Ahmedabad: Over 25 lakh more voters cast votes in Gujarat assembly general elections this year compared to previous election in 2012.

The total number of voters who have cast votes this year was 2.97 crore. It was 2.71 crore last time.

However, percentage wise polling was lower this year compared to past election.

There are total 4.35 crore voters eligible to vote at present. If percentage of voting this year was equal to previous election, 3.10 crore voters would have cast votes.

If BJP wants to achieve vote share matching to 2012 again in 2017, it would need 1.42 crore votes.

It must be noted that before selection of candidates, BJP national president Amit Shah had toured across Gujarat and addressed the cadres and party office bearers. Shah had given them target of 1.40 crore votes statewide.

In 2012, BJP had won 1.31 crore votes (47.85%) while Congress had got 1.06 crore votes(38.93%). Independents had got 15.97 lakh votes(5.83%), Keshubhai Patel led GPP 9.94 lakh votes(5.83%), BSP 3.42 lakh(1.25%), NCP 2.59 lakh(0.95%), JDU 1.83 lakh(0.67%), SP 71000 votes(0.26%), LJP 56,000 votes(0.20%). All figures given here are round figures.

If BJP wants to achieve the target of 150 seats as proclaimed by Shah number of time during campaign, it may need very high vote share. In 1985, then Congress Chief Minister Madhavsinh Solanki had made his party winning 149 seats in Gujarat assembly polls, the highest number of seats ever achieved. Congress had got 55% vote share in that election. In 1990, the BJP-JD alliance had won 56% votes but number with 137 seats.

Percentage to seat calculation is complex exercise. Victory margin and other candidates play role in it. Total number of candidates in Gujarat elections this year is as high as 1828 which indicates the presence of lot of other players. The number of total candidates was higher than present election only in 1990(1889 candidates) and 1995(2454 candidates) elections in Gujarat.

DeshGujarat