Exit poll results for Lok Sabha Elections 2024 predict third term for Modi
June 01, 2024
Gandhinagar: Polling for the 7th and final phase of the election has concluded, and with it, the pollsters have released the exit poll findings, offering an early indication of the potential outcome of the election.
The Election Commission’s embargo on publishing exit polls, which has been in place since April 19, 2024, was lifted at 6:30 pm today. Subsequently, various media organizations released their exit polls. Exit polls are surveys conducted with voters immediately after they leave polling stations, aiming to predict the election outcome before official results are available.
Several news agencies and pollsters such as India Today – Axis My India, Republic – Matrize, Times Now – VMR, C-Voter, and Today’s Chanakya, among others, released their numbers as soon as the voting ended at 6 pm.”
Exit polls suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is on track to achieve a comfortable majority in the general election.
Over 9 exit polls have predicted a score of 350 seats for the BJP and its ally parties in the NDA.
According to most polls, the NDA could attain a two-thirds majority in the 543-member Lok Sabha, well above the simple majority mark of 272 seats.
In the 2019 election, the NDA won 353 seats, with the BJP alone securing 303 seats.
The opposition INDIA bloc, led by the Congress party, is projected to win between 125 and 165 seats.
The NDA is expected to gain in Tamil Nadu and Kerala and dominate in Karnataka.
However, it may see a decline in support in states like Bihar, Rajasthan, and Haryana.
The main opposition party, Congress, had decided not to participate in any Lok Sabha exit poll debates on television channels. Congress spokesperson and media department chairperson Pawan Khera stated that voters have cast their votes and their verdict is secured, adding that the party doesn’t “see any reason to indulge in speculation and slugfest for TRP.” However later, after today’s INDI alliance meeting, Congress leader Pawan Khera tweeted, “INDIA parties met and decided to expose the BJP and its ecosystem on the prefixed exit polls. After considering factors for and against participating in the exit polls, it has been decided by consensus that all the INDIA parties will participate in the exit poll debates on television this evening.”
BJP president J.P. Nadda claimed that Congress’s decision is an “unequivocal confirmation” that the opposition party has conceded the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. In a post on X, Nadda urged voters not to waste their votes in the seventh and final phase of the polls on Saturday, arguing that Congress typically opts out when it doesn’t expect favorable results but readily appears if it thinks it has even an outside chance.
Since the Election Commission announced the poll schedule on March 16, Modi has conducted 206 public events, surpassing his 145 engagements during the 2019 elections. Over the 76-day campaign period, he visited all five southern states, focusing on improving the BJP’s standing in regions where it previously had little success. Modi’s relentless campaigning, marked by rallies, roadshows, and 80 media interviews, highlighted his role as the BJP’s primary vote-getter. The impact of his efforts will be revealed on June 4, when the election results are declared.
In a vigorous campaign effort to boost Congress’s chances in the Lok Sabha elections, party leaders Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra each participated in over 100 public events.
It is noteworthy that there have been notable instances of incorrect exit poll predictions in recent years. However, the exit polls for the 2019 and 2014 Indian general elections almost accurately captured the overall sentiment.
In 2019, exit polls predicted an average of 306 seats for the NDA and 120 for the UPA. The actual results were significantly higher for the NDA, which won 352 seats (with the BJP alone securing 303), while the UPA won only 93 seats (with Congress getting 52). India Today-Axis My India had predicted 352 seats for the BJP-led NDA, while News24-Today’s Chanakya also predicted a big win for the BJP.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 303 seats, 21 more than its 2014 tally, while the Congress party was restricted to 52 seats.
This time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set a target of over 400 seats for the NDA, with the BJP aiming for more than 370 seats. DeshGujarat
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