In Civic polls, 30 to 45% voting is considered normal

According to very early primary conclusion at the end of the voting for six Municipal Corporations in Gujarat, the average voting percentage of today’s civic poll could be anything between 36 to 46%. The correct and perfect figure will be out on Monday. Any figure you get before it, would be just speculative figure. And difference between speculative and actual figure can be as high as 8%(in 2005 it happened like that).

Should today’s civic poll voting be considered as low turnout? Yes it is low, because we would always wish that the voting should be above 90%. But that is an ideal Utopian thought. Practically about 60% voting is considered achievable.

However in civic polls, anything between 30 to 40% is just O.K. looking at history.

In year 2005 Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation election, turnout was only 30.39 per cent, in 2000, it was 32.88 per cent, and in 1995, it was 39.35 per cent. So this year, anything between 30.39% and 39.35% should be considered normal.

Let’s go to the history of other Municipal Corporation polls held in year 2005 in Gujarat. Surat witnessed 39.63%, Bhavnagar 39.30%, Rajkot 39.79% voting. None of these three cities crossed 40% turnout. While Jamnagar witnessed 43.80% turnout, Vadodara witnessed 43.96% voting. This was little better than the other cities.

So the voting figures are not shocking if between 30 to 40%. Anything above 40% would be good, and anything below 30% will be bad.

The voting was very low in the morning because of Navratri and Sunday. However voting between 3 to 5 pm was some consolation for all those who were expecting at least sensible turnout.

Some people discuss either party’s winning chances on the bases of voters turnout. However this is not correct yardstick according to me. In year 2000, Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation election witnessed 32.88% voting and Congress came to power. In 2005 when turnout was more or less and about 30.39%, BJP came to power. So equating either party’s victory or loss with voting percentages is not correct practice, at least in local polls.