By Japan K Pathak
Gandhinagar: Rajya Sabha election for three seats of Gujarat has been announced by the Election Commission of India. If there are three candidates for three seats, polling will not take place and three candidates will be declared victorious unopposed(in that case two BJP candidates and one Congress candidate). However if fourth candidate enters into fray with BJP support and if he is able to manage support of 11-15 non-BJP MLAs, then there can be upset on third seat. Now this is totally speculative and it hasn’t happened recently in Gujarat, but for the knowledge of what could be the look of Rajya Sabha election with additional candidate in fray, let’s understand this:

Gujarat has total 182 assembly seats. It has 11 Rajya Sabha seats. Tenure of Rajya Sabha member is 6 years. Rajya Sabha election takes place once in every two years for 4 – 4 – 3 seats.

At present, the election has been declared for 3 seats. Based on the number of MLAs, 2 of them are with BJP and 1 seat is with Congress.

If only 3 candidates are in fray, they will be declared victorious without election. It happens routinely in Gujarat most of the time.

But suppose if 4th candidate is fielded with BJP support, polling may take place for 3 seats. Let’s understand how fourth candidate can turn uninteresting Rajya Sabha election of three seats into interesting one.

In Gujarat, ideally one would need (182 MLAs/3 seats+1) = 46 MLAs to get elected as Rajya Sabha member through first preference votes.

BJP has 121 seats in assembly.

46+46 = 92 BJP MLAs can elect two Rajya Sabha MPs comfortably, but suppose if fourth candidate is in fray with BJP support and BJP wants to make him/her victorious, then BJP would need another 46 MLAs, which comes to additional 17 MLAs or total strength of 138 MLAs in the house. The actual strength of BJP is 121 MLAs.

Suppose if fourth candidate is fielded with BJP support(31 MLAs) and he manages to get support of 15-20 MLAs from non-BJP fold, he can win the election by touching magic figure of 46.

Now lets go to Congress fold.

Congress has 56 MLAs in the assembly. To elect its one candidate Congress would need 46 MLAs. Since Congress has 10 seats surplus, ideally if all Congress MLAs vote for party’s choice of candidate, Congress can comfortably get one seat. But if more than 10 Congress MLAs jump to BJP supported fourth candidate’s fold, then Congress candidate may lose. But suppose if 1 JDU MLA and 2 NCP MLAs plus one MLA from Dhari who was unhappy with BJP(total four) choose to vote for Congress, then fourth candidate supported by BJP would need to get support of at least 15 MLAs from Congress fold(it depends, if NCP’s two MLAs support fourth candidate, then fourth candidate would need to garner support of 13 Congress MLAs).

It should be noted here that Rajya Sabha poll witnesses open voting. Which MLA has voted for whom is easily known to everyone. It’s not secret voting. But at the same time, the anti-defection law doesn’t apply to Rajya Sabha elections. If Congress MLA selects to vote for other candidate breaching party’s whip, his seat remains safe. He would get party’s show cause notice, and many be suspension, but that’s it.

If some MLA is absent for some reasons during voting, his/her vote is not considered. In June 2016, Congress MLA Devendrasinh Bittu was absent from voting and therefore Congress had lost Rajya Sabha seat by one vote. Similarly Jharkhand Mukti Morcha MLA Chamra Linda had also remained absent. In Haryana, Congress MLAs had used own pens to cast votes which was against the rule and therefore their votes were considered invalid and Zee media group head Subhash Chandra had been victorious as independent candidate.

Now suppose, the fourth candidate supported by BJP and the official Congress candidate both fail to get 46 votes (46 MLAs) each, then the second preference votes are counted as per the single transferable vote(STV) system.

In Rajya Sabha elections, MLAs cast vote in preferential manner. So first preference vote to this candidate, second preference vote to that candidate, third preference to another, fourth preference… likewise. Now you must note here that it is not mandatory to fill in all preferences other than the first preference. If there are threes seats and four candidate, and any three candidate get 46 or more votes each, then they are declared victorious, but if any two candidates get less than 46 votes(MLAs) each(so what if one less vote – 45) then the second preference votes are counted. Now if this happens, BJP with greater number of MLAs can easily win third seat through second preference votes.

It must be noted that Gujarat is going to witness assembly election later this year. Strong MLAs who vote for fourth candidate may fix deal with BJP for ticket in assembly election, they may vote or remain absent for fourth candidate due to personal relations or for some benefit.

DeshGujarat