Gujarat Elections Series

Japan K Pathak

It was in last July last year when Gujarat Congress incharge Gurudas Kamat had declared that party would announce its candidates for Gujarat polls well in advance in December 2016- one year ahead of scheduled time of Gujarat assembly elections. Applications were invited from ticket aspirants and each aspirant was asked to submit the names and details of 15 supporters in each booth of seat he/she was claiming, before August 31st.

Now here is March ending, and all those aspirants who had applied for party tickets were wondering all these months what happened to their applications! Then the cadre of Gujarat Congress was somewhat further demoralized after the five-state assembly polls results in which BJP could form its governments in four states. The convention of ticket aspirants called in Ahmedabad to keep morale of its cadre high was therefore timely.

Around 1500 ticket aspirants were present in the hall. In every such function of Gujarat Congress, there are too many leaders who deliver speeches from the stage. It was good that the function was held in air conditioned hall. It was also good that State party president passed a clear instruction that none speaker should mention entire list of leaders before starting the speech. The speeches by-and-large were short. Some of speeches like that of Tushar Chaudhary and Arjun Modhwadia were well admired by cadre. Actual headline of the function came from State party president Bharatsinh Solanki who declared that the process of selection of candidates would begin next week. However Shankersinh Bapu’s newsy announcement stole the show for obvious reasons.

In context of BJP which generally keeps away media from its  auditorium meets that are generally held at party headquarters Kamalam in Gandhinagar, one thing must be admired. Though this was somewhat internal kind of function of Congress party and that too a strategic one, it was kept open for entire media. In fact the entire function was relayed live on Periscope and Facebook. And I must note here that Gujarat Congress’s IT team is much better performing and motivated compared to that of BJP.

State party incharge Gurudas Kamat in his talk said the screening process for selection of candidates will start soon. He admitted that he couldn’t announce the candidates in December 2016 which was the earlier target. He added that he would at least see that the candidates are declared six month before scheduled time of polls which means in June-July.

Is this possible?

Well, in 2012 screening committed under then union minister CP Joshi was formed in the month of July and it was decided in the month of August that final decision on candidates will be taken by party’s national president Smt Sonia Gandhi. Later the candidates were actually declared in the month of November, that too in three parts. Even for strategic reasons it is virtually not possible to declare the list of candidates well in advance. On many seats it is essential for Congress party to know that who is BJP’s candidate, before deciding its own candidate.

The question is, if you are unable to announce the candidates early, why all loud announcements and fuss about it?

Party insiders indicate that some of the candidates are already decided and they are conveyed about their selection. In yesterday’s gathering of ticket aspirants, the sitting MLAs were not invited. It is possible that most of the sitting MLAs are conveyed about their continuation as candidate in upcoming assembly polls.

About Shankersinh’s announcement in the function that he was withdrawing self from the race of chief minister’s post.

Shankersinh’s this announcement doesn’t sound sincere and honest. His attempt to display higher morale ground doesn’t seem genuine. After his announcement in the speech, he spoke to media persons and clarified that the decision of Congress Chief Minister will be taken by elected MLAs. Vaghela had in fact in his speech cleverly given example of Uttar Pradesh. He had said that the decision of making Adityanath as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh was not taken by Modi and Shah but it was taken after 175 MLAs shouting and pressing for Adityanath’s name for the CM post . Vaghela indicated that Gujarat Congress if elected to power will select its CM candidate in same way.

It seems, Vaghela will try to ensure maximum tickets for his loyalists and make them victorious in order to have his personal group of 20-30 MLAs through which he can get the post of Leader of Opposition if Congress is not successful to get power, and Chief Minister’s post of Congress is successful to get power. Vaghela has been seen doing more or less same in the past. Now if to control Vaghela, the other Congress leaders intend to reject majority of his list of candidates, they will need to have their alternative list of winnable candidates and ensure their victory.

So what’s next? Well, next will be Gujarat Congress’s Adivasi Yatra for tribal belt.

This yatra was actually announced last year but Congress somehow couldn’t hold it on time and canceled it for reasons unknown to us. Then BJP held such yatra and therefore Congress had to haphazardly decided to revive the plan of Adivasi Yatra and new dates were declared for yatra.

It’s worth noting that in 2014 Lok Sabha polls when BJP won all 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat and therefore registered its peak performance, Congress was successful to get more votes compared to BJP in only 17 assembly segments out of total 182. Among these 17 segments, 9 were in tribal areas. So here were the tribals who stayed with Congress even in peak season of BJP. But look,  Congress couldn’t hold pre-announced yatra on time in this tribal belt last year.

Yesterday, in TV discussion panel, a BJP leader sitting next to me rightly pointed out, how in recently announced municipality by-polls, Congress couldn’t announce candidates on three seats and therefore BJP was declared winner on those seats unopposed. Such a terrific lethargy on Congress’s part!

Congress if wants to give tough fight to BJP in upcoming assembly polls would need lot of course correction and self assessment on its own organizational weaknesses.

Yesterday’s gathering at University hall was good to keep morale of Congress cadre up in this difficult time. But that’s not enough.

DeshGujarat