Ahmedabad, 24 January 2014

As per the two recent opinion polls, the BJP led by prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is on course to emerge the biggest in Lok Sabha general elections due by May.

According to a poll on Thursday by pollsters CVoter and the India Today media group, the BJP is set to win 188 seats in the 543-seat parliament, over twice the predicted tally of the Congress.

The Congress, whose campaign is being helmed by Rahul Gandhi, is grappling with public anger over a string of corruption scandals and economic growth hitting a decade-low.

BJP is forecast to win 41-49 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, according to a survey by pollsters CSDS and CNN-IBN news channel. Anther survey, conducted by Nielsen for ABP News channel, put the party’s share at 32 in UP.

BJP also predicted to emerge as the largest group in Bihar, with 16-24 of the state’s 40 seats, and to win well over half of the 48 seats in Maharashtra along with its long-term ally, the Shiv Sena.

CVoter surveyed almost 21,800 respondents across 28 states, with a three per cent margin of error at the national level. The CSDS poll surveyed just under 18,600 voters in 18 states, with a margin of error that varies from state to state. It will issue a national projection on Friday.

Given the diverse and fragmented electorate, neither the BJP nor any other party is expected to win the 272 seats needed for an outright majority. The biggest party will seek to form a coalition with regional parties.

C-Voter poll chart-1
Chart-2