The name of Gujarat Congress’s energy drink is 2009
Ahmedabad, 27 August 2012
This is the seventh article of JP’s ‘Gujarat Election 2012′ series on DeshGujarat. In this series, the first article was about the possible election schedule, the second article made the point that Gujarat elections in 2012 are incomparable with Gujarat assembly elections of the past. The third article was about abolished seats. The fourth article was about newly added seats. The fifth article was about changes in the reserved seats for SC/STs and its impacts over political career of RC Faldu, Nitin Patel, Pradipsinh Jadeja and others. In the sixth article I shared the final delimitation order with some historical background.
In the first season of this series, I tried to cover the subject of new delimitation as widely as possible. In the second article of this series I clearly stated that because of the new delimitation effect, the elections of Gujarat assembly in 2012 shall be incomparable with any other assembly elections in the past.
Fine, but there’s some scope of comparison, when you look at the results of Lok Sabha elections 2009.
The elections of Lok Sabha in 2009 were held as per the new delimitation order. Every Lok Sabha seat contains several assembly seat areas, and in detailed document of results, one can easily get a detailed assembly seat wise picture.
There’s a difference between 2009 and 2012. There’s a difference between Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections. There’s a difference between a Lok Sabha candidate and a Vidhan Sabha candidate. There’s a difference between LK Advani for PM and Narendra Modi for CM campaigns.
Yes, but having said that, I must say that Lok Sabha results at least show us a clear picture of party wise committed number of votes in each of the assembly seat area.
And following this, when we look at the 2009 Lok Sabha poll results of Gujarat, two conclusions are; (1) BJP still was the no.1 party in Gujarat in 2009 and (2) Congress was unavoidable and a formidable second force.
As per the details of the 2009 Lok Sabha results, Congress won more votes than their nearest rival the BJP on 75-80 seats. This figure was higher compared to the Congress’s strength in the assembly which is between 50-60. It should be mentioned that 91 seats is the majority mark to capture power in Gujarat. BJP was at around 105 seats – down from its current strength in the assembly at around 120.
As I said before, predicting assembly poll results on the basis of Lok Sabha results is a faulty practice(I will throw more light on this in my next article in this series). But there’s no doubt either that Lok Sabha results provide at least some idea about the standing of the parties.
Both the BJP and the Congress have prepared detailed reports on the basis of Lok Sabha results and have figured out the booth wise picture. The BJP has marked the booths into A,B,C,D & E categories. Booths under ‘A’ category are the strongest for the party while booths under ‘E’ category are the weakest. Congress too has figured out where its position is stronger than the BJP and where it is weak. While the BJP is trying to convert its weak areas into stronger ones, Congress party on the other hand is focusing solely on its strong areas and also on narrow gap pockets. Congress leaders know that their weak areas (the urban ones) need no attention because they are too loyal to the BJP and really hard to convert.
In the last few months, I have constantly observed the Congress party’s extra-activeness. They seem rather too confident of winning the Gujarat elections this time, not only in public, but even in their closed door meetings. Their oxygen, or let’s say their energy drink are the 2009 results. As I said, in the 2009 Lok Sabha results the BJP was 15 seats above the majority mark (in the assembly), but the Gujarat Congress believes that if it could get 77 seats in 2009, it can certainly get 14-15 more seats by employing extra efforts and sustained hard work in 2012 and can touch the majority mark this way. Congress men believe that Gujarat is not an impossible task for them. So-called Keshubhai Patel factor, poor monsoons, good response to ghar nu ghar scheme, anti-government mood in government employees etc. adds more energy to Congress’s dreams.
But is the Gujarat Congress’s energy drink actually a mirage? Read the next article of this series.
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I didn’t heard of Keshubhai’s since many days? I am sure there wont me much takers of bunch of looser and pathetic clowns, but still would like to know any minor impact on up coming election by his opportunist outfit?
JP, I would like to extend heartily thanks for much commendable positive Journalism..
JP,
In your next articles please analyze effects of ‘Ghar nu Ghar’ scheme.
you are doing good job by making very valuable detail analysis which is very hard to get on regular news paper. I would also like to read your some article in near future about all gujarati media honesty toward bjp, congress or journalism? just for your knowledge: you are so far from the question itself only reason is your positive attitude on news instead of paid & biased news. if you can read your email…where I did your web link to my all friends who are residing abroad with me in usa & europe…once again great job
Thank you very much JAPAN BHAI….. I congrtulate you for your positive news reportimg….
I hope and pray that all news papers would follow some kind of GUIDE LINE to protct, preserve our ancient cultural heritage….. THE way todays news broadcasting is there , I think we will forget our CULTURAL HERITAGE and will become slave of diiferent kind……. I know I am right, ….. CONGRESS party is the MOST responsible for our MORAL DECAY, THEY have taught us CORRUPTION….. THE way nation runs, I do not think you will find any MORAL-ETHICAL person in nation…. NO offense to anyone, ……AGAIN Thanks JAPAN….My views are some what RADICAL but I see as is…. CONGRESS HATAO, DESH BACHAO…. JAY HIND….
BJP – 105, Congress – 70, Others – 7. Japanbhai lakhi leo.
Mr. J.P. one of the very good briefly analysed articles. I have read on Elections. Eagerly await your next. Article. Indeed I would be. Indeed perplexed if I don’t see my Magical. No 160. But understand. There are also people in society who may be wrongly partial to congress. And vote accordingly while reaping benefits. Of Shri Namojis team work and his leadership. All these yrs.
Such parasites in society. One shld expose and those. Voters very loyal to BJP. And it’s dear leader Namoji. ,because of whom guj has marched so forward. And heading all states. And being huge contributor to India, must make door to door campaign exposing this GREEDY NONSENSE of CONGRESS. VOTERS..
Pl ask Smriti Irani convenor of. Bjp Mahila SAngh. To spread this. To all houses. In Gujarat. Just like progress of guj. Is for all, be the voter Muslim or Hindu or Christian,, may I say. That the great work of Shri Modijis Team. And Entire Bjp. And all Gujarati Voters who voted for BJP. Are in fact. Fully And Equally. Responsible for this growth of Gujarat And the CONGRESS. VOTERS The So called Secularists Are merrily enjoying all the benefits.
Congress is. Losing out. One by one in all states. ,they probably will be thrown out of. Assam and North East also..
Look forward for your next one Mr. Japan. Thank you.
I remember that some candidates chosen by state team including CM were not given tickets by BJP parliamentary board headed by a powerful group within BJP under the influence of disgruntled elements like Togadia, Madhu Kulakarni, M G Vaidya etc. If BJP does not give free hand to state team, it is going to lose. State Team too must put in lot of efforts in proper selection of candidates. This done, I am highly confident of BJP getting best result in its history. Many rural people like Bharwad and other backward communities are strongly with the BJP apart from Urban communities. No need to be in dilemma.
KESHUBHAI recent win in nagarpalika elections in saurashtra is a worry some or not for BJP in reaching a comfortable victory,he is not best in rest gujarat but would like to know how much impact can he make in his area and would that benefit congress to a larger extent in helping them make even a govt of GPP and Congress
Pls revert ASAP
This time BJP will get more that last time because over all congress image is very down as well as Keshubhai’s supporter are more congressmen then BJP so even those will vote Congress will loss.
BJP – 131 Congress-45 GPP-3 Other -3
Nice analysis Japan. You should also not forget that after 2009 loksabha elections, there have been scandals of unheard scale which has exposed congress. Secondly, after 2009 there have been assembly by elections, panchayat elections and municipal elections and BJP has triumphed big time in all those elections. So don’t forget to mention these elections. These elections contained many loksabha constituencies. Does it mean that BJP has successfully breached committed voters of congress ? Please also don’t forget that BJP has lost recent by election of Mansa (which is a setback) and Gandhinagar municipal election(which is congress stronghold, so its not a important loss).
Considering all these election results, I believe BJP is in a very strong position and on the way to win more than 130 seats, unless our gullible voters don’t get in the greed of free house, free land promises of congress. They need to know that nothing is free. Everything comes at a price.
I hate congress tactics of free houses and land. This is a proof that congress has nothing to do with development and how lowly they think about Gujarat voters.
Good point Jignesh ji, and thank you Japan bhai.
I want to make an observation on the honey trap that COngress has laid with its ghar nu ghar “scheme”. Delhi Congress rode to victory on identical promise. But it, as expected, did not, could not deliver on that election promise. secondly, the congress Adarsh scam in Mumbai by congressis should remove all doubts from people’s minds that ghar nu ghar “scheme” is the biggest scam waiting to happen should congress come to power.
The 3rd point is Modi govt has rehabilitated hundred of thousands those displaced from narmad project and sabarmati project into modern housing. The fact that congress would think ghar nu ghar would have some credibility among ita takers surely is a tribute to modi that gujarat is now able to consider such expensive scheme. I think some experts need to come out and expalin why this plan is unreal and won’t happen, certainly not without the state budget going into so deep red that gujarat’s bond rating would be at junk level. we have already seen how the sub prime housing “scheme” in usa, a close cousin of ghar nu ghar, made huge bailouts of banks necessary and brought about recession. to expect any federal entity to bailout gujarat state is unthinkable. this congressi scheme will blow such a huge hole in the financial viability of gujarat that it is not a plan at all. my two cents.
BJP: 130-135 (140 can be expected for once)
Congress+ GPP (Alliance): 32+12= 44-45 (Not more than 45)
Others: 4
Narendra Modi will be CM for only 2 months after Gujarat election. He will be declard PM candidate in early January.