Ahmedabad, 10 December 2012

This is the ninth article of JP’s ‘Gujarat Election 2012′ series on DeshGujarat. In this series, the first article was about the possible election schedule, the second article made the point that Gujarat elections in 2012 are incomparable with Gujarat assembly elections of the past. The third article was about abolished seats. The fourth article was about newly added seats. The fifth article was about changes in the reserved seats for SC/STs and its impacts over political career of RC Faldu, Nitin Patel, Pradipsinh Jadeja and others. In the sixth article I shared the final delimitation order with some historical background. In seventh article I talked about the results of 2009 Lok Sabha polls in Gujarat perspective. In 8th article I talked about an interesting pattern, the voters of Gujarat follow, now here is the ninth article in this series.

So when do the people change the existing government? And when they don’t?

Here are some observations, strictly limited to Gujarat politics.

Gujarat became a separate state in 1960, and since then the state has witnessed 11 assembly elections so far.

And it happened only twice that people didn’t re-elect the government that they had elected in the previous election.

Difficult to understand? Let me explain.

In 1962, people elected Congress. They repeated the choice in 1967 and 1972 elections, but in 1975 they didn’t reelect Congress, which was a breakthrough.

Then Congress regained power in Gujarat in 1980 elections and also got another chance in 1985.

And then came another breakthrough. In 1990 people rejected the Congress government and elected the Janata Dal – BJP alliance to power. From then on, BJP continued to be reelected to power in Gujarat, be it 1995 or 1998 or 2002 or 2007.

So there were two major breakthroughs; first one in 1975 and another in 1990, when people shifted their loyalty to another political party.

It is largely perceived that Gujaratis are business minded people. And I have observed that this ‘business minded’ spirit reflects in the election results.

People in Gujarat, mostly prefer political stability which is one of the most important ingredients for healthy business environment and growth.

But then what exactly happened to stability loving people of Gujarat in 1975 and 1990? Why people stopped believing in the incumbent governments?

Well, the big blunders committed by those governments were responsible for that. “Big blunder” was a key factor.

The blunders committed by the Chimanbhai Patel government in early 1970s resulted into the Navnirman movement, and Chimanbhai had to go. And in middle of 1980s the blunders committed by the Madhavsinh Solanki government resulted into Anamat andolan. Madhavsinh too had to go.

Let’s first have a look at the big blunder no. 2: The Anamat andolan.

The Congress government was elected to power in Gujarat in March 1985 under the leadership of then Chief Minister Madhavsinh Solanki with victory on 149 seats out of total 182. This was a remarkable and historic victory indeed.

But soon after Solanki came to power, there was a 190-day long Anamat andolan. Anamat andolan was about partial execution of Rane commission’s report on reservation policy(details in the foot note). Anamat andolan compelled Madhavsinh to resign, but it took months.

A tribal MLA Amarsinh Chaudhary replaced Madhavsinh. And then there were three years of continuous drought between 1986 and 1988. Out of around 18,000 total villages in Gujarat, 13,390 were drought affected in 1985-86. Effectively over 15,000 villages were facing water scarcity at that time. Two crore people (total population was around 3.5 crore) and 1.2 million cattle were affected. One Nanjibhai of Janvada sold his 15-year-old child in Amdavad’s Kubernagar area for Rs 500. Collector of Rajkot himself had filed a report of crores of rupees of corruption in government run Rafaleshwar cattle camp.

As if Anamat and droughts were not enough, the law and order situation made life worse. There were 89 incidents of bomb blast in just two and half years period of Amarsinh Chaudhary’s rule. Health minister Vallabhbhai Patel was murdered in public. MLA Popatbhai Sorathia was killed in another murder incident. Pirzada, an ex-MLA from minority community in Wankaner died in a bomb blast. Two persons were killed in police firing while agitating against state government’s decision to transfer then Rajkot Municipal Commissioner Jagdishan. Farmers had marched to assembly house and attacked then former CM Madhavsinh Solanki. A known criminal Abdul Latif fought the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation election from five different wards and won from all.

On economic side, budget deficit in 1988-89 was whopping Rs 343 crore. To cover it, Rs 170 crore worth of taxes including Entry tax and Turnover tax were imposed. In 1989-90 the deficit figure was down to Rs 248 crore, but it was still significant, especially in light of the fact that in 1980s, revenue expenditure was up by five-fold, and deficit saw seven-fold rise!

And amid all mess narrated above, the Anamat riots were very much fresh in the minds of the voters in Gujarat, thanks to the leading Gujarati daily Gujarat Samachar whose office building was burnt allegedly on the directions of the higher ups in police and in power during the Anamat riots.

In such circumstances, people of Gujarat were in search for any viable alternative. Thanks to Jan Sangha’s roots, BJP was in power in Surat Municipal Corporation and in some other civic bodies. There were 11 BJP MLAs too in the assembly.

On the urban front, Congress tasted a series of defeats in the Municipal Corporation polls. BJP won the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation for the first time in 1987. Surat was captured little earlier and Rajkot too had joined the trend. Good governance and clean image of Amdavad Mayor Jayendra Pandit and others further popularized the party. Congress tasted defeat in one Lok Sabha by-election in tribal Gujarat too.

People of Gujarat always keep close watch over national issues. The issues like Ram janma bhoomi/Babri masjid, terrorism in Kashmir, situation of Kashmiri pundits, section 370 in Kashmir, Shahbano case, terrorism in Punjab, emergence of the leadership of VP Singh and Advani, growing unpopularity of Rajiv Gandhi due to Boforse case, other issues like Shanti sena debacle, sentiment against dynastic rule etc played significant role in pushing the people towards Alternative – which was BJP and VP Singh.

In 1989, the Congress party under Rajiv Gandhi lost Lok Sabha poll. Congress could win only 3 out of total 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat. Amarsinh Chaudhary was asked to resign, and Madhavsinh Solanki was placed again as CM on direction of Rajiv Gandhi. Anamat blunder got life again in the minds of people, thanks to Madhavsinh’s re-entry.

Congress’s pro-Kshatriyas stand was out and open. Powered by Kshatriya Harijan Adivasi Muslim(KHAM) theory, Madhavsinh had sidelined the 20% population of Patidar community(Patels) in the state. In fact Madhavsinh’s cabinet had not a single Patel minister! Lakshmipura convention of Kshatriyas in Vadodara further propelled the Kshatriya power.

BJP leader Vallabh Kathitia told me that BJP’s then grass-root leaders including Suryakant Acharya and others had formed committees against gundaism in villages of Saurashtra. Most of these committees were dominated by local Patidars(Patels) as members, and protection against dominance of Kshatriyas(patronized by Kshatriya CM Madhavsinh) was the main idea.

In 1990, the voters of Gujarat elected an alliance of Janata Dal led by VP Singh and BJP led by Advani. In Gujarat, while Chimanbhai was the face of Janata Dal, the BJP had not introduced any particular CM candidate before the election. Narendra Modi was popular as intellectual organization man and popular orator in an urban class, Shankersinh too was well known as party president, but just after the election, the party introduced Keshubhai Patel, who until then, was largely known only in Saurashtra.

There is an impression that national events were only responsible for defeat of Congress party in Gujarat in 1990. Yes national events played their role, but the fact is that Congress could taste defeat in Gujarat anyway, thanks to the local blunders including the master blunder of messing up with the people during Anamat. BJP’s victories in Civic polls in 1987 must not be forgotten in this context. People were searching option of Congress party right during the Anamat andolan in 1985 itself. They waited for five years, and in the meantime got many more reasons to back their idea of shifting loyalty and defeating then government. Anamat was a big blunder. And people of Gujarat don’t forget/forgive the big blunders when they go to vote.

On Anamat andolan in brief:

A commission for upliftment of social and education wise backward class in Gujarat was formed on 20th April under retired High Court Judge C.V.Rane.

The Rane commission gave its report on 31 October 1983, in which two main recommendetions were made:

1. OBC and other 63 socially and education wise backward classes should be considered eligible for government jobs under reserved quota.

2. To implement this, 18% reservation should be added to (then) existing 31% reservation. Thus the total percentage of reservation should be 49%.

The commission clearly had made a recommendation that those having maximum annual income of Rs 10,000 only should get the benefits of this.

Madhavsinh Solanki delayed the implementation of commission’s recommendation for 14 months and apparently to take benefits in elections when the assembly elections were announced, he announced the Rane commission report and added that his government would implement it.

Madhavsinh govt announced to increase the reservation percentage as per the Rane commission report, but at the same time it refused to consider the other recommendation of Rane commission that only those earning less than Rs 10,000 annually should get benefits of reservation.

This sparked anger in February 1985. After an interval for assembly elections(March 1985), the anger turned into a full scale agitation. Madhavsinh made an announcement to postpone the execution of Rane report for one year, but the situation went out of control Army was called, PM and Union Home Minister had to visit Amdavad, 23 houses were burnt to ashes in Dabgarwad area of Amdavad. In total, during the Anamat riots 180 were dead, 6000 displaced, 1600 incidents of arson were registered, Rs 2200 crore loss was witnessed.

Next article on NavNirman blunder.