“Very heavy rain, massive flood in August 2010 in Gujarat”

“Very heavy rain, massive flood in August 2010 in Gujarat”
By Japan K Pathak
Ahmedabad, DeshGujarat, 10 July 2010





Way back in year 2002, I read an article about how a new south Indian newspaper covered huge rural readership through publishing agriculture related add on pages. I threw that article on my editor’s table and he was immediately convinced to publish agriculture pages for rural edition once a week. The charge was given to me. Completely urban guy, I was not knowing even a little bit about agriculture at that time, but I accepted the job. And then came an agriculture related page in mainstream Gujarati newspaper. The page was so successful that from once in a week, it was converted in to twice in a week page. Gradually the page became rural development page and many other issues like water, sanitation, animal husbandry etc were covered. In the course of this edition, I learned many things about agriculture and rural economics. When Divya Bhaskar was launched in year 2003, I was called back to main reporting team. Even today in corner of my room, I have proudly kept all agricultural pages that I produced in Gujarat Samachar’s rural edition in year 2002-2003.

While doing agricultural edition, I came into contact of many farmers, farmer activists and some genuine rural-side leaders across Gujarat. One of the series of articles I carried out was about monsoon prediction and local techniques related to that. I also visited Lok Bharti Sanosara to meet a very well know rural person who used to predict rain fall according to an old script that he was possessing. In the course of ‘rain predictors exploration’ I came across one Navindanji Ratnu. He had sent me a letter with prediction of coming monsoon. His predictions were specific, and according to him, based on Nakshatras. More so, he had also sent an article about how to predict monsoon based on Panchang and Nakshatras. I personally went to Ratnu’s house and listened to his logics about rain prediction based on details of Nakshatras, their vehicles, onset day, time given in Panchang book. Navindanji Ratnu said that modern meteorological science predicts monsoon just before its onset, but our Panchang books are published way back in Diwali time, one year back. He said he predicts rain based on details given in Panchang for last 25 years successfully. And rarely when detail in Panchang has got some error, he fails to predict rain properly.

Navindanji Ratnu generated interest because, he was not astrologer, he was not popularity seeker, he was not a poor person wanting to earn bread and butter based on his prediction. He genuinely wanted people to believe in traditional Nakshatra based science of predicting rain.

So we published his predictions on agriculture information page, and look what happened! His predictions were proven correct, date to date wise correct! Next year we published his predictions again, and they were proven correct ditto! This went on for three years and it was success.

Encouraged by his perfect predictions for continuous three years, we published Navindanji’s predictions once again consequently for fourth year, but this time, he was promoted. His predictions were published on the front page of the newspaper. He had predicted that there would not be a good monsoon that year and the government should ban export of groundnut outside the state. He also advocated for not to release water from dams and to conserve the water because there could be a water shortage later on in that year.

Sadly, this fourth time, Navindanji’s prediction went wrong. Government didn’t release water from dam and conserved it, and that caused great flood in Surat. Rainfall was normal. There was no scarcity situation as per Navindan Ratnu’s prediction. Ratnu later wrote me a letter that he had read only one Panchang and failed to study other Panchangs too. He said earlier he was studying Panchang published by three to four different publications for accurate prediction. But this time he failed to do so, and therefore the errors in Panchang on which he relied dominated his predictions adversely.

So, in year 2007 and 2008 and 2009, neither Navindanji sent his predictions and neither I as a journalist went to him. But look what happened in year 2010! Last week, Navindanji came to my place with his prediction of year 2010’s monsoon.

According to Navindan Ratnu’s year 2010 monsoon prediction, Gujarat will face a massive flood in first 15 days of the month of August. This would be a massive massive flood according to Navindanji. According to him Surat, Jamnagar, Porbandar will face great flood. The situation in coastal Gujarat will be dangerous. Crop will be washed away. Power, communication, road, rail, air traffic will be disrupted.

Navindanji forcefully reiterated that this would happen in August for sure. He said he had even sent a fax message to the Chief Minister alerting him about the danger that is approaching the state in a month time. Navindanji also submitted his prediction to his Guru the head priest of Ahmedabad’s Kalupur Swaminarayan 5 asked him to cancel programmes between 3 August to 16 August.

Next day this highly learned old man in his 60s, originally from Jamnagar, visited me again to convince me that this time he had predicted the situation based on study of three-four different panchangs and also based on his years long experience.


Following are the predictions of Navindanji Ratnu for this year monsoon(2010):

22 June to 5 July – Very less rain in some parts and not at all in other parts. Wherever there’s rain, it would come speedily and would go speedily.

6 July to 19 July – Wide spread rain fall suitable for sowing would be experienced.

20 July to 2 August – Wide spread – mediocre and at some places good rainfall will be experienced.

3 August to 16 August – A major disaster of very heavy rain fall in the state. Neighboring states will also be affected.

17 August to 29 August – Aggressive postures of rain God will lower down. Wide spread mediocre rain fall will continue. Insects nuisance will be experienced.

30 August to 12 September – Proportion of rain will lower down – rain at some places and not at all at other places(Khanda Vrushti)

13 September to 26 September – No rain

27 September to 9 October – Little rain and Khanda Vrushti(rain at some places and not at all at other places)

10 October to 23 October – Some showers somewhere. Monsoon will say bye bye.

So, I am now waiting for the month of August with fingers cross. Navindanji has taught me a science of his prediction based on Nakshatras. Each time period given above(like say 22 June to 5 July) consists one Nakshatra. I would share the science of Navindanji’s prediction in detail in August if proven correct. While Octopus baba and Mani Popat both are generating much interesting, I thought I should write this.


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