By Japan K Pathak
Ahmedabad

Vijay Rupani’s election as Gujarat BJP president has brought positivity to party cadre. It’s not a booster dose, but some positivity has been certainly gained by party.

In December last year, Gujarat BJP had formally declared that new party president’s election will complete on or before 18 January. The party however couldn’t declare the name even in the second week of February. This delay was not going in favor of party. But finally the selection and election process is over and party is in comfortable position.

It is understood that Vijaybhai was told about his selection when he visited Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 3 February in Delhi.

Lot of journalist friends discuss that Vijay Rupani’s selection for the post of Gujarat BJP President is due to the fact that the party could not take risk to appoint Kshatriya, Patidar or OBC candidate for this post in present circumstances(Vijaybhai is by-the-way Jain Vanik – a minority community so here’s double dose of Baniya buddhi, Amit Shah in centre and Rupani in state). I don’t agree with this. In fact thinking on such line would be injustice to Rupani, as he has been actually selected on his merit. Elevation of general secretary or vice president to the post of president is very natural in party. Rupani has been general secretary of Gujarat BJP for a long time. He resigned from the post of general secretary only last year in the month of May due to his induction to state cabinet.

Speaking more about his merits, Rupani belongs to Jan Sangh era. He has worked at college leader level (Dharmendrasinhji college, Rajkot when Arun Jaitley or Sushil Modi were college leaders in Delhi and Bihar), municipal corporation level(8 years as standing committee chairman and also as Mayor of Rajkot), parliament level(Rajya Sabha MP), party level(general secretary and state spokesperson) and also in government as a minister and head of 20 point programme implementation committee. Thus he has a long experience, and he is senior enough to be acceptable.

Rupani is cordial with all sections of party, be it the Delhi section which includes Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, or Gujarat section which includes the state government and state BJP organization or RSS section – nationally and at the state level.

In the recent past it has been observed that BJP was losing plot particularly in rural Saurashtra. If you observe, the Patidar agitation in Surat or in Ahmedabad’s Bapunagar area was directly connected to Saurashtra. Vijaybhai is a person who has worked at root level in Saurashtra extensively. He has personal contacts in all talukas across the region. Rajkot is de facto a capital of Saurashtra region. Vijaybhai is from Rajkot. For last some time, Vijaybhai was undeclared incharge/guardian of party’s Saurashtra affairs. His tours and linkages will help party in regaining its plot in rural Saurashtra. While Prime Minister and Chief Minister are from North Gujarat and Ahmedabad regions, Vijaybhai if can take care of Saurasthra well, it will be important service to party at this juncture. Rupani has announced today that he would be available to party workers every week on Monday and Tuesday between 10.00 am and 6.00 pm. I believe Rupani will extensively tour during rest of the days of week which would prove important.

As two centers of power is certainly not good idea in politics, Modi made RC Faldu – someone hailing from politically influential Patidar community in Saurashtra but actually a rubber stamp type, silent, low profile and unimpressive communicator as president of state unit of party. In May 2015 when Vijaybhai and Shankar Chaudhdary were shifted from organization to government, the organization started relying more on organizational general secretary Bhikhubhai Dalsania for key decisions, and IK Jadeja for communication. It was solely a team work without face. Party was not effectively putting forward its stand on controversial issues. Party was not effectively clarifying its side on various issues. When Modi was Chief Minister, he could handle the things – decisions and communication both, but that was not the case anymore.

With Vijay Rupani as party president, it will be a team work with a face. Vijay Rupani is certainly better communicator. He will be certainly not considered a rubber stamp. He can bring back ‘garima’ and strong image of the post of state party president. At the same time he will be able to maintain sense of proportion and will not allow to become himself another center of power. He will be able to connect grass route to state leadership and even beyond that upto the level of national president of party and prime minister when need arise.

On this phrase ‘team work’ I would like to clarify that whoever is party president in Gujarat BJP, the decision making process remains a team work in organization. Organizational General Secretary who comes from RSS is key person in decision making process. Party high command from Delhi, especially the one from RSS background remains another key person. In Gujarat’s case, Shri Narendra Modi remains final decision maker. Though he doesn’t micro manage the Gujarat unit of party anymore, on very important issues, he remains final word. Amit Shah and Chief Minister also have their say.

Things to watch out in next couple of years:

– To counter anti-incumbency he will need to strongly communicate the actual works done by the BJP government in state and centre.

– Congress has its committed vote bank. In many areas Muslims would certainly not vote for BJP. The BJP therefore has to consolidate Hindu voters largely. If Congress play a card of Muslims+Committed Congress voters+ One Hindu caste on its side – BJP would face difficulty. Politically speaking Patidar agitation or Kshatriya Thakor agitation is more or less on this line. The challenge will be to unite the voters. Unity will have to be achieved. More than development, in 2017 unity will prove important.

– Two monsoons before year 2017 elections will be very important. Past two monsoons were not upto the mark. Flood will not make much difference, but insufficient rain, crop failure situation will need to be tackled well. If there’s really a problem, it will be have to converted into opportunity through extensive efficient work and excellent communication.

– Two top Gujarati newspapers have started ranting against the BJP government well ahead of election year this time. Rupani will need to utilize all other friendly media entities very well to neutralize them. If he doesn’t do that, we don’t see anyone other capable of doing it at this juncture.

– Voters in Gujarat have reelected the governments they elected in previous general election of assembly, 10 out of 12 times. 2 times when people didn’t repeat their choice, there were agitatios – Navnirman and Anamat and also there was a situation of water scarcity(on both occasions) followed by elections. Gujarat is a business state, and people love stable government unless you mess up with them. So on no occasion there should be a large scale public vs govt agitation involving mass across castes, classes and geography.

– Anandiben is completing 75 years this year. She will be in margarshak mandal league either this year or if party extends her term then next year. Lot of anti-incumbancy will go along with her possible exit(at 75 as per party’s rule). With new party president now, and new face for government(not sure before or after elections) in next couple of years, Gujarat BJP will enter another era.

– DeshGujarat