Japan K Pathak: In around 30 days from now, the general election of Lok Sabha is likely to be declared by the Election Commission of India (ECI). The narrative so far is fully in favor of the ruling dispensation. All popularity surveys by agencies from India and abroad have given excellent popularity ratings to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and opinion polls have predicted BJP’s shining victory in the Lok Sabha elections that are likely to take place in April/May this year.

In 2014 by this time, the TV narrative was that the BJP will be the single largest party, and NDA a single largest alliance, but it will be well short of the half mark and some regional satrap, possibly Jagan from Andhra Pradesh or Jayalalitha from Tamil Nadu will be the king maker. However, the people of India voted overwhelmingly in favor of BJP and took it above the half mark in results.

In 2019 by this time, the TV and Pandit narrative was strongly in favor of the possibility of hung Lok Sabha. The surveys predicted BJP and NDA as the single largest but well below the half mark, and remarkable rise of Congress and opposition seats. The surveys showed the possibility that the parties other than BJP/NDA could get more seats than BJP/NDA and may get together to form the government. The narrative was powered by BJP’s poor performance in State elections such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhatisgarh. The narrative was also powered by quota agitations, farmers distress, increase in fuel prices, teething troubles pertaining to GST and more. However PM Modi took corrective actions in the last phase, such as 10 percent quota for economically backward, relief in GST for below Rs. 40 lakh mark annually, 150 increase in Minimum Support Price for farmers in addition to yearly Rs. 6,000 direct payment, understanding with America to protect India till election against ban on fuel purchase from Iran, and finally the Balakot strike against Pakistan and subsequent debate. No wonder, against the TV narrative which was strong till voting day regarding the possibility of a hung Lok Sabha, the voters gave even more number of seats to BJP.

Come 2024, the TV narrative is in favor of a clear majority to BJP and NDA this time. If in a match with the last two Lok Sabha elections, if the TV narrative is a bit conservative, then you can expect a massive result in favor of BJP. The Prime Minister has predicted a minimum of 370 seats for BJP. This man’s words have got a weight. When he says something, it means a lot. One can’t take lightly. PM Modi’s extraordinary popularity, the reach-out and benefits of government schemes, the sentiments around Ram Mandir, the actions taken to fix the Kashmir issue and success achieved in that domain, help the government extended whether the victims were depositors of Yes bank or students studying in Ukraine, or citizens in need of Covid19 vaccines, or poor people in need of support in post Covid periods. The bomb-blasts and terror attacks outside Kashmir are passes. Pakistan has become irrelevant. Amritpal and his Khalistani aides are sent to Assam jail. India’s most wanted are killed by ‘unknown persons’ wherever they are. Left wing terror (Maoists and Naxals) has been eliminated from many districts. The inevitable economic crisis in the shadow of the Covid-19 pandemic has been felt in other countries(Sri Lanka and Pakistan the closest examples), but India has remained quite insulated if not fully. Corruption-scams at the central ministerial level are no longer heard. Unmatched progress has been achieved in the infrastructure domain, and it’s so much that the figures are compared to not the previous ten years but previous decades since independence. Privatization of debt-ridden Air India was earlier dimmed as difficult and complex to the level of impossible, but this government could do it smoothly. Direct Benefit Transfer(DBT) largely eliminated leakage of Govt funds. The government also performed at its best during the coal and oxygen crisis. Ban and stringent regulations against NGOs over dubious foreign funds has also been a remarkable step by Modi led government. Ease of living through UPI mode of payment, Digi-locker etc. and ease of travelling through new highways, semi high-speed trains, UDAN schemes etc have touched crores of lives.

The most important thing is, the country has a goal now. It’s no longer a directionless journey for the country. In the last century countries like South Korea, Singapore, China fixed targets and started working towards achieving their national goals and they yielded a lot of success. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set a goal for the country and started laying foundations. There’s political essence too in this.The people don’t disturb a leader when the journey to a national goal is in progress. This government and this leader – they don’t talk about the next five years at all. They talk about the national goals to be achieved in the span of the next 25 years.

The last three Lok Sabha elections have become the elections of approval – whether you want to approve Mr. Modi to lead your nation or disapprove! Remotely if you think you want to disapprove Modi, the face that comes to your mind as an alternative is a serial-failure Rahul Gandhi and a hung parliament that may take you to the bad dreams of 1990s if you lived then. While the election is a couple of months away, the only content that goes viral about Rahul Gandhi is his funny remarks, childish mistakes and immature behavior. His agendas such as declaration of caste census and Ambani – Adani have not been able to win him elections in the past and the same will be the future. Rahul’s left agenda to position poor against rich, SC/ST/OBC against general, North vs South, villages vs cities, aspirants vs Agniveer, Gujarat vs Maharashtra, Savarkar vs other freedom fighters, media vs people is passe. This would not make him win an election.

A few days after Diwali, the Prime Minister launched Viksit Bharat Sankalp Yatra. The government in mid-January claimed the yatra reached 15 crore people across the country. This yatra was not newsy overall, but it was a massive exercise ahead of the general elections. The government machinery from village to central level was active in it with ‘whole government’ approach. The yatra was designed to create awareness about the government schemes and enroll even newer beneficiaries. Crores of people have been enrolled in government schemes through this yatra. Tones of literature in local languages have been distributed among people. Health camps, stage shows and drone demonstrations are organized under this yatra.

If cadres from Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh(RSS) and Vishwa Hindu Parishad(VHP) carried out a massive outreach ‘Akshat Invitation’ campaign to invite the people to Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, the government machinery carried out even greater outreach campaign to enroll the people in government schemes during Viksit Bharat Sankalp Yatra. The next reaching out will be from BJP cadres. It would be even further massive and longer(for example, in Gujarat, the booths and villages that need party’s attention are identified and over 50,000 BJP workers including the Chief Minister had a night-halt in such areas. The Prime Minister will anyway do whirlwind tours and further reach out). On alternative fronts, the social media and TV media are already buzzing. The ministers are more frequent on news channels, delivering their say. On the technology front, various systems are floated well in advance and they are working. One such system involves phone calling to beneficiaries of various schemes and taking feedback from them.

Unlike initial years when Modi as PM was in power but not control, in recent years it is increasingly felt that Modi is in power and now also in control of affairs. I would put here an interesting observation of one of the voters I bumped across. He opines that the delivery of Modi government has been so robust in this term that his whirlwind campaigns like the past are not required any more to win the election. The sentiment is like – take a rest Modi bhai in summer heat, you don’t need to visit us to seek votes, your performance is enough, we are going to vote for you without you coming and seeking it. The country and countrymen need you more as Prime Minister than you need their votes.

However there’s one example of the year 2004 elections that ruling parties can’t just forget. The predictions ahead of that election were very clear and unanimous that it’s just a ‘renewal election’, and Atal Bihari Vajpayee led government would be re-elected comfortably. However the ‘India Shining’ campaign failed, the government changed. It was quite a peaceful shift, and not vocal like that in 2014. Political wisdom suggests that a man can die by starvation and also by indigestion. A more tight-fight scenario, more BJP voters would come out and vote. A more comfortable-win scenario, more are the chances of complacency among supporters if not cadres. By the way, as I mentioned in the year 2004 election, I must note here that the reason why we face general elections in scorching summer is that the Vajpayee government in 2004 decided to go early in election after victories in State polls. So the usual cycle of election would be September/October, but due to the early election, the cycle changed to April/May. Every since then, thanks to full terms of subsequent governments, the general elections take place in summer. DeshGujarat

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