Congress’s hollow argument on unemployment in Gujarat

By Japan K Pathak

Other day, I was listening to Congress spokesperson on Gujarati news channel debate. He was making a point that unemployment in Gujarat was higher than national average. He was quoting CMIE data.

CMIE data

Now first, let’s be clear about what is CMIE. It is a private business information company headquartered at Mumbai. (https://www.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=wapps&tabno=7030&page=about_us). CMIE doesn’t represent gospel truth but provides indicative survey results.

Let’s know more about their unemployment data for which CMIE has collaborated with Bombay Stock Exchange(BSE).

It is moving data based on the 30-day average. So if you look at unemployment data of CMIE, it changes every month.

As per CMIE sample survey, the unemployment rate in Gujarat was 1.4% in August 2016, 1.3% in October 2016, same 1.3% in February 2017, 1.9% in May 2017, 2.8% in August 2017 and as high as 6.8% in October 2017.

So the figure in CMIE unemployment data keeps fluctuating on month-to-month basis. ( https://unemploymentinindia.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=wsttimeseries&index_code=050050000000&dtype=total ) Even if we put full trust in CMIE data, the Congress argument against Gujarat based on this data would be effective only if Gujarat had alarming level(above 10%) of unemployment percentage throughout the year on sustained basis. A range of 1.3% to 6.8% in October 2016 to October 2017 period is rational viewing at fluctuating national and other states’ figures.

Congress argument is that 6.8% unemployment rate in Gujarat as per CMIE data is above 5.4% unemployment rate nationally. ( https://www.inc.in/en/in-focus/no-jobs-in-gujarat-model ). But again, this assumption is based on monthly data. In 2017, Gujarat had below national level unemployment rate in CMIE data in the months of January, February, March, April, May, June and August. ( https://unemploymentinindia.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=wsttimeseries&index_code=050050000000&dtype=total )

If we choose to believe in Congress argument and CMIE data, then it must be noted that Congress ruled Himachal Pradesh has unemployment rate of 8.1% in October, well above 6.8% in Gujarat and 5.7% nationally. Or take Congress-ruled Punjab where in October, the unemployment rate was 7.5% as per CMIE survey. Congress in its argument note deliberately skips these two states.

AICTE data

The other argument related to unemployment in Gujarat by Congress is based on some AICTE survey of past years.

Congress argues, ‘according to the All India Council for Technical Education (AICTE), more than 80% of graduate engineers in Gujarat do not get jobs.’ ( https://www.inc.in/en/in-focus/no-jobs-in-gujarat-model ) Now this is completely a misrepresentation of facts.

The AICTE data (year 2013, 2014, 2015 in this case) only shows campus placements figure. Generally, many students choose to opt for further study or get placed later or many of them find job on their own. These figures are not recorded in AICTE data. “Employment and placement are completely different aspects,” argues Rajul Gajjar, then director of Gujarat Technological University in this connection. ( http://ahmedabadmirror.indiatimes.com/ahmedabad/cover-story/more-than-80-engineers-are-without-jobs/articleshow/57880536.cms)

Gujarat govt data

Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani recently in a press conference shared official number of those registered in State’s employment exchanges which was 5,75,000 in September this year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbPn0cEpt14

In recent TV debate, a person from audience asked BJP leader, why hundreds and sometime thousands of people apply for few number of government jobs many times. Doesn’t that clearly reflect the picture of huge unemployment scenario? The BJP person in reply said, it’s not necessary that all those who apply for government jobs are unemployed. May be they are employed elsewhere but they prefer to apply for government job for better prospects.

Central government data

Private company’s data and political argument apart, the official figures of Government of India clearly put Gujarat on top when it comes to jobs.

The Labour Bureau in the Union Ministry of Labur and Employment is an apex organization for providing data base at the national level for policy formulation, evaluation and research. It is the epicenter of all activities involving planning, collection and dissemination of data on various facets of Labour which forms a sound basis for decision making in the Government, industry and by various other user organizations.

Do access its report on employment and unemployment survey 2011-12 here. http://labourbureau.nic.in/rep_1.pdf That was Congress-led UPA era in Centre. According to the report(2011-12), India’s jobless rate stood at 3.8% during the last fiscal. Daman-Diu and Gujarat had unemployment rates of 0.6% and 1% respectively which was lowest across all states and union territories.

https://deshgujarat.com/2012/07/10/gujarat-has-least-unemployment-rate-among-all-states-says-latest-report-released-by-government-of-india/

In fact 2015 edition of this survey reflects the same. http://labourbureaunew.gov.in/UserContent/EUS_5th_1.pdf

Central govt approach

In another public debate programme organized by Etv Gujarati – TV18 in Ahmedabad recently, BJP president Amit Shah in his reply to a question on unemployment scenario said: ‘The government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given assistance for self-employment to around 9 crore youths under Mudra scheme. Tribal and dalits are given employment under Stand Up India scheme. We are encouraging youths to start own business through Startup India. We are trying to enhance skills among youths under Skill India programme so that they can get employment. When BJP formed government under Talji, India’s growth rate was 4.4% which BJP government scaled upto 8.8%. After Congress ruled for ten years under economist prime minister the growth rate was 4.4%. Prime Minister Narendra Modi lifted it and made India the fastest progressing country.’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCZWIJluBuo (19.34 mark)

In another debate, Amit Shah said, in this nation with over one billion population, everyone can not get job. It’s impossible. Self employment would need boost.

Shah also said: While Rahul is raising the question of unemployment here, let me ask what is his model for jobs? Thousands of people from his constituency from where his father and mother too were elected are unemployed and many of them are in Gujarat to earn bread and butter. Such people who are from Amethi and settled in Gujarat may organize rally in Gujarat to expose Rahul who has done nothing in his constituency area.

The ground implementation and benefits of Mudra programme is least covered by media, but when I spoke to ex-sarpanch of Punsri village in North Gujarat, he told me there were 90 beneficiaries of this scheme only in his village.

Rahul gives multiple figures

Recently Rahul Gandhi was mocked for faking unemployment figures in Gujarat in his campaign speeches. In morning rally at Porbandar, Rahul said total number of unemployed youths in Gujarat is 50 lakh. In the evening while speaking at Nikol in Ahmedabad he said there were 30 lakh unemployed youths in Gujarat. So in a matter of few hours he gave jobs to 20 lakh people!

This happened with Rahul because he is roaming across Gujarat with haphazard and fictitious figures, God knows supplied by whom!

DeshGujarat