Gujarat Election 2017 Series

By Japan K Pathak

Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani on Tuesday told media persons in Gandhinagar that ruling Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP)’s target for upcoming Gujarat assembly general elections will be more than 150 seats. He said the party has got more than 300 seats in Uttar Pradesh and its target will be more than 150 seats in Gujarat.

So, is this target achievable? Let’s go through the background first.

Well, Gujarat BJP had set 150-seat target in previous assembly polls too in Gujarat. The party however won less than 120 seats, for which arty leaders clarified that higher target of 150 was aimed at to ensure 2/3rd majority which comes to 121 seats roughly in 182-seat assembly.

Ahead of the 2014 general elections of Lok Sabha, the then Gujarat Chief Minister and Prime Ministerial candidate of NDA Shri Narendra Modi had given 28 Lok Sabha seats target for Gujarat-Diu-Daman-Dadra Nagar Haveli. The BJP actually achieved this target and won all 28 seats including 26 from Gujarat which was a historic achievement.

In August 2016, BJP president Amit Shah in a public function in Gujarat said the BJP would win Gujarat in 2017 with 2/3rd majority. In a TV interview prior to that, senior BJP leader and top strategist Ram Madhav had said the BJP would win more seats in Gujarat compared to previous election.

Now after the results of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand which has been in favor of BJP, Rupani has pronounced that party’s target for upcoming Gujarat assembly polls will be more than 150 seats.

So the same question again: Is this target achievable?

Well, most people take this target as calculative higher goal set for actually ensure the realistically achievable victory of 2/3rd seats(121 of 182).

But then, the triumph of 150 seats can’t be rubbished entirely. If we go back to year 2014 and study the Lok Sabha results, the BJP in Gujarat had won all 26 seats. If we translate this to 182 assembly segments, BJP had been victorious on whopping 165 seats which comes to 90% of total seats. This was remarkable achievement. Gujarat has never-ever given all 26 seats to one party in any previous Lok Sabha election. Even in 1984, after the death of Indira Gandhi, when Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress won 401 seats nationally, Gujarat had given 24 seats to Congress and not all 26. On one more occasion, Congress had won 25 seats but not all 26. So in 2014 when the son of Gujarat was Prime Ministerial candidate, the BJP could achieve something unusual in Gujarat. We have to accept the fact that Prime Minister Modi enjoyed the support in 165 of 182 assembly segments in 2014. And Mr. Modi’s popularity has not gone down till than but has gone up and further up.

But two things need to be considered here. First thing, 2014 is not 2017. The situation in Gujarat has changed a lot post-2014. And second thing, there’s a difference between the voting pattern in Lok Sabha polls and assembly polls. People tend to vote differently in both. Say for example, in 2014 Abdasa assembly segment voted for assembly seat as well as for Kutch Lok Sabha seat on same day in same booths. While in Lok Sabha seat, Abdasa voted for BJP candidate, the same voters elected Congress candidate in assembly by-poll. So while Vinod Chavda who was BJP Lok Sabha seat candidate from Kutch got 12,000 surplus vote compared to nearest rival from Congress in Abdasa segment, the Congress candidate for assembly by-poll in Abdasa Mr. Shaktisinh Gohil won this assembly seat by margin of less than 1,000 votes. Same thing happened in Visavdar, where people voted for BJP in Lok Sabha but elected a Congress candidate in local assembly by-poll on the same day. So people cast votes in Lok Sabha and Vidhansabha differently. Same way, the people vote in Panchayats and assembly polls in different ways.

Couple of months back, general sentiment was that BJP will get lesser number of seats in upcoming Gujarat assembly polls, but will be able to have clear majority. However the recent visits of Prime Minister Modi to Gujarat and the results of Mumbai, Maharashtra and five-state elections jointly has brought further positive correction to macro sentiment prevailing in Gujarat for the BJP. There’s positivity for BJP in air here. If we go couple of months back, there was growing feeling that BJP would reduce its number of seats in Gujarat and may emerge as a borderline case. The recent election results elsewhere and special interest in Gujarat displayed by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah has taken care of macro sentiments.

It’s my observation after detailed study that since the birth of the state of Gujarat in 1960, the people here tend to reelect the government that they had elected in previous election, if the incumbent government has not committed any blunder. By ‘blunder’ I mean, govt messing up with majority section of people, killing of 100-200 people in violence, one-two months long curfew and riots or violent widespread agitation, combination of serious water trouble, price rice and corruption or dissatisfaction with the central face of the government.

I don’t think, Gujarat government has done any major blunder so far. And it should not do that in coming months too. The seasonal newsy issues and events keep changing every month and often every week. They don’t impact the general elections in decisive way. But at the same time the Patidar agitation was not just-another seasonal issue. It would impact the polls, but not in such a great proportion that it can unsettle the government. A section of Patidars was always pro-Congress. There are number of examples of Congress MLAs and MPs who are Patidars, elected from Patidar populated areas by section of Patidars. On upper side of possibility, may be few more Patidar MLAs perhaps from Congress next time, but that’s it.

Coming back to the figure of 150 seats, it was Congress Chief Minister Madhavsinh Solanki who had achieved it. Shri Pravin Sheth and others have attributed this victory to KHAM(Kshatriya, Harijan, Aadivasi, Muslim) strategy introduced by Solanki (which excluded Patels). However in his recent book, veteran Congress man Krushnakant Vakharia has challenged the theory. Vakharia in his book ‘Yugdarshan’ claims that it was not KHAM but national circumstances prevailing at that time that gave 149 seats to Congress. Vakharia observes that national political situation after Indira Gandhi’s murder was such that Congress won 401 seats in Lok Sabha. It was this situation that also gave Congress 149 seats in Gujarat. By the way 149 of 182(total seats) comes to 81.86% seats. But in 1972 assembly polls in Gujarat, the ruling Congress party had won 83.33% seats. At that time the total number of seats in Gujarat assembly was 168, of which Congress had won 139 of them. So how Gujarat Congress managed to achieve such a big mandate that year? Well, the general elections of Gujarat assembly were declared soon after Indo-Pak war under Indira Gandhi. That was the reason.

I often see Congress leaders reminding BJPians that even Modi couldn’t beat the record of Madhavsinh Solanki created in 1985( 149 seats). But actually the bigger record by Congress only was created in 1972 as mentioned above. In any case, Modi too has created a record which no-one else ever achieved in Gujarat in any previous election. Under the leadership of Modi, BJP won all 26 seats of Lok Sabha in Gujarat in 2014. This was not even thought about by Congress or any other party ever in the past in this state.

Coming back again to Rupani’s target 151. One reason why BJP may not be able to achieve 150-seat victory in Gujarat is that unlike Uttar Pradesh, there’s no BSP(say third strong party) to cut the votes of main opposition Congress here. If you look at the Uttar Pradesh results deeply, the BJP could win most of the seats mainly due to division of votes between SP and BSP. In Gujarat, NCP, JDU, AAP are small players but none of them so strong to make an overall impact. If any of them emerge as strong player and cut Congress party’s vote, BJP as a central force can get 150 seats, but that doesn’t seem possible as of now.

One way to achieve more number of seats for BJP in Gujarat is to induct some of the Congress satraps to its fold. These locally influential and successful Congress leaders consistently enjoy good hold over their constituency and even beyond. It’s bit overstatement, but on-the-ground there’s nothing like Congress in Gujarat. Actually, there are some hard-working and cordial Congress men in Gujarat who keep the show running for Congress through their own connectivity to voters. BJP has inducted some of them to its fold in previous polls. I was looking at the names of 17 assembly segments in which Congress enjoyed upper hand in year 2014 Lok Sabha elections when BJP performance was on its peak. The segments were Jamalpur Khadia, Danilimda, Vankaner(minorly), Jasdan, Anklav, Borsad, Petlad, Thasra, Danta, Khedbrahma, Bhiloda, Balashinor, Dahod, Chhota Udepur, Mandvi, Vyara and Nizar. Now if we study these areas, we find Jasdan voted for Congress due to Lok Sabha candidate Bavalia, Anklav, Borsad, Petlad, Thasra due to Bharatsinh Solanki and Ramsinh Parmar. Chhota Udepur due to Congress candidate Mr. Rathwa.

Questions are asked about BJP’s poor performance in district panchayat and taluka panchayat polls in 2015. As I said before, people vote differently in different elections. We should not forget that the panchayat polls were conducted just few weeks after Patidar quota agitation violence in Gujarat. We should also not forget that then Chief Minister Anandiben Patel was the face of the campaign in Panchayat polls. She has neither been a good orator nor good organizer and definitely not good campaigner. However, that era is over. The agenda of assembly polls is different. The face is going to be different. Campaign will be led by the longest serving Gujarati chief minister and prime minister Narendra Modi. Strategies will be chalked out by none other than Amit Shah himself who has experience of leading some of the toughest elections. There are no simultaneous elections elsewhere. BJP can employ its best strategists and organizers to the task. BJP is going to be in its best capacity to spend. The party can neutralized micro dissent or anti-incumbency by roping in the best winnable candidate there.

‘Congress is finished elsewhere, and you just can’t vote Congress’ could be an aggressive line of BJP campaign on macro level, but underestimating the micro situation – constituency wise and voter-group wise – will be a mistake. Just taking care of macro sentiments propelled by Modi led campaign and related wave may not be enough to get desired number of seats. I don’t see at this point of time, the micro level care-taking, especially in troubled areas is happening in BJP camp.

I am concluding this note here, but watch the attached video in which I discussed few more elements on this topic.

DeshGujarat