Ahmedabad, 16 September 2014

Primary analysis of Congress’s victory on three seats suggests that local reasons have contributed to BJP’s defeat(for broader perspective read this: On assembly by-poll results ).

Congress’s victory on Mangrol seat is due to caste arithmetic. While BJP had fielded Karadia caste candidate Lakshmanbhai, the Congress party fielded Babubhai Vaja who is from Koli community, in fact he is the president of Junagadh district Koli samaj. It is unwritten rule in Gujarat’s politics that Kolis would vote for only Koli candidate. Mangrol witnessed the same. Moreover, Mangrol has good chunk of Muslim voters who are associated with certain religious institutions. Muslim voters dedicatedly voted for Congress candidate in large number here.Koli+Muslim combination made Congress victorious. Mangrol was one seat where Congress was hoping for victory. Congress had made former Lok Sabha MP of Surendranagar Somabhai Patel who belongs to Koli community as in-charge of this seat. For Muslim voters, Ahmed Patel’s presence in Delhi is enough for consolidation in favor of Congress candidate.

Congress’s victory in Khambhalia is due to outsider image of BJP candidate Mulubhai Bera who today lost assembly election for third time. Both BJP and Congress had selected Ahir community candidates here, therefore caste factor was neutralized. The other contributing factor was local rapport. While Mulibhai is from Bhanwad, Congress candidate Meraman Ahir was local.

Congress’s victory on Deesa seat is due to its candidate Govabhai Rabari who is in public life for last many years. Rabari is from Maldhari community. BJP fielded Thakor community candidate Lebji Thakor, but Thakors have been traditionally pro-Congress voters. Other problem for BJP was Lebji Thakor was relatively an unknown face compared to Govabhai who has been MLA in the past. It is also believed that local Mali community that enjoys 11.9% presence was not happy with Lebji Thakor’s choice. Like other small towns, here was also anti-incumbency against the BJP due to issues related to local municipality.