Japan K Pathak, Gandhinagar: Over 47 lakh people in Gujarat cast their votes in the February 2025 local elections. Now these elections for local bodies of self-governance took place across a variety of areas—urban, semi-urban, rural, and tribal. Now this 47 lakh count, to say precisely 47.87 lakh count, is a considerably big sample, and no survey agency can come up with this sample size if they go out to survey to know the political situation on the ground in Gujarat. So considering these 47.87 lakh votes as a big recent sample, as per the detailed verdict declared by the State Election Commission, we can safely say that ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) continues to be in a strong position in Gujarat.

So BJP, as per the detailed verdict we analyzed, received 52.79% of the votes, while the main opposition, Congress, could get 27.98% of the votes, and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had 4.29% of the votes. Now it is damn interesting to note that in the 2022 state assembly elections in Gujarat, the ruling BJP had won 52.5 percent of the votes, while Congress was at 27.3 percent and AAP was at 12.9 percent. So in the case of BJP and Congress, the verdict of 47.87 lakh voters has been ditto same 52%+ and 27%+. AAP’s vote share has reduced, of course, but Congress has not been able to up its game, which indicates that there’s a sizeable number of voters who continue to shift from Congress to other options—if not AAP, then anyone else, be it independents, Samajwadi Party, all some small local outfit contesting the local body election. So in case of municipal elections with oer 35 lakh voters, we see SP getting nearly 2% votes, BSP nearly 1.50% votes, AIMIM getting nearly 1% votes and independents getting nearly 14% votes. Congress was at 26.26% while AAP was at 4.28%.

Top Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, during his recent visit to Gujarat, said the the opposition in Gujarat has around 40% vote share. He said there’s a need to shift 5% vote share in favor of the opposition. He also gave the example of Telangana, where Congress could up its vote share by 22% in a single election of the state assembly and won it. The fact is the 40% vote share of the opposition was divided between Congress and AAP in the last assembly elections of 2022. In view of Rahul’s statement, it appears that he has almost made up his mind to contest the next assembly elections of Gujarat in 2027 and has joined hands with other opposition parties, especially AAP. However, AAP leader Atishi Marlena has stated in Goa that the party will go solo in Goa and Gujarat polls. However, her announcement can’t be taken as paththar ki lakir. By the time the elections approach, AAP and Congress may make up their minds to go jointly. But even in that scenario, BJP’s position is very strong, which is clearly mirrored in the recent 47.87 lakh votes sample.

Congress needs to self-search where it actually it exists as of today. In the local polls verdict, it clearly appears that whatever notable performance Congress has exhibited wherever in these local polls, it is thanks to the presence of a large number of Muslim voters there. It doesn’t mean that Hindu voters have completely rejected the Congress party, but it can be seen very clearly that the wins from Muslim-populated areas are eye-catchingly high. At the same time, we can also observe that a large number of Muslim voters too are shifting from Congress to whatever option is available, in some cases BJP and in some cases other non-BJP opposition parties or even independents.

To be specific, let’s see the results of the Chhota Udepur municipality election results. The Muslim voters here made victorious 6 SP candidates, 6 independents, 4 BSP candidates, 1 Navin Bharat Nirman Manch (a local outfit), and 4 Sarva Samaj Party (a local outfit) candidates. The Muslims elected only one Congress candidate, Nasimabanu Dal, here.

Out of 68 municipalities that went to elections, BJP formed a ruling body in 65, while Congress formed it in only one Salaya municipality. 2 municipalities went to SP. While SP won two municipalities not because of the banner of SP but due to Kandhal Jadeja’s personal rapport with voters, the Congress won Salaya municipality, again due to Muslim voters. So out of a total of 28 seats, Congress won 15 here—all Muslims. But if 100% of Muslims had stayed with Congress, it could win all 28 seats here, because Salaya has complete dominance of Muslim voters across 28 seats. What is eye-catching in Salaya and elsewhere was that the Muslim voters too are in search of an alternative to Congress. So 13 seats in Salaya were won by AAP. All of them are Muslims, barring just one. The same was evident in the Mangrol municipality election also. Muslims gave 4 seats to BSP and 1 to independent, while also giving 15 seats to Congress in a 36-seat municipality. Congress had made an alliance with AAP here. AAP’s one candidate was elected here—a Muslim.

So what is indicative in the detailed result are the following points: –

– Congress has not progressed even a little after disastrous performance in 2022 assembly polls. Its vote share remains the same: 27%.

– Congress formed a ruling body in one Salaya town only out of a total of 68 towns that went to elections. Salaya has near-total dominance of Muslim voters, and all winning candidates of Congress here are Muslims.

– Even Muslims are in significant numbers shifting their loyalty to BJP and other non-BJP parties/candidates, which is evident in results. Thus, Congress’s only loyal group of voters in Gujarat is also now divided. This pattern was seen in previous local polls and in the state assembly polls as well.

– Party number two (Congress) and three (AAP) contested jointly in the Mangrol municipality election to prevent division in Muslim votes. But Muslims voted for BSP candidates and an independent as well here. AAP’s and Congress’s combined votes couldn’t offer half a mark. AAP has weakened compared to 2022. It couldn’t contest the local polls widely, and its presence was not felt much.

– Barring a victory in Banaskantha Lok Sabha elections in 2024, Congress has not been able to make any significant election victory and its performance is sliding down further.

– The second opposition party, AAP, did not have enough candidates to field everywhere. Among the candidates it fielded, some in Muslim areas have emerged victorious. AAP has reduced its vote share significantly, but if it does a high-voltage campaign similar to the year 2022 Gujarat assembly polls in 2027, it can up its vote share, it appears. AAP didn’t contest assembly by-polls that were held after the 2022 assembly elections in Gujarat. The next shall be the by-election of Visavdar and Kadi assembly seats. It has to be seen whether Congress offers the Visavdar seat to AAP, because the seat is vacant due to the resignation of former AAP MLA and AAP leaders Gopal Italiya and Isudan Gadhvi, who are desperate to contest from here. At present, after its peak in 2022, AAP in Gujarat is at the level of irrelevancy non-electorally and at the level of claimant for a small share of non-BJP votes electorally.

– Even if Congress and AAP contest the next Gujarat assembly polls in 2027 jointly, as per the present situation, we can easily conclude that BJP will emerge victorious with a lesser number of seats but with a smooth and comfortable majority (around 122 seats or even more). DeshGujarat