IMD forecasts below-normal monsoon for Gujarat in 2023

Gandhinagar: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has published its long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon in 2023, which predicts that Gujarat will receive “below normal” rainfall this year.

According to the IMD’s map, most areas of the state are expected to receive 45% to 55% of their average rainfall.

Fig.1.Probability forecast of tercile categories* (below normal, normal, and above normal) for the seasonal rainfall over India during the 2023 southwest monsoon season (June -September). The figure illustrates the most likely categories as well as their probabilities. The white shaded areas represent climatological probabilities for all the tercile categories. The probabilities were derived using the MME forecast prepared from a group of best coupled climate models.(*Tercile categories have equal climatological probabilities, of 33.33% each).

Gujarat and India have witnessed an altered weather pattern during the winter and summer seasons. Notably, The state has received the highest amount of precipitation in over a decade since March 1, with 14.2mm of rainfall, which is a significant increase from the usual 0.3mm.