Gandhinagar: With the results of the General Elections of Lok Sabha 2024 still around 10 days away, discussions and curiosity are running high regarding which party will emerge victorious and which candidates will face losses on result day, June 4th. After winning all 26 seats in the state in the last two elections, the BJP is aiming for a hat-trick. However, with many factors changing in every poll, only data can help to understand the dynamics of the seats and predict the outcome.

In this article, we have focused on 12 out of the 26 Lok Sabha seats of Gujarat where a tough fight has been expected by hopeful Congress party during the polls.

We conclude that the significant jump in favor of BJP in Lok Sabha elections under Modi as PM candidate, compared to previous assembly election, make BJP victorious on all Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat.

– Two methods have been used here to derive the estimated vote share of the ruling party and then see whether it is in a comfortable position or not.

– The data which we have on our hand includes voting percentage and total votes polled in 2024 elections but as the data about party vote share only emerges after the results.

– In the first method, we derive the estimated votes received by the BJP by taking the vote share of the 2022 assembly election as a base. Now as we have estimated votes for BJP and total votes polled we can easily derive the estimated vote share of BJP.

– In the second method, we have considered the difference between the Lok Sabha poll percentage and Vidhan Sabha poll percentage to estimate the vote share of BJP.

– For this, we find out the difference between the 2012 assembly polls and the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, then we repeat the process for the 2017 assembly polls and the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Now add the jump that took place in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls in relation to assembly polls, dividing it by 2 we will get the average jump. After that, by adding the average jump in BJP vote share of the 2022 Assembly election, we get the estimated vote share of BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha Polls.

Two methods have been utilized to estimate the vote share of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party on seats namely Banaskantha, Sabarkantha, Rajkot, Patan, Anand, Jamnagar, Bharuch, Dahod, Junagadh, Bardoli, Surendranagar, and Valsad.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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