By Japan K Pathak, Ahmedabad

When section of Patidar community people who believe they form a core support base for ruling BJP in Gujarat demanded reservation and started holding big rallies across the state in July this year, the state government took no time to make a clarification that giving reservation to Patidar community under Other Backward Class(OBC) category is constitutionally and rule-wise not possible for government.

The government choose to do what’s right and not what’s good.

The government had option to agree with Patidars by promising them reservation through a bill, but government made its stand clear that it would be unconstitutional and contrary to rules and court would turn down such decision taken by government under political compulsion. The government gave examples to support its logic.

Look what happened in Maharashtra? All political parties wanted to give reservation to Marathas under political compulsion. It was court order that reversed the decision. In Rajasthan, the government succumbed to violent agitation and granted reservation.

The Gujarat government however took risk and stood by its decision to not to succumb to demand of quota made by section of community.

When rallies turned into full-scale violent agitation, the government didn’t change its stand and dealt with agitators strictly. According tot he Times of India(November 16, 2015) report, Patidar agitators targeted 287 police vehicles, burnt 1008 private buses, 291 state transport buses, uprooted railway tracks, attacked sales tax offices, destroyed 6 police stations, ransacked 38 police chowkies, blocked highways for hours. Army had to be called to control the agitation. 8 persons were killed in police firings.

Ruling BJP was very much aware that it was risking Patidar votes, but 380 cases were registered after this agitation and accused were nabbed by police. Patidar agitators wanted government to take steps against police officers who according to their version committed atrocity during the agitation. Government refused to succumb to this demand again risking its political interests. No action has been taken against any policeman so far in connection with the actions taken against agitators during the August agitation.

The government was very clear that it could lose portion of Patidar votes – small or big in upcoming local body polls, but it went ahead and Hardik Patel and others who were constantly creating nuisance were arrested.

I have said it number of times on this website and also during TV discussions that Patidars are traditionally not caste-blinded voters. In fact at the end of Rajkot by-poll I had listed out all examples to support this logic.

I continue to back this version even after today’s local body poll results.

Yes Patidars have voted for Congress and defeated BJP in some pockets(to name few, parts of north Gujarat prominently, Morbi, also some wards in Ahmedabad and Surat Municipal Corporation) but that’s not casteism. They have voted against BJP due to police cases filed against community members(for example read some initial figures of cases filed in Mahesana district, click here), and that’s not casteism but anti-establishment feeling. Be it Unjha or Mahesana or areas of Surat or in Ahmedabad, the Patidar pockets with number of police cases against community members in connection with August violence have voted against BJP. In many other Patidar pockets, BJP has enjoyed victories.

Then the reality is Patidar forms 14-18% of voting class. Then majority of Patidars are nationalists rather than casteist. Yes, there is this new class of youths in 18-early 20 range that is rebellious due to the age factor. These youths have not seen Ram Mandir agitation, they hardly know about Abdul Latif, they know little about Madhavsinh Solanki and Chimanbhai Patel’s rule. Defunct ABVP (due to sister party in rule, which means no agitations) has not reached them. NSUI enjoys good presence in their campuses.

There are two kinds of Patidar pockets that have rejected BJP. One is the type of pockets that have rejected BJP in the backdrop of police actions against Patidar agitation. The other is a type of pockets that anyway were going to reject the BJP due to number of other factors including the cotton prices issue, post-flood dissent, lack of development, food inflation, agricultural distress and micro anti-incumbencies for number of local reasons.

Nevertheless, the Patidars though just 14-18% of total, and agitators among them very fewer impacted the entire local poll season by propelling massive anti-govt propaganda for days, weeks and months and with that building an anti-establishment atmosphere.

One thing good for Congress is that, section of Patidars have started voting for the party in at-least some urban pockets(in many rural pockets, it’s not new thing). But Congress needs to understand that this is negative vote.I t is not necessary that Patidars are attracted to Congress. The fact is they have voted for Congress just to give a message or slap to BJP due to some factors that may not be permanent in nature. Remember, positive vote is durable, while negative vote has limited shelve life.

Rajasthan government decision to grant Economic Backward Class(EBC) status to some community is likely to be challenged in court in future. The court will definitely reverse the Rajasthan govt decision, as there’s no provision of giving reservation on economic basis(also reservation above 49% is not permitted with Supreme Court directives issued in recent years). Such development will make Gujarat Congress’s promise of extending 20% reservation to upper caste economically backwards null and void.

One failure on BJP’s part has been its inability to convince the agitating Patidars that they are wrong on fundamental basis. Why agitating Patidars were not ready to listen to BJP leaders and why they went along with the casteist violence mongering group of mindless and directionless youths? Surely, credible linkages are lacking, and that’s not just the case of Patidar, but most of rural Gujarat actually. BJP, wake up, build or revive linkages to people by utilizing suitable persons!

If entire Patidar agitation was just 3-4 months long, BJP has 25 months before the assembly elections. I’m sure the party would reach out to rural Gujarat as whole and Patidars in particular to build chemistry. I’m sure, section of Patidars who had started thinking wrongfully that they can make and break any government will also adopt humble attitude and find a middle path.

(Attached with this article is video clip of relevant portion of result-day discussion on Sandesh TV in which I participated)

– DeshGujarat