Latest in Maharashtra tangle (updated)

Mumbai, 21 October 2014

Shiv Sena leaders Subhash Desai and Anil Desai reached Delhi on Tuesday evening to convey a message of Uddhav Thackeray to Maharashtra BJP incharge JP Nadda and observer Rajnath Singh.

The talks between the leaders of the former Maharashtra alliance partners are likely to be followed by a meeting between Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray and BJP president Amit Shah on Friday or Saturday.

Senior Sena leader Sanjay Raut confirmed that the duo have left for Delhi, adding: “Let’s see how things work out. After that, we will take a call on Uddhavji going to Delhi.” “The Sena has no agenda other than keeping Maharashtra united and prosperous, and if our condition is met, then we have no qualms about giving unequivocal support to BJP,” said another Sena leader who did not want to be named.

“The Sena seems to have realized that if they don’t cooperate with the BJP, the BJP will walk out of alliances in the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai, Thane, Aurangabad and other municipal bodies and then the Sena will be completely marginalized in the state’s politics,” said Prakash Akolkar, political editor of the Marathi newspaper Sakal.

In another development, party’s Maharashtra incharge Om Mathur while speaking to news agency ANI today said that independents have extended their support to BJP and party is now short of just five MLAs to touch half mark in assembly.

He said, ” See, so far as preference is concerned, we will be happy to be joined by someone who has been with us for last many years. But formulas they have given to us are just being discussed by media, reality is that there has been no talk happened so far either with our national team or me in personal. It is good that they(Shiv Sena) come to us and discuss the things. Neither he(Uddhav) was in 1995, nor me. A wise politician will be someone who would decide based on realities in present time(and not something that was in 1995).”

“Most of independents have come with us. We are short of just 4-5 seats from majority. There is possibility of minority government, but I would say it again that if our old ally come with us, we will be happy,” he said in reply to a question over possibility of formation of minority government.

In his talk to India TV, Mathur said that BJP is above 136-137 at present. He said independents are coming to BJP to ensure stable government.

In his talk to another TV channel/agency, Mathur said that it is people who decide who is elder brother and who is junior brother. The results this time show that BJP is elder brother. BJP has emerged as single largest party. Others should come forward to ensure stability.

It is believed that Shiv Sena wants 1995 formula and seeking the post of Deputy Chief Minister, Home Minister, PWD Minister and Irrigation Minister. All of these posts are corruption-friendly or in common words ‘money making machine’. In 1995 when BJP and Shiv Sena jointly formed government, Shiv Sena was given the post of Chief Minister while BJP had been given important ministries. It is believed that Shiv Sena now wants half the number of ministries on same model. However BJP argues that in 1995, the gap between number of seats won by Shiv Sena and BJP was not too big. It was just 10 seats gap. This time, the gap is too big. While BJP is enjoying support above 136-137 at present, Shiv Sena is at 63. BJP has also conveyed that cabinet will be small and party will not be able to accommodate demands made by partners in terms of number of ministers.

Speaking to NDTV, senior leader and union minister Arun Jaitley said that BJP’s alliance with Shiv Sena in Mumbai is alive.Similarly, Shiv Sena’s minister is also there in Modi cabinet. Then congratulatory message has been communicated by Shiv Sena chief recently to Prime Minister.All this is indicative. Jaitley was of opinion that BJP-Shiv Sena may talk soon and form government jointly. Jaitley described NCP’s support as ‘gracious’ and hinted that it could be last option. He didn’t deny possibility of minority government, but preferred majority government for the sake of stability.

In another development, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is is likely to visit Mumbai on 25th of October to inaugurate Reliance run hospital. There’s no clarity on whether Uddhav Thackeray and other Maharashtra politicians including NCP leaders too are attending this function as guests or not. In any case, any decision on Maharashtra could arrive after 25th, as even headquarters of Maharashtra BJP has been declared closed till 26th due to Diwali.

In another development senior BJP MLA Sudhir Mungantiwar today said that Nitin Gadkari should become Chief Minister and his denial to leave Delhi and come to Maharashtra is surprising.

Trust vote only once in six months

As per Rule 198 of the Rules of Procedure and Conduct of Business in the Lok Sabha, which applies also to states, a government which clears the numbers test can be made to take another one only after a gap of six months.

BJP strategists feel this window will be big enough for it to find the missing numbers.

The presence of NDA appointee C Vidyasagar Rao in Raj Bhavan can only be a help, feel BJP tacticians.

As per convention, when Governor invites BJP—if he does so —he will give the party a timeframe to prove its majority on the floor of the House. Once the majority is proved (maybe with NCP’s help), there is no question of anyone moving a no-confidence motion for the next six months.