Japan Pathak:Why Gujarat by-election was a low key affair?

Voting for the by-election of seven assembly seats in Gujarat is over.This by-election remained a low-key affair without much overtone. Following are the reasons behind this.

-This was not a decisive election. Elections that don’t form or break government generally don’t create much excitement.

-This was predominantly a rural election, that remained completely unnoticed in urban Gujarat. All seven seats fall in rural areas, none seat ‘fashionable’ to win or loose.

-The elections were held on seats where Congress is traditionally a dominant player. Six out of seven seats were occupied by Congress in previous election. Most of the seats are occupied by Congress for past many years. Such visibly ‘one-sided’ outlook of the election made it a boring affair.

-Congress party’s ‘Bap Beta’ policy made this election further boring. Congress fielded sons and daughter of previously elected MLAs on as many as three out of seven seats. The election was looking like a family affair on each of these three seats.

-In rural areas, elections are generally fought on bases of cast/community/group arithmetic and local issues. Such politics starts from ticket allotting season itself at doorstep of party offices. Ideology does not play its role in such elections, as powerfully as it should. Such too much localize election prevented rest of the state to take interest in.

-Chief Minister Narendra Modi did not visit any of the election areas. He didn’t address even a single election rally(learned from the Lok Sabha elections 2009? Anti Modis can say him ‘Ran-Chhod’). Modi changed his strategy this time and invited bus-loads of workers from each election area to Gandhinagar to address them. Modi didn’t deliver even a single statement or press release and remained completely silent during the whole election. ‘Mute button Modi’ played leading role in making this election the most silent, undiscussed and unnoticed one.

…But something was interesting too

Though silent, boring and low-key, this election had something interesting too, but under the skin.

-Shankarsinh Vaghela was sidelined by the party in the election, or we can say Vaghela himself limited himself to a corner due to some undisclosed reasons. ‘Bapu’ as he is known in his circle was not visible during the campaign. In one of the rallies at Dehgam, where Vaghela could influence considerable part of voters, it was announced repeatedly on mike that ‘Bapu would reach here soon to address us’, but Bapu didn’t arrived.

-Congress candidate of north Gujarat’s Danta seat – Noor Mohammad Umatiya(thanks to Ahmed Patel?), a Muslim with Islamic beard and topi, generated some interest in media. Danta is surely a Congress strong-hold, but Vasant Bhatol, a candidate on BJP side was surely not a completely avoidable challenge. BJP campaign was banking on the fact that according to the provision of the Ambaji Temple Trust, the MLA of Danta, where the temple is located, becomes the ex-officio member of the Trust. If Noorbhai is elected, there would be a Muslim in holy pilgrimage trust as a member. Congress denied existence of such provision in trust rules.

-BJP’s game in Jasdan also generated some interest. In this Congress strong-hold, BJP gave ticket to Congress man Bharatbhai(Patel). Bhupat Dabhi, a local BJP Koli leader ‘revolted’ against the party and fought the election independently on Koli card. BJP’s Koli community leader and minister – Purushottam Solanki also campaigned for Dabhi as part of the strategy to snatch Koli votes from Congress party’s Koli candidate, a daughter of ex-MLA and sitting MP Kuvarjibhai Bavaliya. BJP did its best to win this ‘impossible’ seat on the bases of Patel votes through Patel candidate + creating split in Koli votes through strong independent Koli candidate against weak Congress Koli candidate.

Concluding..

The by-election 2009 of seven assembly seats in Gujarat was an election in which the Congress tried the best to retain its number of seats(6), and BJP tried its best to get one or two more seats. Section of media has published reports that this election is ‘Acid Test for Modi’ or ‘Prestige issue for Modi’ etc. I am completely disagree to this. The reasons are already narrated well in the article. This election would be decisive for state BJP President Purushottam Rupala who was on the forefront of the campaign and strategy. Rupala is scheduled to leave the party president post in December this year. Once hyper and growing, Rupala is already down after party did not perform so well in Lok Sabha elections early this year. Any gain of seat will give him somewhat a good exit. On the other hand, any gain to Congress will make Shaktisinh Gohil and Siddharth Patel further more powerful leaders in the state, sidelining Vaghela further. Results are to be declared on 14th(Monday). Keep fingers crossed.