Japan K Pathak

Polling for 8-seat assembly by-polls in Gujarat will take place on November 3. All 8 seats have gone vacant as Congress MLAs representing those seats resigned from the State assembly. Some of them have also resigned from Congress party and joined BJP. Some of them may also contest the by-polls on same seat as BJP candidate.

Available data suggests that voters in Gujarat have in most cases, reelected such candidates.

If we go through the data of by-elections of assembly seats in Gujarat in last ten years (post delimitation), there were 12 by-polls of State assembly seats in which BJP candidates were same those who had resigned from the State assembly and also from the Congress party and caused by-polls. Out of such 12 candidates, 9 were reelected while 3 lost elections by margin of 750 to 3807 votes.

In 2009, Congress MLA Bhavsinh Rathod resigned from the State assembly and also from Congress party. Rathod contested by-poll on same Sami Harij assembly seat as BJP candidate. He was reelected.

In 2013 Jetpur MLA Jayesh Radadiya resigned from the State assembly and also from Congress party. He later joined BJP and contested by-poll on BJP ticket. He was reelected.

In 2014 Congress MLAs Chhabil Patel, Jasha Barad, Rajendrasinh Chavda and Bavku Undhad resigned and joined BJP. All of them contested by-polls on same seats, namely Abdasa, Somnath, Himmatnagar and Lathi. Barring Chhabil Patel who lost by margin of 750 votes, all other won as BJP candidates.

In 2018, Congress MLA Kunvarji Bavaliya resigned and joined BJP. He contested by-poll on same Jasdan seat as BJP candidate and won.

Same way in 2019 by-polls of Unjha, Dhrangadhra and Manavadar assembly seats, Asha Patel, Parshottam Sabariya and Jawahar Chavda won as BJP candidate after leaving Congress and resignation from the State assembly that had caused these by-polls.

In 2019, then Congress MLAs Alpesh Thakor and Dhavalsinh Zala resigned from Congress party and from the membership of the State assembly. They contested by-polls as BJP candidates but lost by margin of 700 (Dhavalsinh Jhala) and 3807 (Alpesh Thakor) votes.

Out of 12 by-polls, 9 witnessed victories of BJP candidates who had resigned as Congress MLA from same seats. In other three seats, two were lost by BJP candidates by margin of around 700 votes only (Chhabil Patel and Dhavalsinh Zala), while one was lost by margin of around 3800 votes (Alpesh Thakor).

This perhaps suggests that voters tend to reelect such candidates in most cases. No wonder, more opposition Congress party MLAs giving resignations to get reelected as ruling party MLA.

Now let’s also briefly see what happened when Congress MLAs resigned from the State assembly and also from the party causing by-polls of assembly seats, but the candidates were different.

In 2013, Vitthal Radadiya resigned as Congress MLA from Dhoraji and joined BJP to contest Porbandar Lok Sabha election. The BJP fielded Pravin Makadiya in Dhoraji assembly seat who won. In 2014, Mandvi (ST) Congress MLA Prabhu Vasava resigned to contest Lok Sabha election from BJP. BJP fielded Hemlata Vasava on Mandvi assembly seat who lost. In 2019 Vallabh Dharaviya, MLA from Jamnagar Rural seat resigned from Congress and also from State assembly. BJP fielded Raghavji Patel as its candidate. Raghavji won. So even when candidates were different, BJP could win most seats.

So if we count all these by-polls in last 10 years, post new delimitation, that were caused because of resignations of Congress MLAs, BJP could win 11 out of 15, which is 73.33 per cent success ratio.

To sum up, let’s see what happened to those MLAs who left Congress and joined BJP. Bhavsinh Rathod after his relection left BJP ahead of 2012 assembly general elections over possible denial of party ticket to recontest. Jayesh Radadiya continues to get reelected as BJP candidates and he is currently State cabinet minister. Chhabil Patel messed up with former Abdasa BJP MLA Jayanti Bhanushali claiming that Bhanushali was responsible for his defeat in Abdasa by-poll. Bhanushali was murdered. Chhabil Patel is in jail as accused. Jasha Barad became minister of State in Anandiben Patel cabinet. He lost general elections in 2017. Rajenrasinh Chavda continues to get reelected from Himmatnagar as BJP MLA. Bavku Undhad lost general assembly poll in 2017. Party had fielded him on different assembly seat (Amreli). Kunvarji Bavaliya is State cabinet minister at present in Vijay Rupani cabinet so as Jawahar Chavda. Asha Patel and Parshottam Sabariya are currently BJP MLA. Alpesh Thakor and Dhavalsinh Zala have no current position as elected representatives. Late Vitthal Radadiya who left Congress became Porbandar MP representing BJP. Prabhu Vasava is now two term MP from Bardoli Lok Sabha seat. Vallabh Dharaviya is now active BJP worker.

There can be a separate data and comparison regarding the Congress MLAs who resigned ahead of the general elections of assembly and reelected or lost as BJP candidates. The comparison in this article is only about by-polls, in the backdrop of upcoming 8-seat by-polls.

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Update on 11 November 2020

Early this year, 8 Congress MLAs resigned from the State assembly resulting into a fresh season of assembly by-polls. The result is out. BJP has won all these 8 seats. If we add these seats to earlier count of by-polls of 15 seats that were same in nature, the total seats that went to by-election due to resignation of Congress MLAs turn out to be 23 since new delimitation is in effect. Out of 23, BJP candidates have won 19 seats, which means 82.61 per cent success. In short, in by-elections that are resulted out of resignations of Congress MLAs, BJP has registered 82.61 per cent success in last 11 years. Out of 23, there were total 17-seat by-polls in which BJP candidates were outgoing Congress MLAs themselves. Of these 17 seats, 14 witnessed victories of BJP candidates. This shows 82.35 percent strike rate of BJP.

– By-polls on 8 assembly seats on 3rd November necessitated due to resignations of Congress MLAs.

– BJP fields five outgoing Congress MLAs as its own candidates in Abdasa, Morbi, Dhari, Karjan and Kaprada. All of them were victorious. In Limbdi, Gadhada and Dang, BJP fielded its own candidates. They too were victorious.

DeshGujarat