A map of Mansa taluka

By Japan K Pathak, Ahmedabad, 29 February, 2012

Gandhinagar district’s Mansa assembly segment is witnessing heat of by-election. Casting of vote will take place on 18th of next month. The seat is vacant due to sudden death of MLA Shri Mangaldasbhai Patel of BJP last year.

Mansa election has politically no major statewide significance, but till the time Modi is active in Gujarat politics, every election would be interesting. Moreover the general election of assembly is scheduled this year, therefore Mansa’s verdict will boost morale of winning party.

BJP is winning this seat since 1995, but not with impressive margin. Mansa is situated in Gandhinagar district, where district panchayat is with Congress. In Lok Sabha poll, Mansa segment gave more votes to Congress than the BJP. Congress is fielding Babuji Thakor who is experienced person in this electorate(lost 2007 poll in mansa by merely 3370 votes). BJP has fielded Shri DD Patel, who is relatively a new person in active politics here.

By and large, BJP has more number of committed voters in Mansa compare to Congress which has good, but little lesser number of committed voters here.

BJP is in power in the state and its influence is obvious over the voters. BJP is seen as a natural winner in by-polls of Gujarat. Modi power is ofcourse present on the side of the BJP.Individually DD Patel will ride on Patel power. While Patel is individually capable of spending money for his victory, the rival candidate will get money power from the party.

BJP has a Patel candidate while Congress has Thakor candidate. Satraps of both casts from both parties will jump in to corner maximum number of votes.

Mansa has been a short margin victory/lose area, therefore, only winning would be just good, but winning with high margin would be simply impressive. BJP will surely try for victory with good margin. Congress needs just a victory to reopen its account here.

Let’s look at the history of Mansa polls.

In 1980 Shri Ishwarbhai Chavda of Congress party won Mansa assembly election with margin of 1996 votes(less than 2,000 votes) defeating his nearest rival candidate Shri Mangaldasbhai Patel. In this election there were less than 1 lakh total voters( 97707) out of which 56.67% cast their vote.

In 1985 Hariprasad Shukla of Congress party won Mansa seat with margin of only 551 votes defeating his nearest rival candidate BJP’s Shri Mangaldasbhai Patel. There were total 114980 voters, of them 53.25% (72723voters) cast their votes.

In 1990 Shri Ishwarsinh Chavda again ventured into the field on Congress ticket and defeated his nearest rival Kantilal Patel of Janta Dal by over 10,000 votes. BJP’s Mangaldasbhai Patel got only 1003 votes (1.03% of total votes) and lost deposit. Total voters were 143369 of them 68.73% cast their vote. Ishwarsinh got 52315 votes while Kantilal 41902.

In 1995, BJP dropped Mangaldas Patel and gave ticket to Vipul Chaudhary who won the seat by margin of 9619 votes defeating nearest rival Ishwarsinh Chavda of Congress. This election was very interesting because of the third candidate Babuji Thakor who independently cornered 14437 (12.61%) votes to his side. It is believed that he cut Congress votes significantly, and therefore the BJP won this seat for the first time in history. Tri-polar election was so interesting that voting reached as high as 78.67%. There were total 148807 voters. Of them 117067(78.67%) cast their votes.

Later Vipul Chaudhary switched over to Shankersinh bapu’s camp, and therefore in 1998, Mangaldas Patel came back as the BJP candidate. Three-time defeated and once dropped candidate Mangaldasbhai proved lucky this time. He received 45096 votes while rival candidate All India Rashtriya Janata Party(AIRJP)’s Haribhai Chaudhary got 36772 votes. Thus Mangaldasbhai won the election by margin of 8324 votes. There were total 151293 voters in 1998, of them 77.05% voted.

Come to 2002, and BJP was again a winner. Mangaldasbhai Patel defeated Congress party’s candidate Haribhai Chaudhary by margin of 2673 votes. While Mangaldasbhai got 58981 votes, rival Haribhai got 56308 votes. The third candidate Samajwadi Party’s Dilipbhai Rawal cornered 3077 votes, possibly snatching away the chance of Haribhai’s victory. In this year there were 177815 votes, of them 118366 (66.57%) actually voted.

Lastly in 2007 assembly poll, Shri Mangaldasbhai Patel got 44381 votes. While Congress party’s Babusinh Thakor got 41011 votes. One independent candidate Amaratbhai Patel got 10477 votes. Another Jagdishbhai Patel got 4573 votes.

Thus Mangaldasbhai’s victory margin was merely 3370.

So in last two elections, BJP with its experienced candidate could not win Mansa with more than 3400 vote margin.

The last Lok Sabha general election, Mansa was part of the Mehsana Lok Sabha constituency. In this election BJP’s candidate Jayshreeneb Patel received 35,125 votes from Mansa, while rival candidate Jivabhai Patel secured 45565 votes. Total votes were 87,338. This means, Congress party did better than rival BJP in Mansa assembly area. But mind that, while Loksabha poll was held as per the new delimitation of Mansa assembly segment, the assembly by-poll is being held as per the old delimitation, for the last time.

Compare to 2007 election this by-election of 2012 has 3500 lesser number of voters. This is interesting, because in last election victory margin was around this figure only(3370 votes).

Observation so far suggests that Mansa’s 1,65,689 voters are likely to elect the BJP again, but Congress definitely has a chance here. This is grey area seat for both parties. And therefore intense local fight is smelling.

For those who judge the elections on the basis of cast figures, here is the list. Patels 41000, Thakors 41600, Kshatriyas 11000, Chaudhary 15000, Harijan 11734, Raval 8600, Prajapati 5800, Devi pujak 4500, Rabari 3200, Brahman 3700, Muslims 2500, others 6,700.

Updates

Gujarat govt’s decision of giving power connections in dark zone will have its impact on this election. Mansa falls in dark-zone area. As Gujarat assembly session is on, Mansa will be the center of political tourism throughout the campaign period. BJP candidate DD Patel is one more crorepati candidate. In his affidavit while filing nomination Patel has declared assets worth Rs 39 crore 95 lakh 48 thousand. Patel is President of 40 gaam patidar samaj. He has seven cars, about 17000 square meter land. On the other hand Babusinh’s total asset is Rs seven crore fifty two lakh.

A list of nominations filed

Patel Dashrathbhai Dahyabhai (BJP)
Thakor Babusinh Mohansinh (Congress)

Independents:
Mirza Yusufbeg Hussainbeg
Patel Navinchandra Atamaram
Thakor Mahotaji Kanaji
Parmar Kirit Mangaldas
Rathod Kalusinh Pratapsinh
Rathod Ishwarji Nensinh
Parmar Jitendrabhai Ishwarbhai
Purabia Chandrakant Manilal
Patel Dashrath Becharbhai
Patel Amrutlal Madhavlal
Thakor Ushaben Pashaji

Updates on 4th of March: Five candidates left finally

After the final date of withdrawal of nominations, there are five candidates left in the fray. They are: BJP’s DD Patel, Cognress’s Babusinh Thakor, and indipendent candidates Navinchandra Patel(to cut BJP’s Patel votes), Yusufbeg Mirza(to cut Congress’s Muslim votes) and Ishwarsinh Nensinh Rathod(to cut Congress’s Muslim votes).