Gandhinagar (Japan K Pathak): Gujarat saw resignations of 8 Congress MLAs this year. Gujarat also witnessed a Rajya Sabha election this year in which BJP snatched away one seat from Congress. Gujarat witnessed 8-seat by-polls of assembly also this year and BJP won all those 8 seats. But the biggest political development of year 2020 in Gujarat is passing away of Ahmed Patel.

Rajya Sabha MP from Gujarat, Congress party’s national treasurer and political secretary of national president of Congress party Sonia Gandhi, Ahmed Patel’s sad and sudden departure affects the politics in the State, because it affects the main and only significant opposition, Congress party.

Ahmedbhai was a father figure for Gujarat Congress for almost three decades. Whoever is Gujarat Congress president or leader of opposition, whoever is party high command for Gujarat, whoever is party’s chief nationally, Ahmedbhai was the person, under whose shadow, the public and private affairs of Gujarat Congress would shape up and run.

For any internal party dispute, Ahmedbhai’s bungalow in New Delhi was the Supreme Court. Disputes over ticket distribution or decisions on appointment on posts would ultimately reach Ahmedbhai’s house. Ahmedbhai would work as a perfect bridge between Gujarat Congress and Delhi leadership. He would also work as a bridge between party’s Gujarat unit and Congress governments in party-ruled states and the Centre.

His departure affects Gujarat Congress in multiple ways.

1. Gujarat Congress has lost its accessible and effective link to party president Sonia Gandhi.

2. Ahmed Patel could also serve as a bridge between Gujarat Congress and emerging central leader Priyanka Gandhi. The link potentially useful in future is lost.

3. Gujarat Congress will now increasingly rely on links to party president Rahul Gandhi. Links such as Rajeev Satav, the party high command for Gujarat, appointed by then Congress president Rahul Gandhi, wouldn’t serve equal purpose.

4. Many from Gujarat Congress had managed to get party posts, as Ahmed Patel had found them worthy for those posts and he recommended and placed them. With departure of Ahmedbhai, there’s none to pitch for such leaders in Delhi.

5. There’s none in Gujarat Congress who is capable to inherit Ahmedbhai’s vast network of key contacts in various fields such as media, politics, industry across Gujarat. Firstly someone has to fully in know of this network. Secondly, someone has to have required skills and suitable personal nature to successfully maintain, revive and sustain the key contacts that Ahmedbhai had established, inroads that he had built.

6. Ahmedbhai’s presence was enough for Muslims in Gujarat to vote for Congress party. His one visit to poll-bound constituencies was sufficient for Muslims to vote for Congress in bulk. His passing away will be a loss of face in this domain. As he was unwell, Ahmedbhai couldn’t play role in candidates selection and also couldn’t participate in the recently concluded 8-assembly seat polls campaign in Gujarat. And the result speaks for itself. Muslim voters have overwhelmingly voted for candidates other than Congress party in various constituencies, the data suggests. Muslim population in Gujarat is as such not politically decisive in number but for Congress party, Muslim votes are very important, as they contribute to victories of number of candidates at number of places.

7. There’s no leader left in Gujarat Congress who enjoys clout as high as Ahmed Patel. Congress may need to add weight to some senior and experienced available Gujarat Congress leader like Arjun Modhwadia or anyone else from the State whom the leadership trusts, by sending him to Rajya Sabha or giving decisive position and developing and placing such leader as a new link between party’s Gujarat unit and party chief. Shaktisinh Gohil is already there in Rajya Sabha, but he has been made incharge of Bihar and Delhi. He too is poised to emerge as an important link between Gujarat Congress and Rahul Gandhi eventually, but for now he has been assigned Bihar and Delhi. Congress has not even a single Lok Sabha member from Gujarat. The party has Shaktisinh Gohil, Naran Rathwa and Amiben Yajnik as Rajya Sabha members. Seat that is vacant due to passing away of Ahmed Patel will see by-poll but looking at present strength in the assembly, BJP is poised to win it, most probably unopposed.

8. Ahmed Patel was a glue that would connect all factions, all leading office bearers of Gujarat Congress. It was like a hub and spoke model, with Ahmedbhai working as a hub, and others such as state party chief, former state party chiefs, the leader of opposition, the state party incharge, other office bearers, cadres etc connected as spokes. A purely pyramid shape, hierarchy model remains only way of life for Congress now, it seems.

It was not that Congress was super successful in Gujarat while functioning under the shadow of Ahmed Patel. But at least the party remained intact on the second position in the State with significant number of seats. There was no situation like West Bengal where Mamata Banerjee left Congress and formed her own party, or say YSR Congress in Andhra or Sharad Pawar led NCP in Maharashtra and likewise.

While BJP is in ‘mood to kill’ in the State with latest victory of all 8 seats in by-polls, victory on all 26 Lok Sabha seats twice, and further target of ‘winning all 182 seats’ in year 2022 general elections of assembly, Ahmed Patel’s sudden exit is no doubt the biggest political event of the State in present calendar year. Persons come, play role and go, but Ahmedbhai’s demise has come as a sudden shock. Congress wasn’t prepared for this.

DeshGujarat