Ahmedabad, 12 December 2012

This is the 12th article of JP’s ‘Gujarat Election 2012′ series on DeshGujarat. In this series, the first article was about the possible election schedule, the second article made the point that Gujarat elections in 2012 are incomparable with Gujarat assembly elections of the past. The third article was about abolished seats. The fourth article was about newly added seats. The fifth article was about changes in the reserved seats for SC/STs and its impacts over political career of RC Faldu, Nitin Patel, Pradipsinh Jadeja and others. In the sixth article I shared the final delimitation order with some historical background. In seventh article I talked about the results of 2009 Lok Sabha polls in Gujarat perspective. In 8th article I talked about an interesting pattern, the voters of Gujarat follow, in ninth article in this series you read ‘When do voters of Gujarat change the government they elected‘, the tenth article of this series was part two of When do voters of Gujarat change the government they elected. The 11th article of this series was:How ‘ekmat’ Gujarat has been so far. Now here is the 12th article in series.

Ahmedabad, 12 December 2012

Scene 1.

Three months back I met a Congress leader and it was very frank discussion with him. He summed up the Gujarat poll strategy in one line. He said there are 55 seats that guarantee BJP’s victory and there are 55 seats guarantying Congress’s victory. Other 72 seats can throw any result with just 2% swing. The Congress leader was hoping that Keshubhai’s third force will help to snatch away BJP’s committed Patel votes and offer victory to Congress candidates.

He said in the last elections(2007) Congress had given tickets to Keshubhai loyalists in Saurashtra region, but Patels were still not comfortable to vote for Congress, and therefore Keshubhai camp’s Patel candidates couldn’t win.

The Congress leader told me that Congress had even given a ticket to Gordhan Zadafia’s wife’s brother in Palitana, but he too lost the poll.

“We wasted our seats. We didn’t give tickets to our own Congress men and relied on Keshubhai loyalists who had left the BJP. Only Bavku Udhad could win,” the Congress leader said.

“This time Keshubhai’s Patel candidates are not contesting on Congress ticket, so those who are not comofortable to vote for Congress can go for GPP, and thus damage the BJP votes,” he further said.

Scene 2

Now lets recall me an informal talk with Gordhan Zadafia. Though it was an informal discussion, I made a news story out of it.

Zadafia told me that caste based politics will trouble Modi.

He said that BJP is always in trouble when casteism surfaces.

“In the name of nationalism, Kalyansinh won Uttar Pradesh. But when casteism again marginalized nationalism, the BJP lost Uttar Pradesh,” Zadafia had told me.

“The politics in 2012 is the politics of castes and it is proven that whenever caste based politics emerges, BJP tastes loss,” Zadafia said adding that casteism will finish the BJP.

I had put an observation in that story:As majority of voters(92%) in Gujarat are Hindus and major part of them is considered pro-BJP, the Congress and MJP – two opposition parties are applying all force for successful division in Hindu votes on the basis of castes.

Zadafia who met Sonia Gandhi just before the 2007 elections, Zadafia who likes Sonia Gandhi’s page on Facebook, Zadafia who has used helicopters in this poll campaign has recently said that his Mayavati style social engineering will keep BJP away from power.

Zadafia’s social engineering has been taken seriously thanks to his 2009 poll record. In 2009 Lok Sabha elections, his MahaGujarat Janata Party contested 18 Lok Sabha seats and vowed to damage BJP votes. Though he couldn’t damage much on other seats, he could make some damage in Bhavnagar district where he himself was contesting against BJP’s not-so-popular Kshatriya candidate Rajendrasinh Rana.

Rana won the election, but Zadafia successfully mobilized large number of Patel votes. For any independent or small party candidate, it is very difficult to cross the mark of even 10,000 votes. But Zadafia with his novice MahaGujarat Janata Party secured over 1,56,000 votes. However BJP could win this seat by a narrow margin of over 5,000 votes, largely because Independent candidate Harin Makwana secured over 12,000 votes and damaged Congress’s chances.

So Gordhanbhai could unite Patel votes in a big way and though he lost the election, he successfully proved a point that he was able to consolidate Patel votes in significant number. Of course Gordhanbhai could get over 1.5 lakh votes, because he had long experience of working in his native Bhavnagar district as four time election manager of MP Rajendrasinh Rana. However it is interesting to think whether Zadafia can mobilize good number of votes elsewhere, and whether he can get equal success when there’s not Patel vs Kshatriya poll battle!

Scene 3

In January 2011, Rajkot based Patel Brass firm owner Naresh Patel who is also heading couple of charitable trusts, organized a gathering of Leuva Patel(LP) community in Kagwad on Rajkot-Porbandar highway. Naresh Patel proposed to build a Khodaldham mandir and six other mandirs at a cost of 100s of crore. Khodal is one of the Kuldevis(goddesses) of Leuva Patel community. Naresh Patel was of opinion that Patels should unite and come out as a united political force. Naresh Patel believes that maximum number of Patels should be given tickets by political parties and Patels should vote for Patels. He believes that Shakti(of community) should be showcased through Bhakti. Naresh Patel believes that not only Gujarat, but every state has progressed. He thinks that someone else should be made Chief Minister instead of Modi.

In January 2012 Naresh Patel called a press conference in Amdavad. Gordhan Zadafia was sitting next to him. Patel and Zadafia announced to hold a large gathering of Leuva Patels at Kagwad. The gathering was attended by all political parties, but Keshubhai Patel was given chance to address. Keshubhai in his speech said that there’s ‘Bhay’ in Gujarat. Then Keshubhai was invited to several mass weddings and other functions of Leuva Patel community. Later Gordhanbhai and Keshubhai jointly launched Gujarat Parivartan Party. Naresh Patel and others continued to tour in villages of Saurashtra to appeal Patel voters to vote massively. They also organized mass wedding and other functions with Keshubhai and other GPP leaders on stage.

Impact assessment

In last many years, Gujarat has witnessed only one-to-one political fight with two main serious contenders in fray. This time there’s a tripartite fight in some constituencies, mainly in Saurashtra, but also on some seats in Surat and Amdavad.

While Congress thinks it has nothing to lose(until there’s Punjab like situation where third party caused damage to Congress instead of ruling party), the BJP is trying its hand with a new phenomena called tripartite fight on some seats.

Keshubhai and his team had tried much to damage the BJP in 2007 too, but yielded no success. But this time, everything is out and open in more strategic and organized way with a new political party, and Khodaldham movement enjoying inroads in one community. The message of LPism (Leuva Patelism) has reached almost each Patel family. Whether they accept it or not, is other thing.

Congress leaders believe that GPP may win only one or two seats but shall damage BJP votes on many more seats, which is good for Congress. GPP wishes Congress to extend behind-the-curtain support to some of its candidates who are expected to do well. Congress has not fielded its candidate against Keshubhai in Visavdar. Keshubhai addressed a press conference in a hotel owned by Congress leader in Amdavad. In Saurashtra, there’s strong buzz about Congress’s backdoor funding to Keshubhai’s party.

BJP has avoided Keshubhai factor at mega level. But at micro level the second cadre of party has constantly tried damage control. In addition to this, the party has fully prepared to fight the polls on the polling day itself by ensuring maximum voting in its favor. BJP believes that its own Leuva Patel candidates also enjoy hold over the community and they should be able to fight the seat wise battles.

At mega level, the main point is that Narendra Modi is not anti-Patel, he is not anti-Kshatriya, he is not anti-Kolis too. Modi is neither pro nor against any such community. This is his image, and it is real too. He belongs to other Backward Class(OBC), but he has maintained his caste-less image throughout his political career. GPP can convert some Patels into an anti-Modi, but can’t convert Modi into anti-Patel, not even in perception. And this is the strong point of Modi, and weak point of the political movement that wants to derail Modi banking on Leuva Patel votes.

The other point is that, Leuva Patel or any other voter in Gujarat would not like to “waste” his/her vote. ‘Vote kon bagade’ is common phrase used on the polling day in Gujarat. A common voter thinks that he/she should not vote for someone who is not going to win. A common voter impacted by pan Gujarat political mega wave thinks “why should I waste my vote for a candidate whose party is not likely to get power in the state? How he would serve me without having his party in power in the state?” Such feeling helps BJP and Modi.

If you ask who is the topmost living person from Leuva Patel community in Gujarat, I would reply Pramukh Swami. If you ask who enjoys Pramukh Swami’s blessings, even a child would reply “Narendra Modi”. Similarly Modi personally and BJP in general have excellent inroads among the community. Local units of BJP have mobilized its Surat based Leuva Patel sympathizers, and brought them to their native places in Saurashtra to hold night sittings with community people. In such sittings, the villagers are told the stories of earlier days when there was not a single Patel minister in Madhavsinh Solanki government.

Overall, the elements like; 1. the impact of relatively poor rain last monsoon, 2. anti-incumbency at local level, 3. poor law and order situation in Rajkot, 4. some votes going to GPP because of strong candidate and 5. new delimitation are making Saurashtra polling interesting.

No one is in position to judge the direction of swing at present. Some believe that swing against BJP will create loss of 20 seats, some believe there will be a Punjab like situation and GPP will damage Congress votes. Some suggest that even in multi party fights in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, the voters deliver clear verdict. Then some people give example of Raj Thackeray effect in Maharashtra which successfully divide votes and turned out to be decisive. So the debate becomes extremely interesting. And Keshubhai should be thanked for making the election somewhat interesting.

Modi is banking big on mega wave, he has bulldozed the caste politics in Gujarat successfully in last two elections, but whenever fresh election is announced, the ghost of caste and communities reemerges.

Modi is also banking big on wisdom and wiseness of common voters. The Chanakyas of Gujarat(I used this title for voters of Gujarat in 2007) are ready to vote again.

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