By Japan K Pathak, Ahmedabad, 21 March, 2012

As always, DeshGujarat predicted the result of the Mansa by-poll (with the figure of margin) a day before the counting. The prediction has been proved correct with the figure of margin(it’s 8,188 and we predicted 8-10,000).

Though the exact picture of what went wrong with the BJP in Mansa will be clear only after studying the detailed figures, some of the possible reasons for the BJP’s defeat that can be surmised at present are as follows:

1.Mansa is 100% rural constituency located in Gandhinagar district where Congress is ruling party in district panchayat(BJP is ruling 22 district panchayats, Congress 2 including Tapi and Gandhinagar). Congress also rules Gandhinagar Municipal Corporation(BJP rules six Municipal corporations while Congress two including Gandhinagar and Junagadh). Gandhinagar district has history of backing the Congress. However Mansa seat in particular was with BJP since 1995, but with narrow margin, and due to split in vote by third candidate). Congress party’s rule in the district and in the nearest major city was influential.

2.Years back the villages of Gandhinagar district were declared ‘dark zone’. New agricultural power connections were denied to these villages since 2003, due to over exploitation of underground water level. Though the state govt lifted dark zone status just before the election, the villagers didn’t forget how they suffered all along these years due to dark zone. The issue continued to touch the farmers due to Congress party’s efforts. Even after lifting the dark zone, power connections are not given immediately, so the effect of dark zone dissatisfaction continued.

3.DD Patel was a newer candidate, first time fighting the poll. Congress party successfully created an image that he was too rich and not easily accessible and therefore not ‘one-of-us’ person. DD riding in SUVs couldn’t connect with the tractor people.

4.While BJP fielded Patel candidate, Congress fielded Thakor candidate. Third major force was Chaudhary voters. It seems the BJP couldn’t lure Thakors even slightly, and Chaudhary voters majorly.

5. But the main factor that played a role in BJP defeat was division in Patel votes.

6. There are two types of Patels here. One are called Pavli Patels, while other are called Rupiyo Patels. Late BJP MLA Mangaldas Patel was Pavli Patel. Present BJP candidate DD Patel is relative of late Mangaldas and also a Pavli Patel. Sources on the ground say that Rupiyo Patels who are more in number compare to Pavli Patels didn’t vote for BJP candidate. This is the major reason of BJP’s defeat.

The story goes back to year 2010, when in Ridrol village of Mansa taluka, Patels and Thakors clashed during Mahakali mata’s 108 kundi Yagna over minor issue of prashad distribution. Three houses and one shop were burnt to ashes in this clash. More than 15 persons were injured. One 32-year-old Balaji Pujnaji Thakor died in hospital after attacked by couple of persons from Rupiyo Patel community. However Thakors filed complaint against 41 persons under the offense of rioting with murder. All of them were from Rupiyo Patel community. Soon after the clash, to avoid arrest, most of the Rupiyo Patel deserted the village, leaving their crops and assets behind. Two SRP companies were deployed to guard the properties and crops of Rupiyo Patels. Later police had arrested 24 persons belonging to Rupiyo Patel community. Ranchhod Patel, one of them was very influential.

A group of Rupiyo Patels went to then sitting BJP MLA Mangaldas Patel for help. They said that while two persons were responsible for killing a Thakor community man, why many more should face the murder case? When Rupiyo Patels asked for help, then BJP MLA Mangaldas Patel was not ready to deliver. Instead it is alleged that Mangaldas and his relative and present BJP candidate DD Patel both from Pavli Patel community, ensured that Rupiyo Patels including Ranchhodbhai are arrested and complaint stay against them.

A 25,000 strong Rupiyo Patels had taken a decision at that time that they would never vote for Mangaldas,and would ensure his defeat.

After Mangaldas’s death, when BJP selected his relative DD Patel as candidate, the Rupiyo Patel community found a chance to take revenge. Influential Ranchhod Patel was recently out on bail given by the Supreme Court.

While Congress party cornered local Thakor votes through experienced Thakor candidate, the party at the same time also successfully managed division in Patel votes and made a clear plot of DD Patel’s defeat. Congress had its committed votes here, but the BJP had more committed voters. However division in Rupiyo and Pavli Patels garnered more committed voters to Congress.

7. Though there are divisions in Gandhinagar district unit ( Vaghela group, CJ Chavda group etc) of Congress party, this time all factions worked together unitedly under the guidance of master strategist Ahmed Patel and his confidant man in Gujarat Shri Arjun Modhwadia.

8. BJP largely canvass with mega picture of the state, the country, the governance and the ideology, while Congress worked on micro issues, relations(very important and arrogant BJP leaders can’t do that), immediate benefits and tricks.

Update

BJP spokesperson Vijay Rupani added that late Mangaldasbhai Patel was ill for last three years and therefore not active. This made the constituency weak for the party. I agree with Mr. Rupani that this too contributed partly to local anti-incumbency.

More update

The villages like Charada, Padusama, Gozaria, Ridrol, Lodra were considered as fort of the BJP. Charada town is native place of former MLA Vipul Chaudhary and BJP President Shakuntalaben Patel. However BJP couldn’t ensure margin over Congress candidate in this belt.

Congress received 11.80% more votes in Mansa compare to last election. In 2007 election, Babusinh Thakor of Congress secured 39.74% vote share, while in this election he has increased his vote share figure to 51.54%. BJP candidate late Shri Mangaldas Patel secured 43% vote share, while his relative Dashrath Patel has received 45.03% votes in this election. BJP could get only 120 vote surplus margin in Mansa city. BJP leader ND Chaudhary failed to ensure margin in his area of Itadara belt.On the contrary Congress continued to garner healthy margin in its strong belt like Lakroda, Gunma, Varsoda, Parsa, Khata Amba, Kharna, Solaiya etc. It’s a big thumbs down for Chaudhary leaders of the BJP.

Get complete history of Mansa constituency and related details here

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