By Japan K Pathak, Ahmedabad, 16 September 2014

When you are a ruling party in power from panchayat to parliament, you have to suffer anti-incumbency in context of all levels and layers. So you are on target right from local gutter problem which is civic authority’s job, to law and order issue which is state government’s job, and petrol, diesel, gas, railway, defense, finance and foreign policy etc which are central government’s tasks. In Gujarat, where BJP is in power since 1990, barring little gaps, 7/3 victory in highly disconnected, unnoticed, unnatural, uninteresting and localized by-polls that witnessed low turnout is not a bad performance. If there was genuine anti-establishment wave – which should be after one party rules for over twenty years and it is in power from panchayat to parliament – Congress could not win just 3 seats but 7 seats.

Raised expectation bar

From the beginning, BJP had declared its goal to win all 10 seats. BJP couldn’t speak anything else but 10/10 because all 10 seats were previously occupied by it and claim of winning any lesser than 10 seats could make an impression that party was on back foot. There were takers of BJP’s 10/10 claim, because firstly, all 10 seats were previously with BJP and secondly, BJP’s similar claim of winning all 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat was proved correct. These two reasons coupled with BJP’s organizational and governmental strength in Gujarat triggered a belief among people that BJP will win all 10 seats as per its claim. Lose of three seats is therefore seen as a setback. Even lose of one seat could make same impression.

Localized polls without common goal

Then several things need to be considered while looking at the results. These were the by-polls without any goal. In assembly or Lok Sabha general elections you have a goal that you want to bring certain leader or certain party to power. Generally 60-66% of total seats are impacted by a wave involving a common goal. These by-polls were not able to make or break the government. There was no general goal too, and in absence of a general goal, there was no overall wave.It is local candidate’s job to handle local arithmetic, but it is party’s state leadership to build a general goal, an overall wave. Party’s state leadership needs to tell voters why they should elect BJP. Anandiben in her addresses during low-key campaign asked voters to vote for BJP so that Narendrabhai can be presented a birthday gift!Now, this just can’t build a goal or a wave, or can’t inject life in sleepy atmosphere around the polls! Due to lack of general motive/goal/reason to elect either BJP or Congress, the bypolls remained somewhat localized.

So when a Gujarati TV channel sought reaction from Congress’s victorious candidate Govabhai Rabari(Deesa seat) on his victory, Govabhai candidly replied that he won due to his individual service to people in all these years, and also due to local civic body related issues. At the same time, on another channel, Gujarat Congress president Arjun Modhwadia was telling a national TV news agency that central government’s policies were responsible for BJP’s defeat. In Khambhalia where BJP suffered defeat by margin of around 1200 votes, the BJP candidate was an outsider from Bhanwad who had previously lost two elections. Individual factors of all three seats won by Congress are presented on this link.

Disconnected polls

Neither Vidhansabha, nor Lok Sabha polls are going to take place in next two, four or six months. The immediate major election season in which almost all district panchayats and municipal corporations will go to poll, are to be held after one and half year from now. Generally, when by-polls are held ahead of Lok Sabha or assembly general elections, the results of by-polls affect morale of party workers and overall atmosphere. But these bypolls were most disconnected and therefore were not seen as important by voters, media and even by BJP cadre. It’s a result day today when all have started noticing it, mostly just because of BJP’s lose of three seats.

Second choice candidates

One problem with BJP in these elections was that all candidates were ‘second choice’. The ‘first choice’ candidates contested in year 2012 general elections and won. They were later selected to contest Lok Sabha, and they won. They then vacated their assembly seats. All candidates who contested in these by-polls would therefore fall in ‘second choice’ category therefore. This also contributed to lack of interest among voters.

Not natural elections

One more thing associated with these by-polls was that they were unnatural. People had visited polling booths one and half year back to vote. They had already elected their MLAs. Now after one and half year, just due to political arithmetic of BJP, they were called back to vote again.

Suppose if

BJP is on target for lose of three seats because they were previously occupied by BJP. Now suppose if these by-polls were to be held on 7 seats previously occupied by Congress party, then what could be the result? Possibly same 7/3 – 7 to BJP and 3 to Congress? I was observing tweets and statement of Gujarat Congress’s trimurti. Their overreaction to results is understandable but not valid. Even when Modi was Chief Minister in Gujarat, BJP lost Mansa bypoll in year 2012 due to local discontent and caste arithmetic. Even when Modi was Chief Minister, BJP had lost some Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat in year 2009 general elections. Even when Modi was Chief Ministerial candidate, BJP had lost some seats in year 2012 assembly general elections. Congress must not be jubilant with some victories here or there, because Gujarat by-and-large doesn’t subscribe to Congress’s central ideology and faces even now.

Anandiben

Frankly saying, Anandiben is not in position yet that one would vote for or against BJP due to her. She has just completed 100 days, and only a big blunder or a path-breaking achievement on her part can make her worth noticing. People still identify BJP with Narendra Modi at the top and local candidate at the bottom. Yes, Anandiben is in middle, but general impression is that she is just holding a position as a care-taker, the real power lies with someone who gave her this position, someone whom people of Gujarat elected as Chief Minister in year 2012 in a presidential style election in Gujarat.

Either you are in business or in politics, as you go higher and get more responsibility, you need to be selective in your communication. And when I say, importance of being selective, I don’t suggest to minimize the communication. I just say that one needs to be careful about what he/she speak, and more importantly, be careful about what he/she doesn’t need to speak. Generally, in static situation, one knows what not to speak, but in context of fresh events, dynamic circumstances and day-to-day developments, one needs to do continuous homework on what not to speak. Anandiben Patel unnecessarily described these by-polls as her (leadership’s) test. She said this in a BJP event in Deesa publicly. Actually there was no need to say this. That’s because these elections were not her test at all. At this stage, people don’t consider her as a point to vote for or against BJP. These elections were actually a test of those who vacated their seats in respective assembly constituency. These elections were test of those who were given responsibility by party organization as seat incharge – IK Jadeja in Maninagar, Amit Thakar in Limkheda, Kaushik Patel in Vadodara etc. These elections were test of those who were president of city or district units of party. These elections were test of Bhikhubhai Dalsania, RC Faldu, Om Mathur among others.

To add to this, Anandiben has changed her constituency thrice, and there is perception that she did so due to fear of defeat. She contested from Mandal, then moved to safer Patan seat and later to one of the safest seats Ghatlodia. Her test was actually when she was assigned the task of Ahmedabad district seats during assembly general elections in 2012. Her selection of Viramgam candidate was not liked by many. Later Congress won that seat.

Congress

As Congress has snatched away three seats from BJP, current Gujarat Congress president Arjun Modhwadia has been lately able to be happy. It was discussed that Modhwadia would be replaced with Bharat Solanki after the bypolls results. Bharat Solanki lost Anand Lok Sabha seat early this year. The state Congress asked him to contest from Anand assembly seat in these bypolls. Solanki refused but asked party to select Kanti Sodha Parmar as candidate and assured to make him victorious. The party agreed with him and fielded Kanti Sodha Parmar. Bharat Solanki was made incharge of Anand seat, but Kanti Parmar lost the poll. On the contrary Modhwadia who was assigned responsibility of Khambhalia seat, ensure party’s victory here. Jagdish Thakor and Sagar Rayka who were assigned responsibility of Deesa seat also brought result. Somabhai Patel who was given the task of Mangrol seat also brought result. Shankersinh, Shaktisinh, Kunvarji Bavalia, Raghavji Patel are not able to ensure victory of Congress on seats they were assigned. Naresh Rawal and Siddharth Patel were given the task of Maninagar and Vadodara seats respectively. Party was knowing it in advance that it can’t win these two seats.