Gujarat’s Lok Sabha results: Scanning of Saurashtra verdict
Gujarat’s Lok Sabha results: Scanning of Saurashtra verdict
Contributed by our correspondents in Saurashtra region,17 May, 2009
Rajkot:Congress’s biggest success in Gujarat this election
BJP lost Rajkot seat for the first time after 1991. Main reason for this debacle is well-known now. The party leaders went against local workers wishes while selecting Rajkot candidate. The party’s Gandhinagar brigade didn’t follow procedure, didn’t consult Rajkot locals and selected Kiran Patel as a top-down candidate. Kiran Patel had not worked for the party for even a single day in his life. In fact he was inducted into the party just before two days before his candidature was announced. Kiran Patel is Kadva Patel. Even Kadva Patel leaders told Purushottam Rupala that they did’t want Kiran patel as candidate. Kadvas even gave Rupala options, but he didn’t listen. Party deserted sitting MP Vallabh kathiriya who is Leuva Patel due to his rebel activities during assembly elections. Kiran Patel’s communication was poor. He couldn’t connect with the voters or party workers. Voters couldn’t connect with him. Congress selected strong sitting MLA as a candidate. Bavalia, an accused in a multi-crore land scam and murder case, contesting the elections after his release on bail from a month-long period in jail in December, became a non-issue. Whole Congress worked unitedly and aggressively because the party had chance to fight Lok Sabha election after a long time. Modi’s public meetings could do just little because the candidate was weak and he was chosen by none other but Modi.
Rajkot is the biggest loss for the BJP in Gujarat this election. Dictatorial attitude of party leaders sitting in Gandhinagar proved dangerous. When cadres were not happy, candidate was weak and unpopular what you can expect is defeat and thats what happened.
Porbandar:Congress’s tasted leader vs BJP’s newer candidate
Vitthal Radadiya is one of the strongest Congress men in Saurashtra. He is a man of villages and villagers. He faces 16 police cases, some of them are very serious criminal cases. Radadiya, an MLA from Dhoraji-Jamkandorana lost Porbandar seat just by margin of 5000 votes last election. This election, due to delimitation, Rajkot district’s Dhoraji, Gondal and Jetpur were added to Porbandar seat. These are strong areas of Radadiya and therefore he was confident of winning this time from day one. Radadiya worked hard for his victory because he had past experience of loosing the seat just by 5000 votes margin. Wherever he went, Patel voters found a leader in him. Congress cadres stood rock solid with him. BJP selected comparatively a poor candidate. Congress’s up-hand on Rajkot seat also impacted positively on whole Rajkot district whose some areas are parts of Porbandar seat. Though Porbandar and Kutiyana voted heavily in favor of BJP candidate Mansukh Khachariya, Vitthalbhai earned significant gains in Rajkot district’s areas of Jetpur, Dhoraji and Gondal. And he won.
Surendranagar:BJP could win but Congress won this lowest turnout seat
BJP has lost some of it’s workers and leaders due to personal ego clashes with Modi. Somabhai Patel is one of them. Last year, Surendranagar’s MP Somabhai Gandalal Patel went to meet Narendra Modi in his office at Gandhinagar and Modi made him sit outside his office for hours. Somabhai was completely ignored by Modi though he was an MP. Somabhai came back to Surendranagar and openly revolted against Modi to become a rebel leader. He openly worked against the party in assembly elections in which his son was Congress candidate from Viramgam. Later Somabhai was suspended from the party. He voted for Manmohan Singh government in Lok Sabha during Vote of Trust. Somabhai contested Surendranagar election on Congress ticket this time and won by margin of 4837 votes.
Surendragnar is an area where government’s major development schemes have failed. This sleepy, less populated, heat-bed, salt and cotton area witnessed Somabhai Patel, a Koli candidate from Congress and ex-Congress man Laljibhai Mer, another Koli from BJP as candidates. As both candidates were from Koli community, voters of other communities were less interested in election this time. Many of BJP’s non-Koli supporters didn’t go for vote. In fact Surendranagar witnessed lowest voting turnout this election. Government’s failed execution of development schemes in this area added difficulties for BJP. Somabhai could be defeated with some extra efforts. It seems, BJP’s root level cadre organisation in the district was not much amused with the candidate that the party selected. Sombhai got huge amount of surplus votes in Viramgam and Dhandhuka areas while BJP candidate Lalji Mer received thin margin in Dasada, Limbdi, Chotila, Dhrangadhra and Vadhvan assembly areas. BSP candidate Mohanbhai Patel cut 31,971 votes which are believed to be BJP votes.
Jamnagar:Not just candidate, BJP needs a leader here
BJP occupied Jamnagar as a secure seat for two terms till 2004 but thenafter Jamnagar is Congress’s strong bastion. Development has not reached this district. The Reliance Refinery just imports crude oil and exports it. It has no larger linkages with locals. Congress got lead in Dwarka, Khambhalia, Jamnagar(North) while BJP got more votes than Congress in Kalavad, Jamnagar(rural), Jamnagar(South) and Jamjodhpur. Congress’s winning candidate and sitting MP Vikram Madam is Ahir by cast. Analysts say Ahir votes went with Congress. There is no need to say that BJP candidate was weak and newer compare to sitting MP Madam. In fact BJP needs a leader in Jamnagar and not just candidate.
Bhavnagar:Congress missed a chance given by Gordhanbhai
Bhavnagar is BJP bastion, but sitting MP Rajendrasinh Rana was worrying this election as MahaGujarat Janata Party’s Gordhan Zadafia could spoil his victory chances. However, though Zadafia secured over 1,56,000 votes, BJP could win this seat by a narrow margin of over 5,000 votes. Independent candidate Harin Makwana secured over 12,000 votes and cut Congress’s votes. Congress missed an opportunity given by Gordhanbhai’s MJP to win this seat. Bhavnagar has always backed BJP and support continued solidly, this election also. Modi’s popularity in this area also played a role.
Kutch:New candidate won due to excellent organisation
BJP has excellent organization in Kutch. Modi is popular in this district. Though Punamben was newer candidate, she could win thanks to unity and strength of Kutch BJP organization that backed her. Congress worked hard but it’s root level organization is not as rich as BJP’s in Kutch. It is because Congress has given fewer MLAs in last some years compare to BJP in this district. In 2007 assembly elections, BJP was victorious on all seats in Kutch leaving just one Rapar seat. It’s good news that BJP was plus on all assembly segments including Rapar in Lok Sabha result. If Punamben doesn’t perform this would be her first and last victory because people of Kutch are vigilant and Congress has learned lessons in this election, how to win Kutch in 2014.
Junagadh:BJP’s good choice of candidate reflected in result
BJP’s choice of candidate was excellent in Junagadh. Dinubhai Solanki is popular MLA from Kodinar. He has a strong and committed local team. He was full of confidence and effective communication. Congress’s sitting MP Barad faced some anti-incumbency in public and even in party’s local ranks during the election. Results say, Dinubhai was plus in Somnath, Kodinar, Visavdar and Mangrol assembly segments while Congress candidate was plus in Una and Junagadh assembly areas. Congress’s lead in Junagadh should be a shocking news for the BJP because Junagadh city has always been with the BJP in past. Even Junagadh Municipal Corporation is run by BJP. Some of the corporators in Junagadh had joined Congress before the election.
Amreli:It was about Congress’s poor choice of candidate
BJP’s victory on Amreli seat was certain. Sitting Congress MP Thumar’s name was involved in agricultural scam. Congress didn’t give him a ticket but selected his wife as a candidate. Shadow of scams didn’t leave her. People were not happy, so as local Congress cadres. Naranbhai Kachhadia was BJP’s good choice. Mahuva and Rajula voted overwhelmingly for BJP to give it a comfortable winning margin while Amreli town and Gariyadhar voted for the Congress but didn’t give enough margin to win. It should be noted that Mahuva was added to Amreli seat after new delimitation so as Gariyadhar.
|<< Previous Post|