Cyclone Nilofar would weaken further, believes IMD, weather analysts


Ahmedabad, 28 October 2014

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) bulletin issued by the IMD at 0830 am today said that the very severe cyclonic storm “Nilofar” would weaken further and cross the north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast, around Naliya in Kutch district, by the forenoon of November 1.

A bulletin said that the cyclone had moved northnorthwestwards in the past six hours and lay centred at 0530 hours IST near latitude 15.70 N and longitude 61.80 E, about 1120 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat), 1160 km south-southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 840 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman).It would move north-northwestwards during next 18 hrs and then recurve northeastwards and cross north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast around Naliya by 01st November forenoon. However, as the system would come closer to Gujarat coast, it would weaken and cross the coast as a cyclonic storm.Under the influence of this system, rainfall will commence at most places along the coastal districts in Saurashtra and Kutch regions of Gujarat from October 31 night onwards. Squally winds with speed reaching 45-55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, would commence along and off the Gujarat coast from October 31 night and would become 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea conditions along and off Gujarat coast will be rough to very rough from October 31 night and would become high from the morning of November 1.

According to Indian Weatherman Nilofar is losing strength as the moisture feeder from South Indian Ocean for the system is cut off and dry cold wind from land is engulfing the system.

Weather expert Eric Holthaus also believes that Cyclone Nilofar will be a much weaker storm. He tweeted: Cyclone #Nilofar now a category 2 cyclone with 170kph winds. It is still bound for Pakistan/India border, though as much weaker storm.