The latest survey of seats in Maharashtra indicates BJP will form the government

Editor’s note, Ahmedabad, 9 October 2014

Presented in the picture above are figures of the India Today group Cicero opinion poll on Maharashtra battle. Half mark in Maharashtra assembly is 145. In last one decade, in most of the states, people have elected a government with clear majority. In a big state like Uttar Pradesh, there were several major parties contesting to form the government, but even in four or five party contest, people elected state governments with clear majority twice and also gave one party a clean sweep in Lok Sabha elections. Many other major states including Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat etc also elected a stable government with clear majority to leading party.

What has been observed in past few elections is that when people find that so-and-so party is leading and likely to emerge as largest party after the election, they give further incremental push to that party.Even nationally, the people this time elected a single party government with clear majority.

With this latest survey and also the other two surveys ( C-voter and Taleem) it is becoming increasingly clear that BJP will emerge as the single largest party with seats in range of 93(Taleem) to 144(India Today). As campaigning comes to its end, and more people feel that BJP is going to emerge as single largest party, more people may choose to elect the BJP government with clear majority for stability and clarity of mandate.

There was a time when the assembly polls in Maharashtra were centered around Maratha leader Sharad Pawar. Then there was a time when Balasaheb Thackeray was in the center of Maharashtra Politics(early 1990s). It is perhaps for the first time after Indira Gandhi, that a leader from outside the state is in the center of Maharashtra electoral battle. The election in Maharashtra is already centered around the BJP and its leader Narendra Modi. All parties choose to attack Shri Modi in public meetings. This has always given benefit to Mr. Modi even in the past, as his name is always in discussion even when opposition party is holding rally.

Shri Modi’s rallies in Maharshtra are very successful numerically and chemistry wise. His each rally gives more confidence and energy to local candidates. His each rally push fence seaters to his side. His each rally creates panic among opponents and also demoralize them invisibly.

In a significant development, RSS has decided to be active during the elections. RSS has said that like the Lok Sabha elections, it will go to field to ensure 100% voting. This is a major booster for BJP.

While Shri Modi is not uttering a word against Shiv Sena during campaign, Shiv Sena is attacking BJP because it feels split of anti-establishment/Hindu/Mumbai/Urban/Saffron/Right vote due to BJP, and therefore it treats BJP as its main rival in major areas of Maharashtra. However Shiv Sena has not left NDA. Its minister is still there in the Narendra Modi government in centre. It has continued alliance with BJP in Mumbai Municipal Corporation, district panchayats and at other places. Barring few issues like who would be the Chief Minister, whou would contest which seat, whether Vidarbha should be carved out as a separate state etc, Shiv Sena and BJP are natural allies and they may form post-poll alliance after the elections if BJP fails to get majority.

It should be mentioned that unlike past the presence Governor in Maharashtra is not former Congress man.He would invite BJP to form the government if BJP is leading party. If BJP is not in majority, but gap of seats between BJP and Shiv Sena is too big, Shiv Sena will extend support to BJP government from inside. Even Raj Thackeray will be ready to extend support from inside. Provided that BJP doesn’t touch Vidarbha issue for five years. If BJP emerges as single largest party but gap of seats between BJP and Shiv Sena is nominal, Uddhav Thackeray will request BJP to let Shiv Sena rule the state. This situation is however unlikely to happen. It should be remembered that BJP wants saffron government at any cost.

While every other party’s Chief Ministerial candidate is almost clear, the BJP has not declared its Chief Ministerial candidate because Marathas have major role to play in Maharshtra politics, and BJP has no Maratha leader when it comes to a list of its probable Chief Ministerial candidates. BJP has therefore not declared its CM candidate, and contesting the election in Narendra Modi’s name(Chhatrapati ka ashirwad, chalo chale Modi ke sath). If Gopinath Munde was there, BJP could easily declare his name as CM candidate and get clear majority easily.

Barring the fear of split in anti-establishment vote, BJP has nothing to lose in this poll. BJP was a junior partner in NDA, but now it is likely to become the single largest party, and may even get clear majority. BJP will almost double the number of seats or may go even further up. This will help it to elect more Rajya Sabha MPs in future. This may also help the party in President’s election in future. These two are ultimate targets of party president Amit Shah. It should be mentioned that NDA is in minority in Rajya Sabha, and therefore to pass any bill, BJP has to dial other parties to get their support. Going alone and ensure victory on more seats in Maharshtra and Haryana will benefit BJP immensely in long term . Getting more seats than Shiv Sena in Maharashtra will put end to some nuisance created by Shiv Sena through frequent remarks in Samna and other platforms. Even in Haryana, the BJP was considered novice, and therefore a decision to go alone and getting substantial number of seats this time will prove beneficial.

The results are going to be out on 19th of this month. Just 10 days more!