New Delhi: The C-DEP Research and Centre for WTO Studies, Ministry of Commerce, today released its report titled “Impact of Anti-Dumping Duties in India”, which examines the effects of anti-dumping duties on downstream costs, inflation, MSMEs, domestic capacity, and investments. The report was released by Pritam Banerjee, Head, Centre for WTO Studies, Ministry of Commerce, and was presented at a roundtable with leaders of India’s core domestic industries. The event brought together industry leaders from sectors including chemicals, polymers, textiles, and other manufacturing industries, whose domestic manufacturing capacities have been deeply impacted by dumping from China and other countries. These domestic manufacturers represent over Rs 2 lakh crore in turnover.

Anti-dumping duties are WTO-compliant trade-remedy instruments that are levied globally by governments to safeguard their domestic manufacturers from predatory pricing by foreign exporters, who dump imported products at prices lower than those in their home countries.

The report estimates that imposing anti-dumping duties on the current set of products being evaluated by the government would lead to an estimated annual forex saving of INR 28,540 crore (USD 3 billion) and facilitate domestic investments of INR 70,000 crore. A study of 33 products shows that the economic loss from dumped imports in the current period is approximately INR 1.54 lakh crore and is projected to rise to between INR 2.68 lakh crore and INR 2.70 lakh crore by 2030, with jobs at risk increasing from around 24,000 today to between 38,000 and 42,000. These findings show the long-term consequences of import-driven market distortions on India’s economy and employment.

The report also finds that anti-dumping duties have a negligible impact on downstream costs and an immeasurably low impact on inflation. Analysis of 56 DGTR-recommended cases where duties were not implemented indicates that the median effect on final consumer prices would have been just 0.023 percent, with over 91 percent of cases below 0.10 percent. The inflation contribution of 21 pending anti-dumping duty products remains below 0.01 percentage points, even under a conservative 50 percent pass-through assumption. This demonstrates that duties do not meaningfully increase prices for end consumers while helping restore fair competition for domestic producers.

The report highlights the disproportionate impact of the non-implementation of anti-dumping duties on MSMEs. Sustained dumped imports have forced shutdowns in sectors such as sublimation-transfer paper, phone back covers, and Nylon Filament Yarn. Non-implementation of anti-dumping duties is leading to a catastrophic impact on domestic industries, including MSMEs, and has led to increased import dependence and destruction of domestic capacity. In contrast, timely anti-dumping duty interventions in sectors such as cable ties, ceramic ware, and vacuum flasks have allowed domestic MSMEs to sustain operations, expand production, and attract new investments.

Data analysed in the report show that India is not misusing anti-dumping duties. On the contrary, the USA and many other nations are using anti-dumping duties on a much larger scale than India. The average duration of anti-dumping duties in India is 6.97 years, compared to the global average of 11.19 years. Duty rates in India typically remain lower than those in countries such as the United States and China, which have imposed duties as high as 632%. These practices have been consistent with international norms, as India’s anti-dumping duty recommendations have always been upheld in WTO disputes.

The report indicates the need for the immediate application of anti-dumping duties recommended by DGTR in order to safeguard domestic capacities while reducing the outflow of precious foreign exchange. It is detrimental to the Indian economy and the rupee to allow dumped imports in areas where India has sufficient domestic capacities. Timely imposition of anti-dumping duties will also ensure adequate investments in domestic capacities today, prevent a large demand-supply gap by 2030, reduce India’s dependence on imported goods, strengthen industrial resilience, and contribute to fulfilling the Prime Minister’s vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047. DeshGujarat