This Wikileaks cable of year 2007(from American ambassador in India to the U.S. department of state) is interesting. Though the Gujarat part of this cable is mostly in reference to Gujarat’s 2007 assembly election, the important and interesting part is that the cable shows how America looked at Gujarat, Gujarat Congress, and Narendra Modi. Another interesting observation is that the United States was closely monitoring Gujarat assembly election in 2007.

How America looked at Gujarat in 2007

-Gujarat election result are crucial to whether Congress Party moves forward with the nuclear agreement.
-Gujarat is a large state, with 26 seats in Parliament.
-Gujarat is a prosperous state which is leading the Indian economic resurgence.
-Gujarat is one of the most “saffron” states in the country.
-Narendra Modi is the poster boy of anti-Muslim Hindu nationalist ideology.
-The Gujarat unit of the Congress Party is weak and poorly organized.
-It is because of the importance the Congress Party attaches to Gujarat that it is bringing in its top leaders to campaign in the state.
-Gujarat Elections Holds the Key

Complete text of the Gujarat part of the leaked cable

Tuesday, 06 November 2007, 13:18
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 004881
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
EO 12958 DECL: 11/05/2017
TAGS PREL, PARM, TSPL, KNNP, ETTC, ENRG, TRGY, IN
SUBJECT: PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE, GUJARAT ELECTIONS KEY TO GOI
APPROACH ON US-INDIA NUCLEAR DEAL
REF: A. NEW DELHI 4857 B. NEW DELHI 4842 C. NEW DELHI 4835 D. NEW DELHI 4823 E. NEW DELHI 4803 F. NEW DELHI 4764 G. NEW DELHI 4763 H. MUMBAI 604 I. NEW DELHI 4720 J. NEW DELHI 4638 K. NEW DELHI 4616 L. NEW DELHI 4589
Classified By: Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)

Gujarat Elections Holds the Key(title of the Gujarat part of the cable)

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9. (C) Embassy agrees with many observers who believe that if the Parliamentary debate is a draw, the Gujarat election result in December are crucial to whether Congress Party moves forward with the nuclear agreement. Gujarat is a large state, with 26 seats in Parliament. It is a prosperous state which is leading the Indian economic resurgence. It is also one of the most “saffron” states in the country. The BJP has won the last five state assembly elections. It crushed the Congress in 2002 in a lop-sided win in the aftermath of the 2002 riots. By most accounts, Narendra Modi, the poster boy of anti-Muslim Hindu nationalist ideology, has an edge to retain his Chief Minister position for a third straight time (Ref C and H). The state unit of the Congress Party is weak and poorly organized.

10. (C) If the Congress Party can put in a healthy performance to make a dent in this BJP bastion, observers believe the Congress Party will feel politically strong to risk (or even call) a mid-term national poll. In this case, the Prime Minister and the Congress Party would challenge the Left parties by moving forward with the IAEA on the safeguards agreement. It is because of the importance the Congress Party attaches to Gujarat that it is bringing in its top leaders to campaign in the state. Sonia Gandhi launched the campaign over the weekend in Anand, Gujarat. Rahul Gandhi is expected to campaign in the state. If, on the other hand, the Congress Party is trampled again in Gujarat and fails to improve on its 48 seats (out of 182 total seats in the assembly), it will feel vulnerable and will not be tempted to risk early elections. It will then require extraordinary political courage for the UPA to carry out the IAEA talks, which place its full term in office in jeopardy.

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