Ahmedabad, 26 October 2014

There has been the deep depression formed in the Arabian Sea, and after Hudhud, yet another cyclone is likely to lash parts of India. This time it could hit the Kutch region of Gujarat. This is after a long time, that significant cyclonic activity is possible in the Arabian Sea; people in Bhuj coast of Gujarat need to follow weather updates. Deep depression is likely to be declared a cyclonic storm by Monday, with the tag ‘Nilofar,’ a name contributed by Pakistan.

IMD Hyderabad predicts impact on Kutch

Director, IMD Hyderabad, K. Sitaram told southern Indian newspaper Deccan Chronicle, “Presently, the deep depression in Arabian Sea is 1,400 km from Mumbai coastline and is moving in a west-north-west direction. The intensity of the cyclone can be gauged only by tomorrow when it comes further near the coastline.”

The IMD official added that, if the cyclone turns a little north, it is likely to hit the coastline of Kutch district directly and other western coastal areas of Gujarat. The cyclone would also hit the coastline of Pakistan. If the cyclone inclines a little over west then it would hit the Oman state of Saudi Arabia.

The effect of this system (depression) formation is resulting in rain in the regions of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala.

According to US Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), the maximum sustained wind at the centre of this system on Saturday morning was around 30 knot (56km/hr) with air pressure of 1,000mb. This system along with a mid level trough (elongated low pressure at about 20,000 feet above the ground) running from this system towards Nepal generated a lot of clouding which covered entire Maharashtra, southern Gujarat, much of Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, some parts of Uttar Pradesh, Nepal and Sikkim. As a result, maximum temperatures must have come down in these areas with rains (drizzle to light rains).

Accuweather alerts India

AccuWeather.Com reports: One possibility is that the cyclone would take more of a westward track, causing it to threaten eastern Yemen or Oman by Tuesday into Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding appears to be the greatest concern; however, coastal areas could be battered by damaging winds depending on how strong the cyclone becomes. After a possible landfall in Oman, the storm may be pulled northeastward, crossing back over the Arabian Sea and bringing potentially heavy rainfall to parts of Pakistan and northwestern India later next week.
If the storm continues northwest but remains over the Arabian Sea early next week, interaction with a weak dip in the jet stream to the north will continue to pull the cyclone north to northeast with an eventual landfall in Pakistan or northwestern India as a significant cyclone capable of producing damaging winds, flooding and mudslides. Since several factors will determine the exact track of Nilofar, anyone with interests in the southern Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan or northwestern India should monitor this situation closely in the coming days.

IMD says Cyclone will hit Oman and Yemen

Times of Oman reports that the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the agency responsible for tropical cyclone advisories in the northern Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea, said that low pressure over west-central and adjoining south and east-central Arabian Sea has concentrated into a depression.It lay centred 940 kilometres (km) east-southeast of Salalah and 1,400 km west-southwest of Mumbai, India. An IMD update this morning said it would intensify another round into a deep depression by today (Sunday). The depression would initially move west-northwest towards south Oman and adjoining Yemen, the IMD said in its first assessment of its possible track.

Do track the cyclone at Satellite picture page of IMD website on this link.

Lesser strength than Hudhud:

Hindu Business Line reports: In its outlook posted at 5.30 am IST, the US Naval Observatory points to this location for landfall of the ‘numbered cyclone 04A’ around November 1. ‘Numbering’ of a storm is the penultimate step to referring it by a name – this time the turn of Pakistan which has contributed ‘Nilofar’ to the pool of names. The US agency said the cyclone may not ratchet up to the strength originally estimated, and could feature peak wind speeds of 138 km/hr ahead of landfall. This pales in comparison to the very severe cyclone Hudhud that had fanned up ferocious gusts over 200 km/hr while striking the Vizag coast on October 12.

Tropical Cyclone 04A (Nilofar) named in Arabian Sea. Forecast to skirt Oman coast & move NE toward Pakistan. pic.twitter.com/A88aL74JrE

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) October 25, 2014