Kutch: The Indian Meteorological Department, in its latest bulletin, has forecasted that the deep depression over Saurashtra and Kutch is likely to move towards the northeast Arabian Sea and strengthen into a cyclone today, August 30. If the storm intensifies further, it will be named “Asna,” a name suggested by Pakistan.

The IMD, in its bulletin, said, “The deep depression over Kachchh and adjoining areas of Saurashtra, Northeast Arabian Sea & Pakistan moved west-southwestwards with a speed of 10 kmph during past 6 hours and lay centered at 0530 hours IST of 30^th August, 2024 over Kachchh coast and adjoining areas of Pakistan & Northeast Arabian Sea near latitude 23.5°N and longitude 68.4°E, 145km west- northwest of Bhuj (Gujarat), 50 km west-northeast of Naliya (Gujarat) and 200 km southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).”

“It is likely to move nearly westwards, emerge into northeast Arabian Sea off Kachchh and adjoining Pakistan coasts and intensify into a Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours. Thereafter, it would continue to move nearly west-northwestwards over northeast Arabian Sea away from Indian coast during subsequent 2 days.” the bulletin added.

Cyclone “Asna,” a name provided by Pakistan, means “The One To Be Acknowledged Or Praised” in Urdu. The name is part of a new list of tropical cyclone names adopted by WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries in April 2020 for naming cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, including the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.

Looking back at history, this will be only the second cyclone to form in the Arabian Sea during August since 1964. It will also mark the fourth instance in 80 years of a land-based deep depression evolving into a cyclone over the Arabian Sea, with previous occurrences in 1944, 1964, and 1976.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

Warnings:

(i) Rainfall Warning for Gujarat State:

Saurashtra & Kachchh: Light to moderate rainfall at most places heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Kachchh and adjoining districts of Saurashtra on 30^th August.

(ii) Wind Warning:

30th August: Squally winds with speeds reaching 45-55 kmph, gusting to 65 kmph, are likely over the districts of the South Gujarat Region and Saurashtra & Kutch.

30th to 31st August: Squally winds with speeds reaching 55-65 kmph, gusting to 75 kmph, are very likely along and off the Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coasts, and over the northeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea.

30th August: Gale winds with speeds reaching 65-75 kmph, gusting to 85 kmph, are likely over the northeast Arabian Sea off the Gujarat and Pakistan coasts. These winds are expected to increase to 70-80 kmph, gusting to 90 kmph, from the morning of 31st August until the morning of 1st September, and will gradually decrease thereafter.

31st August to 1st September: Gale winds with speeds reaching 65-75 kmph, gusting to 85 kmph, are likely over the northwest and adjoining west-central Arabian Sea off the coasts of Pakistan and southeast Iran. These winds will gradually decrease to squally winds with speeds of 50-60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph, by the evening of 1st September.

(iii) Sea Condition:

– Squally weather with rough to very rough sea conditions is very likely along and off the Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan and north Maharashtra coasts until the 31st of August.

– Very rough to high sea conditions are expected over the northeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea off the Gujarat and Pakistan coasts from the 30th of August to the 1st of September.

(iv) Fishermen Warning:

Fishermen are advised not to venture into :

– Northeast and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea, or along and off the Gujarat, adjoining Pakistan, and north Maharashtra coasts until the 31st of August.

– Northeast & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea off Gujarat coast and along & off Pakistan coasts during 30^th August to 1^st