An interesting pattern that the voters of Gujarat follow consistently
Ahmedabad, 12 September 2012
This is the eighth article of JP’s ‘Gujarat Election 2012′ series on DeshGujarat. In this series, the first article was about the possible election schedule, the second article made the point that Gujarat elections in 2012 are incomparable with Gujarat assembly elections of the past. The third article was about abolished seats. The fourth article was about newly added seats. The fifth article was about changes in the reserved seats for SC/STs and its impacts over political career of RC Faldu, Nitin Patel, Pradipsinh Jadeja and others. In the sixth article I shared the final delimitation order with some historical background. In seventh article I talked about the results of 2009 Lok Sabha polls in Gujarat perspective. Now here is the eighth article in this series.
Alright, in last article we discussed how in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Gujarat Congress secured more votes than their rival BJP on some 75-80 seats, and how this figure is working like an energy drink for the Congress(because half mark is 92 seats and they think with some extra efforts and manipulations they can touch the mark).
I briefly mentioned in last article that people vote differently in Lok Sabha and assembly elections. I promised I would throw more light on this.
So let’s put 2009 aside for a while and go to the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress party had received more votes compared to rivals BJP in as many as 92 assembly areas in 2004 Lok Sabha polls in Gujarat. 92 is one more than the majority mark. So after the 2004 results, the Congress party in Gujarat was jubilant and was expecting a victory in subsequent assembly elections in 2007. But in 2007 assembly elections, the party couldn’t even get odd 60 seats.
In the course of writting this series, I am studying lots of material on past elections in Gujarat with the aim to find some kind of common voting pattern.
One interesting pattern, discovered so far is about voting percentages. In the last three Lok Sabha elections, voting percentage in Gujarat was around 45%, while in last three assembly elections voting percentage was around 60%. This means around 15% more people go to cast their votes in assembly elections compared to Lok Sabha polls!
Assembly polls and voting percentage in Gujarat
1998 – 59.30%
2002 – 61.54%
2007 – 59.77%
Lok Sabha polls and voting percentage in Gujarat
1996 – 35.92%
1999 – 47.03%
2004 – 45.60%
2009 – 47.92%
(Note: In 1998, both assembly and Lok Sabha elections were held together, therefore both polls jointly attracted 59.30% voters. If Lok Sabha polls were held separately then there could have possibly been around 45% turnout just like any other Lok Sabha polls in Gujarat).
This pattern suggests that regularly 15% more voters go to vote in assembly elections. Why does it happen so?
Well in the Lok Sabha polls, there are 26 seats, while in the Assembly polls there are 182 seats. So in the Lok Sabha polls, the number of serious candidates is around 52 while in the Vidhansabha polls it would be anything around 365-400, and perhaps more. So there are more active players. This contributes to more voting.
If I ask you, when was the last time you needed to approach your Lok Sabha representative, you would probably say you never needed him/her. This is one more reason why the Lok Sabha polls would not interest most people.
One reason, that could be playing its role is weather. While the last few Gujarat assembly polls took place in December, the Lok Sabha polls arrived in terrible summer.
When it’s December, everything is pleasant – take campaign or polling day or say our activity level. But under the scorching sun of April, it’s completely opposite.
There could be tons of other factors contributing to more polling in assembly polls. Some of them are too obvious and I’m not listing them all.
So in 2004 Lok Sabha polls, Congress gets a lead in 92 seats, but with overall 45.60% voting in the state. In 2007 Congress falls to below 60, with overall polling in the state at 59.77%.
And 15% difference in voting makes a huge difference. Forget 15%, even 1.5% can make a significant difference in results.
In the 1999 Lok Sabha polls, Congress got a 45.44% vote share, while the BJP got 52.48% of the votes. Thus there was around 7% difference. BJP received 20 seats while Congress only 6.
In 2004 the BJP got 47% votes while the Congress 44%. So compared to earlier 7% gap, the difference this time is only 3% – just a four percent change. And see the results – while Congress won 12 seats, the BJP won 14. So just due to a 4% shift, the Congress won double the number of Lok Sabha seats compared to previous polls.
A vast difference in polling percentage is one reason why we should not predict Vidhansabha poll results on the basis of Lok Sabha polls outcome. Even then if you were to take the 2009 Lok Sabha polls as a barometer, the BJP won more votes in 105 constituencies. Now with an addition of 15% voters (which is expected looking at past trends) the BJP should comfortably get at least 120-125 seats(While coming to this conclusion, I consider other factors too).
Nevertheless we will take a look at the list of assembly segments where Congress performed well in 2009 Lok Sabha polls in next article. In future I will also talk about more interesting patterns discovered through thorough study of Gujarat’s political history.
Author can be reached at japanpathak [at] deshgujarat.com
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Very good analysis …. JAPAN, proud of you…..
I would like to request you that after election , YOU should publish winners name addresses and e-mails for the people tom contact them…for any questions….
I ask one person , do you know your MPs name and how to contact him?…. He said like you said I do not need him…. I told him to take some interest and find HOW HE VOTEs in PARLIAMENT…. HE IS REPRESENTING you…. Without people participation, democracy will not survive….and that is the reason this lady from foreign COUNTRY runs the nation….
AGAIN JAPAN, good work… OTHER papers are busy showing half naked ladies to fool people …
JAY HIND…
Nice article JP.
Just one correction,,,you mixed loksabha with vidhansabha in serious candidates counting…
This is called journalism. Great work.
JP, if you have time teach these corrupt print Gujju media too.
BJP will get 131 seats
JP, nice one.
there should be election of assembly and lok sabha on the same time all over india. it will not just save lot of money but also save time. also there is less freebies offer. as you can not offer laptop by center as well as state party.
As usual marvelous.
Keep it up
dear JP excellent work…
interesting article with some interesting observations.
Suggestion for inexpensive, faster, and secured Election: Assume there are two parties A (Anna) and B (Baba). Both the parties are to present their 50 manifestos to the voters in advance for their evaluation of the parties.
The manifestos will be in the form of an agreement with the voters, where the provision for Right to Recall should also be included. On the day of election, a copy this agreement will be counter signed by the polling officer for registering as a vote of the voter. Further nuances, if required, will be furnished on request.
Japan bhai ekdam Japaneese article chhe. Welldone! Gujarat has distinct character of voting pattern when it comes to LS or Assembly polls. This time around even if BJP under Modi wins 2/3 majority in assembly it will not mean that they will have cakewalk in LS polls in 2014. But if by chance BJP proposes Modi as PM candidate then LS results from Gujarat would be stunningly surprising. This year voting percentage will be close to 60% in assembly polls due to reasons you illustrated and also the elections are after a long gap.
Congress always bank on low percentage of voting! As more people turn up for voting, congress start loosing the battle.
Thanks JP,
This stands true for almost all states, People vote differently for Municipal Elections,By polls,Assembly elections and Lok Sabha polls. This Assembly elections will be cake walk for BJP even though BJP may loose some grounds on Saurashtra on Rain and patels factor, but will earn grounds on Tribal areas. I see BJP winning atleast 130+ seats, Keshu will not matter outside saurashtra
nice analysis
There is one big difference this time, that is emergence of third front. This will completely change voting equations, cannot be comparable to any of the previous elections in Gujarat.
Other factors like, anti-Namo mood is relatively high compared to previous years, congress selling big-big dreams to the voters etc will make chances for BJP bit difficult.
I see that most of the anti-NaMo votes will go to third front and it will come with surprising results nobody has imagined so far, leaving hung assembly as a final result. Congress has also some chances of attracting those anti-NaMo votes inspite of tainted image at centre, only thanks to their luring promises to the voters.
Appreciate your views Mr Naresh but difficult to agree with you on this issue. Your anti Namo observation appears bizzare, rather Mr Modi is much more acceptable now than 2007. Let me humbly tell you that Gujarati voter can not be lured by freebee Promises. It didn’t work that way in Gujarat like other states. If earlier Voting pattern has anything to suggest, third front never succeeded in Gujarat. Guajart, by and large is a two party state. To just remind you that Keshubhai factor was very much there in 2007 too. Several other factors are also cited by media as propaganda to make life defficult for Mr Modi. One of them is Nitish Kumar’s party is going to fight Gujarat electios. It’s very defficult for me to understand that why people of Gujarat should put Nitish ahead of Mr Modi. It’s weird imagination. In the end, Japan alwyas comes with solid information. Thanks.
Its true that acceptance level of Modi has increased compared to previous years but that is limited to only well-educated class who can see development at all levels, but very few of them are going to vote. Our lower/middle class is still in the mindset which can be lured by freebies. All state govt employees are against Modi because he is not implementing 6th pay commission. Also, people of Gujarat are now tired of talking of development of Gujarat because many of them have not personally felt it yet.
Third front this time is more stronger than earlier years because they are successfully exploiting “Patel” factor which can affect at least 1/3 constituencies.
We just try to judge everything on the basis of tainted image of congress after these scams and their exposed secularism after Assam violence, but ground realities are totally different. Local factors affect more than national issues in assembly elections and that is true for Gujarat also.
So, still I am getting frightened to imagine defeat of Modi this time, because it will send wrong signals to entire nation and then 2014 will be very tough for NDA. If congress comes back to power again after 2014, it will be the most dangerous govt, worse than present one because they will not have any fear oof anyone, not even voters.
Last para in your rather rigorous comment is explaining it all that why people would not vote for congress. All your perception looks rational but believe me, it’s not going to happen at least this time.
This is an interesting exchange, quite helpful. This is my first occassion to monitor the Gujarat election at close range. I also have spent a few days on the campaign trail as well, attending stump speeches of the BJP candidates in villages. One thing I noticed was there was a small to fair presence of Muslim people at the BJP rallies. I really do not have a good idea of caste demographics that mass media constantly harp on. So, this talk of Patel commninty in Saurashtra being a wild card baffles me. In the BJP rallies never once did I hear anybody say anything at all on caste related stuff. It was always about getting a good handle on local people’s local problem and how best to handle them and giving them a vision of modi ji for the next 5 years. i really vowed at how great the meetings were – almost like in a corporate conference room. eg, in one meeting with tribal people – i really don’t know why they are called tribal because I couldn’t tell them from regular city folks – one young lady approached the candidate that where she lived it was a little beyond where the road ended, and she wanted road extended to cover her home, which was kinda modest looking. we all were surprised that a young lady would dare stand up and speak so easily. i was happy that an mla is approachable in Gujarat. The BJP candidate explained to her the procedure to get it done, and then reassured her he too will do his bit by contacting the right dept, and then handed her his card. i was told on the side that it will surely get taken care of with the customary modi-speed. vow.
this incident tells me that the voters should care less as to the candidate’s caste, and instead concern himself with the problem solving.
I want to thank mr. Japan, and would be interested in knowing what caused his parents to give him that interesting nice name.
Presently there are only 2 category of voters in Gujarat 1) Pro-Modi & the 2) Against-Modi. With SP, BSP, JD(U) fielding candidates, its clear that all the votes that will be polled against Modi will get split among cong, Keshu, SP, BSP, & JD(U). So their presence is only going to help Modi gain more seats.
Very true in last paragraph.
Hey Japan,
You forgot most important point about Vidhansabha elections. People are electing state rep. That is perhaps moore important factor in greater participation of people in Vidhansabha election. What happens in Gandhinagar is lot more important to people in Gujarat than what happens is New Delhi. Vidhansabha election is geared towards more local issues than national issues.
Very Good article. I request you to study voter behaviour and voter perceptions, one article on this would help understand the realities..I also request you to study preparedness of parties..one article on this..please..
Nice analysis……i think voting percentage difference between cong and Bjp is 11%. And third front will widely demage Bjp votes so i think congress will got high voters percentage in next election. If they alliance with Ncp and SP in next poll.
even if we presume that the political enviernment is in faver of BJP and NDA alliance, what i feel is that the politics in Gujarath is not BJP led but Modi led politics.
Hence if congress forms the government in gujarath VS then it’ll be their Victry over Modi & vice versa