Gandhinagar: Vav assembly seat in Gujarat will go to by-polls on November 13. What are the chances of ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning a by-election that comes after the Lok Sabha polls? If by-polls post Lok Sabha elections after new delimitation in effect (Post 2009) are analyzed the success rate of ruling BJP is nearly 69 percent.

2009: 6 seats went to by-polls after Lok Sabha elections, BJP gained 4, Congress 01

6 assembly seats went to by-polls as the MLAs resigned after getting elected to Lok Sabha. The seats were Danta, Dehgam, Jasdan, Dhoraji, Kodinar, Sami-Harij.

In Danta, Congress MLA Mukesh Gadhvi resigned, and BJP won the seat in by-poll.

In Dahegam and Jasdan seats, Congress MLAs Jagdish Thakor and Kunvarjibhai Bavaliya resigned. BJP won these two seats in by-polls.

In Dhoraji, then Congress MLA Viththal Radadia resigned. The Congress retained the seat in the by-poll with victory of Vitthalbhai’s son Jayesh Radadiya.

Congress won Kodinar seat, which went to by-poll after BJP MLA Dinubhai Solanki was elected to the Lok Sabha.

On Sami-Harij seat, Bhavsinh Rathod resigned as Congress MLA to join the BJP and contested Lok Sabha election but lost. He subsequently contested by-election and retained his seat, this time as a BJP candidate.

2014: 9 assembly seats went to by-polls after Lok Sabha election, Congress gained 3

In 2014, following the Lok Sabha elections, 9 assembly constituencies required by-polls as MLAs of these seats had resigned after becoming Lok Sabha MPs.

Among these seats was Maninagar, where incumbent Chief Minister Narendra Modi resigned as MLA after becoming Prime Minister.

The other eight seats included Khambhalia (MLA Poonam Madam became Lok Sabha MP from Jamnagar), Anand (MLA Dilip Patel became Lok Sabha MP from Anand), Limkheda (MLA Jaswantsinh Bhabhor became Lok Sabha MP from Dahod), Deesa (MLA Liladhar Vaghela became Lok Sabha MP from Patan), Matar (MLA Devusinh Chauhan became Lok Sabha MP from Kheda), Talaja (MLA Bharati Shiyal became Lok Sabha MP from Bhavnagar), Mangrol (MLA Rajesh Chudasama became Lok Sabha MP from Junagadh), and Tankara (MLA Mohan Kundariya became Lok Sabha MP from Rajkot).

Although all the MLAs on these seats were from the BJP, the party this time only managed to retain 6 of these 9 seats in the by-elections, losing Deesa, Khambhalia, and Mangrol to Congress.

2019: 4 seats went to by-polls after Lok Sabha election, Congress gained 01

In 2019,  4 seats went to by-polls due to MLAs of those seats resigned as they moved to Lok Sabha.

Independent MLA from Lunawada, Ratansinh Rathod, resigned and became Lok Sabha MP on BJP ticket.

BJP MLAs Hasmukhbhai Patel from Amraiwadi and Bharatsinhji Dabhi from Kheralu also became members of the Lok Sabha, leading to their resignation.

Tharad seat went vacant after BJP MLA Parbatbhai Patel resigned following his election to Lok Sabha.

In these by-polls, the BJP retained 3 seats, while Congress gained 01 assembly seat, namely Tharad where Gulabsinh Rajput emerged winner.

Overall picture

To sum up, the data reveals that since 2009(new delimitation), by-elections have been held on 19 seats due to MLAs resigning to join the Lok Sabha. Out of these 19-seat by-polls, the BJP won 13, achieving a success rate of approximately 68.42%. In comparison, the Congress Party secured only 6 seats in these by-elections. In the case in which Congress MLAs resigned after getting elected to Lok Sabha and subsequent by-polls on respective assembly seat – which were Danta, Dehgam, Jasdan, Dhoraji – BJP snatched all barring Dhoraji, thus the victory ratio of 75%. DeshGujarat