi but It is fact that Modi has not done anything for them. Law and Order situation of the town is really terrible.

    Why a criminal person has to be BJP leader ? Can BJP not find a good person to lead party in the town ? As long as those mafias are part of BJP. BJP will keep loosing Porbandar seat in both state and centre election.

    These local criminal BJP politicians were the reason that a lot of BJP supporters did not go to vote. Most of them have lost interest completely.

    Modi if you are awake ………….Kick out these criminals from our town Porbandar now. We had enough.

  8. Niraj Doshi says:

    About rajkot, u are completely correct.

    Kiran Patel has only made(looted) money in Rajkot in the name of Educational institutions. The institutions holded by him are the most expensive institutes in rajkot.

    And i personally feel, kuvarjibhai was better and lovable candidate from rajkot than Kiran patel.

    Second thing Narendra Modi ran to most of indian states for campaigning, but the problem was the local candidates were not strong enough for whom people can vote. And people from Tamilnadu, UP, Himachal etc cannot vote BJP candidate of their constituency only because Modi is doing good in Gujarat. The local leader themselves must be strong.

  9. KENT says:

    THIS KIND OF ANALYSIS IS GOOD. LET US ALL WORK TOGETHER AND THINK WHAT IS GOOD FOR NATION. IN ELECTION THIS ALWAYS HAPPENS. I HOPE NEXT GENERATION WILL BECOME MORE PRO-ACTIVE FOR THE NATION.. MOST THINKING PEOPLE KNOW THAT SMART BRAINS ARE WASTED IN INDIA…

  10. Majboor says:

    Well. People of Gujarat has shown that they don like arrogance & arrogant leader. Narendra Modi did not behave like a chief minister is expected to. He has prooved old saying : Vinash kale viparit buddhi”. BJP made suicidal mistake by promoting him as prospective candidate for Prime ministership.

    Niraj Doshi has very correcly pointed out that Kiran Patel has looted under the name of education.Wondering why the party selected him in the first place who has no experience in the field. He should have confided himself to his own field…………………

  11. Deepak Upreti says:

    I HAD TOURED SAURASHTRA DURING THE ELECTIONS. YOUR ANALYSIS IS MORE OR LESS CORRECT. Modi seemed to be a popular leader in Saurashtra and has appeal cutting across the party line. But there was no “Modi wave” as expected by his supporters . Is there a disconnect now between him and the people of Gujarat ? Should he not be reaching out more to people and consolidating and expanding base in his state before nursing a pan-Indian political ambition. It was 14-12 in 2004, it is 15-11 in 2009- Congress can out wit BJP anytime. He should watch out his steps.

  12. uttam says:

    SEE IN THIS ELECTION ACCORDING TO ME BJP MAINTAIN SEATS AS WELLAS %OF VOTES,LOSE IS ONLY RAJKOT SEATS,BUT PEOPLE OF RAJKOT WITH MODI,MAY BE THEY ARE AGANIST KIRAN PATEL BUT NOT MODI,PEOPLE KNOW THE WORKING PATTERN OF MODI,SO IN NEXT COMING ELECTION OF VIDHANSABHA FOR MAY BE 5 TO 7 SEATS BJP DEFENATLEY GET VICTORY AND IN ALSO CORPORATION ELECTION BJP GET VICTORY.

  13. Mafat Patel says:

    Heavy defeat may leave India’s BJP in the wilderness

    HATE CAMPAIGN

    The BJP may have lost votes, especially in India’s most populous state of Uttar Pradesh, after an alleged “hate speech” against Muslims by Rahul Gandhi’s estranged cousin, Varun.

    Varun Gandhi, a BJP candidate who won his seat, was filmed saying he wanted to cut off the hands of anybody who threatened Hindus, which set off a huge media uproar and led to his arrest.

    Gandhi said the tape of his speech was doctored in a political conspiracy, and the BJP stood behind its candidate, later released from jail.

    Another factor that may have put off voters was talk of Narendra Modi, a leading figure of the Hindu right, as a future leader.

    Modi, chief minister of Gujarat, has been tarnished by some of the country’s worst religious riots in the state. Some 2,500 people, mainly Muslims, died under Modi’s watch.

    “The BJP faces the same dilemma as the Republican party is facing today in the US,” said Surjit Bhalla, managing director of Oxus Research and Investments. “They are not able to convert anybody new. They will have to make a distinct break from the right-wing elements.”

    Bhalla said the Congress also appeared to have seized the reform agenda from the BJP traditionally seen as business-friendly.

    “The BJP did more reforms, were more positive towards the markets, primarily because the Congress had the communists behind its shoulder,” said.

    “And now I think we’re getting back to the fact that Congress will be a major party of reform again. That’s the big story.” —Reuters

    Source ;

    http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/world/27012-heavy-defeat-may-leave-indias-bjp-in-the-wilderness

  14. Porbanadar says:

    Mr Modi do something special for porbandar, just analise porbandar voter ration like there are 20k voter from muslim and 18 k voter from Kharava samaj they are right from bigining with congress. and Mer samaj voter are 35 k aprox. so any candidate from from Mer samaj standing from congress they dont have to do much to win the election. Porbandar is always Mafia’s gudh but voter are sensitive.
    Porbadar is one of the best tourist destination there are lots of potential to developement for tourist. you must know only porbandar’s TORAN tourist bunglow making money rest of all the tourist bunglows in gujarat making losses.

  15. Amit Sharma says:

    All said and done, is it true that the recently elected representative from Rajkot Kunwarji Bavalia has been to jail in Gondal for land dealings and is now on bail? If this is the case, then days of Chimanbhai raj are not far.

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