Exit polls to influence political discussions, stock market till 16th

Ahmedabad, 12 May, 2014

Soon after the end of final phase of polling on Monday evening, all major news channels will start showing exit poll results. If exit polls predict formation of stable government led by Narendra Modi with clear majority, stock markets are likely to witness boom. If there are signs of hung parliament, such exit poll results will adversely impact the markets.

It is sure that exit poll results will be in center of discussions across the nation from Monday evening onwards. On Tuesday, all major newspapers will take note of exit poll results prominently on front page.

But then exit polls are just exit polls. They are conducted based on samples of voters. The real date of results is 16th. Till then, speculations based on exit poll results will dominate the political discussions.

Exit polls and real results in 2004 and 2009

In 2004 parliamentary polls the exit-poll projected 240-250 seats for NDA. The actual results gave 187 seats to NDA. Projection was Congress and its pre-poll allies was 170 to 205 seats. However they got 216 seats.

In 2009 polls CNN-IBN gave UPA 185-205 seats while the BJP-led NDA was projected to secure 165 to 185 seats. The Third Front has been given 110 to 130 seats and the Fourth Front between 25 and 35 seats. ‘Others’ are likely to get 20 to 30 seats.

According to the exit polls projection of the NDTV channel, UPA was projected to emerge as the largest alliance in the Lok Sabha polls with 216 seats. The NDA was expected to get 177 seats.

Headlines Today channel gave Congress and its allies 191 seats against 180 to BJP and its allies. The Left parties, which played a crucial role in the outgoing Lok Sabha with 60 seats, had been projected to get 38 while ‘Others’ including the BSP were to get 134 in a House of 543.

In its projections, India TV channel said UPA would get between 195 seats and it could go up to 227 if 32 seats of RJD, LJP and SP added. The channel had given NDA 189 and the Third Front 113. ‘Others’ were projected to get 14 seats.

This was about exit polls. But what was the actual result?

In 2009 Congress won 206 seats and its allies 55 in the 542 results officially declared.Trinamool Congress had emerged as the largest ally with 19 seats followed by Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam with 18, Nationalist Congress Party with nine, National Conference-three, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and Muslim League two each and one each from Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi and Kerala Congress (Mani).The United Progress Alliance with a total strength of 261 and needed 11 more to touch the magic figure of 272 for a majority.The Bharatiya Janata Party won 116 seats and its National Democratic Alliance allies 43. The NDA had a total tally of 159.

The Third Front ended with 78 seats. The Bahujan Samaj Party emerged as the largest party with 21 seats followed by Communist Party of India-Marxist with 16 seats, Biju Janata Dal-14, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-9, Telugu Desam Party-6, Communist Party of India-4, Janata Dal-Secular-3, Revolutionary Socialist Party-2, Forward Bloc-2, and Marumalarachi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam-1.The Fourth Front comprising Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Lok Janshakti Party could manage only 26 seats. The SP led by Mulayam Singh Yadav got the largest chunk with 22 while Lalu Prasad’s RJD won four with Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP of drawing a blank.

Of the remaining 17 seats, nine were won by Independents followed by one each by 8 parties–All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha, Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi, Sikkim Democratic Front, Nagaland Peoples’ Front, Swabhimani Paksha, Bodoland Peoples’ Front and Assam United Democratic Front.