By Japan K Pathak

Gandhinagar: There were several perceptions that were hurting the image and prospects of BJP in recent times in Gujarat. Some of them are listed here.

Perceptions:

– BJP is weak in rural areas of Gujarat,

– BJP is weak particularly in rural Saurashtra,

– Patel voters are yet not entirely happy with BJP,

– Farmers are against BJP

– Those who leave Congress and join BJP are mostly defeated by voters in election

Such perceptions went lauder day-by-day not just because of general picture emerging from mainly Facebook oriented propaganda and news reports in regional TV and print media, but also due to the election results of taluka and district panchayats and assembly in year 2015 and year 2017 respectively.

Gujarat BJP is in great relief after party’s victory in Jasdan assembly seat by-poll because the result of this election has somewhat give BJP a cover against five main perceptions listed above.

Cover:

– BJP is weak in rural areas? Well, Jasdan is entirely a rural constituency. Jasdan and Vinchhiya are small towns. The constituency has 105 villages too.

– BJP is weak in rural Saurashtra? Well rural Jasdan is located at heart place of Saurashtra. It is located in the portion geographically between Rajkot, Chotila, Gondal and Amreli.

– Patel voters are yet under influence of year 2015 violence and still upset with BJP? Well, Jasdan has significantly large chunk of Patel voters, second after Koli voters. BJP has enjoyed lead across all booths including those where Patel voters are in plenty of numbers. There’s a village where Congress aide Hardik Patel addressed a gathering. BJP candidate has however got more votes than rival Congress candidate in this village, results show.

– Farmers are against BJP? Well, the entire Jasdan area including over 100 villages, largely depend on agriculture and related activities. BJP candidate has received lead everywhere, the results show.

– BJP candidate Kunvarjibhai would not win because he left Congress and joined BJP? Well, Kunvarjibhai has won this election with margin ofnearly 20,000 votes.

Even in adverse circumstances, BJP had continued to win urban areas in year 2015 panchayat/civic elections and year 2017 general assembly elections, and therefore there was nothing new if BJP had won some urban by-poll somewhere in Gujarat. But Jasdan was a rural by-poll. If it was Southern Gujarat seat, the victory of BJP candidate would have been considered as just another victory, but Jasdan is part of Saurashtra which is considered weaker area for BJP in perception, and therefore the joy was doubled for BJP cadres and leaders after Jasdan results were out.

Ripples:

– Rupani is seemingly more confident after Jasdan win. Look at his body language, his presence on the stages after Jasdan victory.

– Setback of BJP losing three states has been somewhat neutralised with succeeding headlines of Jasdan win. The mood that had faded after three-state loss has been repaired.

– As undisputed and powerful Koli community leader Parshottam Solanki is unwell and continues to be under medical treatment, BJP has snatched a campaigner for Koli community from Congress in the form of Kunvarji Bavalia. Koli voters enjoy great influence in several Lok Sabha seats mainly in Saurashtra region. BJP has given cabinet portfolio and new political life to Kunvarji. It will be his job to return favour with delivering gains in Lok Sabha elections.

– Discontent within State Congress regarding leadership, approach, stye of functioning, decision making process and distribution of positions by GPCC president Amit Chavda has surfaced after Jasdan defeat. 17 State Congress leaders were hosted for over 3 hours closed door meeting by former State party chief Arjun Modhwadia. Those who were present in this meeting include Modhwadia, Siddharth Patel, Naresh Rawal, Sagar Rayka, Murtuza Khan Pathan, Dinsha Patel, Soma Ganda Patel, Alpesh Thakor, Shailesh Parmar, Indravijaysinh Gohil, Himmat Singh Patel among others. In his briefing post this meeting, Alpesh Thakor openly spoke about insult and neglect of efficient people in party’s state unit. If Jasdan had been won by Congress, this could not happened for sure. If this fire is not doused, crack will be even wider by the time of Lok Sabha elections within Congress.

– BJP has increased its tally to 100 aka in 3 digit. This is great relief for party. Gujarat assembly has total 192 seats. BJP would conventionally get over 115 seats. However in year 2017 general elections of assembly, BJP could win only 99 seats. Gujarat as a business state would need stable government. Even majority voters are conventionally pro-establishment in political behaviour. BJP has attracted support of independent Congress rebel MLA elected from Lunawada seat. This makes the figure at 101. Relief to NCP MLA Kandhal Jadeja in couple of crime cases in Porbandar belt would attract another vote in BJP’s favor when needed. This makes it 102. One independent MLA who had extended support to Congress is facing disqualification for alleged fake tribal certificate. At least five more opposition MLAs are believed to be in soft contact with BJP. Kunvarjibhai’s win may have made them even softer to BJP. Jasdan is one step towards target-105-through-by-polls.

Riders

There are several arguments in other direction. One argument is, Jasdan is Kunvarji Bavaliya’s personal victory and BJP can’t take away its credit. Counter argument is – if BJP had lost Jasdan, would same political pundits argue in same manner that this was Kunvarjibhai’s personal defeat and not that of BJP’s? What about doubled margin of victory of Kunvarjibhai within one year? What about all sections of voters voting for him?

There’s also an argument, that Jasdan is seat-specific case, and it should be seen in that fashion only. Jasdan win can not be generalised. Picture of entire rural Gujarat, rural Saurashtra, whole farming lot can not be derived from seat-specific Jasdan win.

There’s one more thing to keep in mind that BJP could mobilise its whole state team in Jasdan as it was the stand-along by-poll. Same will not be the case during the general elections, when BJP strength will be in distribution across 182 assembly seats or 26 Lok Sabha seats. So that will be the real test. But then there’s counter argument that Jasdan was stand-along election for Congress too! Even Congress had employed its entire strength.

DeshGujarat