Gandhinagar

Elections for the posts of president and vice president are going to be held today in 31 district panchayats of Gujarat.

Congress is likely to rule 21 of them with clear majority. They are Mahisagar, Ahmedabad, Amreli, Bhavnagar, Gandhinagar, Junagadh, Mahesana, Rajkot, Sabarkantha, Tapi, Surendranagar, Vadodara, Patan, Anand, Dahod, Navsari, Jamnagar, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Chhota Udepur, Arvalli, Morbi and Botad.

Of them Ahmedabad, Dahod and Devbhoomi Dwarka district panchayats are to be watched out as Congress has got paper thin majority. Even if 1 or 2 Congress members switch over to BJP, Congress will not be able to elect its president and vice president in these three district panchayats.

There are two district panchayats namely Narmada and Bharuch with hung verdict. Chhotubhai Vasava a local strongman of Zagadia/Valiya belt in Bharuch district who is also MLA and heads Janata Dal(United) party’s Gujarat unit is most likely to instruct party’s elected members to support Congress party in these two district panchayats. This move will make it possible for Congress to elect its presidents in these two district, while posts of vice presidents will stay with Janata Dal(United). Vasava has in the past supported BJP in Narmada and Bharuch district panchayats but this time Delhi based senior Congress leader Ahmed Patel directly spoke to Delhi based Janata Dal(United) national president Sharad Yadav and requested him to instruct Vasava to extend support to Congress. Vasava was later called to Delhi where he met Sharad Yadav and Ahmed Patel.

BJP is set to rule 6 district panchayat bodies with clear majority. They are Kutch, Panchmahal, Surat, Porbandar and Navsari.

There are two district panchayats namely Dang and Gir Somnath where both BJP and Congress have got equal members. While in Gir Somnath, 2 independent members who are BJP rebels are going to be decisive, in Dang there are equal number of elected members of BJP and Congress, and there’s no third player. Both BJP and Congress had pushed their elected candidates underground to prevent them from switching over to other side.

District Panchayats to be watched out for churning/switch overs:

Gir Somnath, Dang, Ahmedabad, Dahod and Devbhoomi Dwarka district panchayats.

At this time, it seems the Congress party can get power in atleast 21 district panchayats and scale it up to 25 while BJP can get power in atleast 6 district panchayats and scale it up to 11. In any case, whatever is the verdict today, in favor of whichever party, the districts with paper thin majority, hung verdict or equal number of victorious candidate in both parties will see lot of churning in next five years, time to time. Districts that have seen handsome majority in favor of one party are however likely to see political stability for full term.

– DeshGujarat